NFL Player Props: Betting Odds based on Awesemo NFL DFS Projections

Betting NFL player props are perhaps the most beatable odds that sportsbooks offer today. Most of these sportsbooks outsource their odds and there are so many that they can’t get them all right. The way that sportsbooks tend to handle these bets is by limiting sharp bettors to small bets only while allowing lesser skilled players to put huge bets down on losing bets. That means you should take advantage of these bets while you can.

The expected probabilities are based on Awesemo’s projections and simulations. These are not necessarily designed to optimally calculate the percentages of each bet – but they should give a great baseline for what bets should be profitable and which should be avoided.

Awesemo’s NFL Betting Season Long Player Props Tool

Passing TD

Name	Touchdowns	Projection	Under Odds	Over Odds	Under ROI	Over ROI
Name	Touchdowns	Projection	Under Odds	Over Odds	Under ROI	Over ROI
Aaron Rodgers	35.5	34.4	53	46	0	-13
Baker Mayfield	29.5	27.6	58	41	9	-22
Ben Roethlisberger	27.5	27.1	51	48	-3	-9
Carson Wentz	24.5	25.3	45	54	-15	2
Dak Prescott	32.5	32.5	49	50	-7	-5
Daniel Jones	24.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Derek Carr	25.5	30.7	29	70	-45	32
Jalen Hurts	20.5	19.4	57	42	6	-19
Jameis Winston	24.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jared Goff	20.5	22.6	37	62	-29	16
Joe Burrow	26.5	24.4	60	39	12	-25
Josh Allen	34.5	32.2	58	41	9	-23
Justin Herbert	28.5	31.6	37	62	-30	17
Kirk Cousins	28.5	27.7	53	46	0	-12
Kyler Murray	25.5	31.6	26	73	-50	37
Lamar Jackson	25.5	25.7	48	51	-9	-3
Mac Jones	23.5	26.8	34	65	-36	23
Matt Ryan	29.5	30.8	44	55	-17	4
Matthew Stafford	28.5	31.3	38	61	-28	15
Patrick Mahomes	39.5	38.2	53	46	0	-13
Russell Wilson	33.5	30.8	60	39	13	-26
Ryan Fitzpatrick	23.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ryan Tannehill	28.5	28.6	48	51	-8	-4
Sam Darnold	23.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Tom Brady	36.5	36.8	48	51	-9	-3
Trevor Lawrence	25.5	24.6	54	45	1	-14

Passing Yards

Name	Yards	Projection	Under Odds	Over Odds	Under ROI	Over ROI
Name	Yards	Projection	Under Odds	Over Odds	Under ROI	Over ROI
Aaron Rodgers	4,550	4,310	56	43	5	-18
Baker Mayfield	3,950	4,027	47	52	-12	0
Ben Roethlisberger	3,900	3,881	50	49	-6	-6
Carson Wentz	3,850	3,870	48	51	-8	-4
Dak Prescott	4,745	4,783	48	51	-9	-3
Daniel Jones	3,800	0	0	0	0	0
Derek Carr	4,050	4,650	33	66	-37	24
Jalen Hurts	3,650	3,526	54	45	1	-14
Jameis Winston	4,200	0	0	0	0	0
Jared Goff	3,995	3,851	54	45	1	-14
Joe Burrow	4,200	4,233	48	51	-9	-3
Josh Allen	4,550	4,421	53	46	0	-12
Justin Herbert	4,450	4,760	41	58	-23	9
Kirk Cousins	4,200	4,199	49	50	-7	-5
Kyler Murray	4,150	4,813	32	67	-39	26
Lamar Jackson	3,450	3,442	49	50	-6	-6
Mac Jones	3,800	3,817	48	51	-8	-4
Matt Ryan	4,450	3,961	65	34	21	-34
Matthew Stafford	4,595	4,930	40	59	-23	10
Patrick Mahomes	5,050	4,909	53	46	0	-12
Russell Wilson	4,250	4,376	45	54	-14	1
Ryan Fitzpatrick	3,900	0	0	0	0	0
Ryan Tannehill	4,200	3,773	63	36	19	-32
Sam Darnold	3,950	0	0	0	0	0
Teddy Bridgewater	3,175	3,912	27	72	-49	36
Tom Brady	4,750	4,811	47	52	-10	-2

