With the 2021 NFL regular season just around the corner, the futures market is booming with a near-endless catalog of team and player props. Thankfully, Awesemo and Shawn Zhan have developed a tool specifically designed to tackle the NFL prop bets market: The Awesemo NFL Season Long Player Props Tool. Utilizing the tool, we will explore each major section of the current NFL player futures market to identify the best NFL prop bets and odds available per category. Today, the focus will be trying to find the best rushing props.
Past Regular Season Rushing Leaders by Year
Although previous odds are difficult to dig up, bettors can loosely use the past leaders in yards rushing as a barometer for the plausible comparisons of then and now.
- 2020: Derrick Henry (2,027)
- 2019: Derrick Henry (1,540)
- 2018: Ezekiel Elliott (1,434)
- 2017: Kareem Hunt (1,327)
- 2016: Ezekiel Elliott (1,631)
- 2015: Adrian Peterson (1,485)
- 2014: Demarco Murray (1,845)
- 2013: LeSean McCoy: (1,607)
- 2012: Adrian Peterson (2,097)
- 2011: Maurice Jones-Drew (1,606)
NFL Player Props: Best Yards Rushing Odds & Bets
Jalen Hurts Over 700.5 Yards Rushing (+107, SugarHouse)
Jalen Hurts played 15 games last season, started four of them and logged rushing attempts in 11 games for 354 yards (5.6 yards per attempt). The Awesemo Player Props Tool suggests he will have more success on the ground, projecting Hurts for 867 yards rushing in the 2021 regular season, with 66% odds of reaching the over and an estimated 24% return on investment. Though the Props Tool’s prop is 45 yards short of the over on SugarHouse, Hurts’ projection still leaves over 150 yards of clearance to work with.
Though it surrendered the most sacks last season (65), the Eagles’ offensive line was decimated by injuries. Offensive tackle Lane Johnson played just seven games, while the offensive line played numerous combinations with players out of position. Now replenished with healthy starters, Hurts is in a position to thrive in the Eagles offense. It is also worth noting that Hurts rushed for 1,298 yards his senior year at Oklahoma. OddsShopper‘s shows SugarHouse offers the best odds on Hurts’ rushing total.
Latavius Murray Under 550.5 Yards Rushing (-110, William Hill)
New Orleans’ backfield tandem of Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray are joined by rookie Tony Jones Jr. and veteran Devonta Freeman. Head coach Sean Payton and general manager Mickey Loomis also added offensive line depth with center Christian Montano and re-signed left tackle James Hurst.
The Awesemo Player Props Tool forecasts regression for Murray in 2021, projecting him for 268 yards rushing, just over 40% of his previous season rushing total of 656 yards, projecting 95% odds on the under for 550.5 yards, with a 79% return on investment. In his two seasons in New Orleans Murray has rushed for 146 attempts each year. Yet this was prior to Freeman and Jones joining the backfield, and there are looming questions about Murray’s workload. Taysom Hill being a gadget ball carrier does not help Murray’s chances either, as Hill also saw 87 carries in 2020. SugarHouse only has most yards and most rushing touchdowns props for Murray, while William Hill is the lone sportsbook offering total yards rushing.
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