Rushing TD

Name	Touchdowns	Projection	OddsUnder	OddsOver	Under ROI	Over ROI
Name	Touchdowns	Projection	OddsUnder	OddsOver	Under ROI	Over ROI
Aaron Jones	8.9	6.7	76	23	42	-55
Alvin Kamara	10.0	0.0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Antonio Gibson	9.3	8.8	55	44	3	-16
Austin Ekeler	5.4	6.6	36	63	-32	19
Chris Carson	7.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Christian McCaffrey	11.5	0.0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	7.4	7.2	53	46	0	-12
D'Andre Swift	8.2	6.2	76	23	42	-55
Dalvin Cook	13.3	11.7	62	37	16	-29
David Montgomery	7.4	7.5	49	50	-7	-5
Derrick Henry	13.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Ezekiel Elliott	9.6	8.3	63	36	18	-31
Gus Edwards	8.3	0.0	0	0	0	0
Jalen Hurts	7.3	7.9	45	54	-15	2
James Robinson	5.9	7.0	38	61	-28	15
Joe Mixon	7.4	10.2	29	70	-45	32
Jonathan Taylor	10.2	13.5	31	68	-41	28
Josh Allen	8.0	6.9	61	38	15	-28
Josh Jacobs	8.4	7.8	57	42	8	-21
Kyler Murray	7.4	3.9	94	5	77	-90
Lamar Jackson	7.2	12.1	23	76	-55	42
Mike Davis	7.2	2.8	99	0	86	-99
Miles Sanders	6.7	6.0	60	39	12	-26
Najee Harris	7.7	9.3	36	63	-31	18
Nick Chubb	11.5	9.2	70	29	32	-45
Ronald Jones II	6.8	3.9	93	6	74	-87
Saquon Barkley	9.0	7.1	71	28	34	-47
Trevor Lawrence	3.3	3.4	49	50	-8	-4

Rushing Yards

Name	Yards	Projection	OddsUnder	OddsOver	Under ROI	Over ROI
Name	Yards	Projection	OddsUnder	OddsOver	Under ROI	Over ROI
AJ Dillon	690	771	44	55	-16	3
Aaron Jones	1,050	632	86	13	62	-75
Alvin Kamara	945	796	63	36	19	-32
Antonio Gibson	1,025	1,120	46	53	-13	0
Austin Ekeler	825	795	54	45	1	-14
Chase Edmonds	650	464	75	24	41	-54
Chris Carson	1,000	0	0	0	0	0
Christian McCaffrey	1,200	0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	900	783	61	38	14	-27
D'Andre Swift	900	785	61	38	14	-27
Dalvin Cook	1,375	1,379	51	48	-3	-9
Damien Harris	845	870	49	50	-6	-6
Daniel Jones	400	0	0	0	0	0
David Montgomery	1,000	1,116	44	55	-16	3
Derrick Henry	1,555	0	0	0	0	0
Devin Singletary	525	617	41	58	-21	8
Ezekiel Elliott	1,100	883	67	32	25	-38
Gus Edwards	1,000	0	0	0	0	0
Jalen Hurts	655	1,033	25	74	-51	38
Jamaal Williams	525	596	43	56	-18	4
James Conner	595	929	29	70	-45	32
Javonte Williams	800	784	53	46	0	-12
Joe Mixon	995	1,093	45	54	-14	1
Jonathan Taylor	1,175	1,594	34	65	-35	22
Josh Allen	480	687	29	70	-44	31
Josh Jacobs	975	913	56	43	5	-18
Kareem Hunt	650	864	35	64	-33	20
Kenyan Drake	540	0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Kyler Murray	680	419	87	12	62	-75
Lamar Jackson	945	1,106	40	59	-24	11
Leonard Fournette	650	944	31	68	-40	27
Michael Carter	575	717	38	61	-27	14
Mike Davis	800	335	98	1	84	-97
Miles Sanders	1,000	839	64	35	19	-32
Myles Gaskin	750	576	70	29	31	-44
Najee Harris	990	969	53	46	0	-12
Nick Chubb	1,350	1,183	60	39	13	-26
Raheem Mostert	700	0	0	0	0	0
Ronald Jones II	770	371	96	3	79	-92
Saquon Barkley	1,185	909	70	29	31	-44
Trevor Lawrence	325	372	41	58	-22	9

Receiving Yards

Name	Yards	Projection	OddsUnder	OddsOver	Under ROI	Over ROI
Name	Yards	Projection	OddsUnder	OddsOver	Under ROI	Over ROI
A.J. Brown	1,175	0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
A.J. Green	545	709	35	64	-33	20
Adam Thielen	990	875	60	39	12	-25
Allen Robinson II	1,090	718	81	18	53	-66
Amari Cooper	1,175	1,029	60	39	13	-26
Antonio Brown	700	0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Austin Hooper	500	621	37	62	-30	17
Blake Jarwin	525	0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Brandin Cooks	895	993	44	55	-17	4
Brandon Aiyuk	875	673	70	29	32	-45
Calvin Ridley	1,350	0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Ceedee lamb	1,050	1,166	44	55	-17	4
Chase Claypool	895	662	73	26	37	-50
Chris Godwin	1,080	1,236	42	57	-20	7
Cole Beasley	795	863	45	54	-14	1
Cole Kmet	495	520	47	52	-11	-1
Cooper Kupp	1,005	1,706	24	75	-53	40
Corey Davis	805	0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Courtland Sutton	950	736	70	29	31	-44
Curtis Samuel	700	176	99	0	86	-99
D'Andre Swift	375	506	34	65	-34	21
Dallas Goedert	675	791	40	59	-24	11
Darnell Mooney	705	802	42	57	-19	6
Darren Waller	1,050	891	63	36	18	-31
Davante Adams	1,300	1,503	41	58	-22	9
DeAndre Hopkins	1,350	984	74	25	39	-52
Deebo Samuel	895	1,061	40	59	-24	11
Denzel Mims	550	214	99	0	86	-99
Devante Parker	810	845	48	51	-9	-3
Devonta Smith	775	842	45	54	-14	1
Diontae Johnson	975	1,090	43	56	-17	4
DJ Chark JR.	905	0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
D.J. Moore	1,190	0	0	0	0	0
Dk Metcalf	1,255	1,024	66	33	23	-36
Elijah Moore	705	0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Emmanuel Sanders	600	854	31	68	-41	28
Eric Ebron	500	0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Evan Engram	600	530	60	39	12	-25
Gabriel Davis	650	378	89	10	67	-80
George Kittle	1,025	1,078	47	52	-11	-1
Gerald Everett	505	486	53	46	0	-13
Henry Ruggs III	725	0	0	0	0	0
Hunter Henry	560	460	65	34	22	-36
Ja'Marr Chase	975	1,120	42	57	-20	7
Jalen Reagor	675	425	84	15	58	-71
Jared Cook	525	535	49	50	-7	-5
Jarvis Landry	900	1,107	38	61	-28	15
Jaylen Waddle	750	944	37	62	-30	17
Jerry Jeudy	920	838	57	42	8	-21
John Brown	550	0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Juju Smith-Schuster	790	0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Julio Jones	995	914	57	42	7	-20
Justin Jefferson	1,325	1,382	48	51	-9	-3
Keenan Allen	1,025	1,150	43	56	-18	5
Kenny Golladay	1,000	672	80	19	50	-63
Kyle Pitts	800	769	53	46	0	-13
Logan Thomas	600	0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Mark Andrews	775	822	46	53	-12	0
Marquise Brown	800	870	45	54	-14	1
Marvin Jones	825	0	0	0	0	0
Mecole Hardman	725	500	78	21	47	-60
Michael Gallup	875	898	49	50	-7	-5
Michael Pittman Jr.	800	1,032	35	64	-32	19
Mike Evans	1,050	1,001	54	45	2	-15
Mike Gesicki	685	727	46	53	-12	0
Mike Williams	900	1,059	40	59	-23	10
Nelson Agholor	700	593	63	36	18	-31
Noah Fant	690	570	65	34	22	-35
Odell Beckham Jr.	925	890	53	46	0	-13
Rashod Bateman	605	496	65	34	23	-36
Rob Gronkowski	495	919	21	78	-60	47
Robby Anderson	955	686	75	24	41	-54
Robert Woods	995	0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Rondale Moore	545	591	45	54	-14	1
Russell Gage	700	862	38	61	-28	15
Stefon Diggs	1,350	1,217	58	41	9	-22
T.J. Hockenson	770	742	53	46	0	-13
Tee Higgins	1,050	1,045	51	48	-3	-9
Terrace Marshall Jr.	550	213	99	0	86	-99
Terry McLaurin	1,180	894	71	28	34	-47
Travis Kelce	1,300	1,099	63	36	18	-31
Tyler Boyd	825	725	60	39	13	-26
Tyler Higbee	650	682	47	52	-11	-2
Tyler Lockett	1,000	1,099	44	55	-15	2
Tyreek Hill	1,350	1,398	48	51	-8	-4
Will Fuller	875	0	0	0	0	0

Receiving TD

Name	Touchdowns	Projection	OddsUnder	OddsOver	Under ROI	Over ROI
Name	Touchdowns	Projection	OddsUnder	OddsOver	Under ROI	Over ROI
A.J. Brown	8.5	0.0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Adam Thielen	8.8	6.8	69	30	29	-42
A.J. Green	3.5	4.8	32	67	-38	25
Allen Robinson II	6.8	4.6	80	19	50	-63
Amari Cooper	7.3	7.2	51	48	-2	-10
Antonio Brown	5.7	0.0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Austin Hooper	4.3	4.2	53	46	0	-12
Blake Jarwin	4.2	0.0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Brandin Cooks	4.6	5.8	36	63	-30	17
Brandon Aiyuk	5.7	4.6	66	33	23	-37
Calvin Ridley	9.9	0.0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Ceedee Lamb	6.5	8.2	37	62	-30	17
Chase Claypool	6.7	4.6	78	21	47	-60
Chris Godwin	7.6	9.4	38	61	-28	15
Cole Beasley	4.4	6.3	31	68	-41	28
Cooper Kupp	6.1	11.1	22	77	-57	44
Corey Davis	4.5	0.0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Courtland Sutton	5.7	4.9	62	37	17	-30
Curtis Samuel	4.2	1.3	99	0	86	-99
D.J. Moore	5.8	0.0	0	0	0	0
Dallas Goedert	4.8	4.3	59	40	10	-23
Darnell Mooney	4.2	5.1	38	61	-27	14
Darren Waller	7.6	5.9	70	29	32	-45
Davante Adams	10.8	12.4	41	58	-22	9
DeAndre Hopkins	7.8	6.7	62	37	16	-29
Deebo Samuel	4.8	7.3	28	71	-46	33
Desean Jackson	3.5	3.2	58	41	8	-21
Devante Parker	4.8	6.5	33	66	-37	24
Devonta Smith	5.1	4.8	55	44	3	-16
Diontae Johnson	6.3	7.6	39	60	-26	13
DJ CHark Jr.	5.6	0.0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
DK Metcalf	9.1	7.5	65	34	21	-34
Emmanuel Sanders	4.5	6.2	32	67	-39	26
Eric Ebron	4.1	0.0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Evan Engram	3.8	3.2	63	36	19	-32
Gabriel Davis	5.1	2.8	92	7	73	-86
George Kittle	5.5	7.0	35	64	-33	20
Gerald Everett	4.0	3.4	62	37	16	-29
Henry Ruggs III	4.0	0.0	0	0	0	0
Hunter Henry	4.5	3.3	75	24	41	-54
Ja'Marr Chase	6.2	6.6	46	53	-12	0
Jalen Reagor	4.0	2.4	87	12	62	-75
Jamison Crowder	4.0	4.9	38	61	-27	14
Jared Cook	4.7	3.6	71	28	34	-47
Jarvis Landry	4.7	7.9	25	74	-53	40
Jaylen Waddle	4.8	7.3	28	71	-46	33
Jerry Jeudy	4.9	5.5	43	56	-19	6
John Brown	3.3	0.0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Juju Smith-Schuster	6.1	0.0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Julio Jones	6.4	6.1	54	45	1	-14
Justin Jefferson	8.3	9.0	45	54	-14	1
Keenan Allen	6.3	8.0	36	63	-31	18
Kendrick Bourne	2.5	5.0	20	79	-62	49
Kenny Golladay	5.7	4.2	73	26	37	-50
Kyle Pitts	7.1	6.0	63	36	17	-30
Laviska Shenault Jr.	3.8	4.8	37	62	-30	16
Logan Thomas	4.5	0.0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Mark Andrews	7.1	6.1	62	37	17	-30
Marquise Brown	6.2	6.8	45	54	-15	2
Marvin Jones	5.7	0.0	0	0	0	0
Mecole Hardman	4.8	3.6	71	28	33	-46
Michael Gallup	5.0	6.3	37	62	-30	17
Michael Pittman Jr.	4.4	7.1	26	73	-50	37
Mike Evans	9.1	9.1	51	48	-4	-8
Mike Gesicki	5.0	5.3	47	52	-10	-2
Mike Williams	5.3	7.3	32	67	-39	26
Nelson Agholor	4.0	4.6	42	57	-20	7
Noah Fant	4.1	3.6	61	38	14	-27
Odell Beckham Jr.	5.8	5.8	51	48	-3	-9
Rob Gronkowski	4.8	6.9	29	70	-44	31
Robby Anderson	4.9	4.5	57	42	7	-20
Robert Tonyan	6.1	0.0	0	0	0	0
Robert Woods	6.5	0.0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Russell Gage	4.6	7.2	26	73	-50	36
Sammy Watkins	3.5	2.0	90	9	68	-81
Stefon Diggs	8.3	8.9	46	53	-12	0
T.J. Hockenson	5.1	4.4	61	38	15	-28
Tee Higgins	5.8	6.2	46	53	-12	0
Terry McLaurin	6.2	6.3	49	50	-7	-5
Travis Kelce	9.8	8.4	62	37	16	-29
Tyler Boyd	4.6	4.3	55	44	4	-17
Tyler Higbee	5.3	4.3	66	33	25	-38
tyler Lockett	7.6	8.1	46	53	-12	0
Tyreek Hill	10.3	10.2	51	48	-2	-10
Tyrell Williams	3.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
Will Fuller	5.1	0.0	0	0	0	0

Receptions

Name	Receptions	Projection	OddsUnder	OddsOver	Under ROI	Over ROI
Name	Receptions	Projection	OddsUnder	OddsOver	Under ROI	Over ROI
A.J. Brown	81.5	0.0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Allen Robinson II	92.5	59.0	84	15	57	-70
Amari Cooper	88.5	79.5	58	41	10	-23
Brandon Aiyuk	67.5	52.2	70	29	31	-44
Calvin Ridley	98.5	0.0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
CeeDee Lamb	80.5	88.6	44	55	-16	3
Chase Edmonds	46.5	28.0	86	13	62	-75
Chris Godwin	83.5	97.8	41	58	-23	10
Cole Kmet	44.5	54.1	38	61	-28	15
Cooper Kupp	93.5	131.2	31	68	-40	27
D'Andre Swift	52.5	67.9	36	63	-31	17
Dallas Goedert	60.5	68.1	43	56	-19	6
Darren Waller	95.5	78.8	65	34	22	-35
DeAndre Hopkins	108.5	78.3	75	24	41	-54
Diontae Johnson	83.5	92.8	44	55	-17	4
DJ Chark Jr.	65.5	0.0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
D.J. Moore	80.5	0.0	0	0	0	0
DK Metcalf	84.5	71.3	63	36	19	-32
Evan Engram	54.5	52.6	53	46	0	-13
George Kittle	82.5	88.6	46	53	-13	0
Ja'Marr Chase	72.5	73.5	50	49	-6	-6
Jerry Jeudy	65.5	67.1	49	50	-7	-5
Juju Smith-Schuster	80.5	0.0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Julio Jones	77.5	64.6	64	35	20	-33
Justin Jefferson	90.5	92.8	49	50	-7	-5
Keenan Allen	98.5	103.8	47	52	-10	-2
Kenny Golladay	69.5	44.9	83	16	55	-68
Laviska Shenault Jr.	60.5	67.4	44	55	-17	4
Logan Thomas	65.5	0.0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Mark Andrews	65.5	70.0	46	53	-13	0
Marquise Brown	60.5	67.8	43	56	-18	5
Najee Harris	44.5	56.9	37	62	-30	16
Odell Beckham Jr.	69.5	66.1	54	45	2	-15
Robert Woods	92.5	0.0	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252	-2,146,826,252
Stefon Diggs	106.5	94.3	59	40	12	-25
T.J. Hockenson	77.5	72.7	55	44	3	-16
Terry McLaurin	86.5	67.5	69	30	30	-43
Travis Kelce	100.5	90.7	58	41	9	-22
Tyler Boyd	78.5	63.2	67	32	25	-38
Tyler Lockett	86.5	84.1	53	46	0	-12
Tyreek HILl	89.5	106.7	40	59	-25	11

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