With just three weeks left in the regular season, the NFL futures board is starting to become slightly more limited. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t good value on the board. We’re identifying some of the NFL best bets to target, including the MVP, division races and Super Bowl odds. The Awesemo OddsShopper tool helps us identify the best books to place NFL betting picks throughout the season, so make sure you continue to check there for the best place to make your bet before you lock it in.
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NFL Best Bets: MVP, Division & Super Bowl Betting Picks
Player Futures
MVP
At one point this season, DraftKings was offering Russell Wilson to win MVP at +125, and a field at -155. That ship has since sailed, but hopefully you got the value while you could. Wilson is now +6600 to win the award on DraftKings, in case you were wondering.
However, the MVP race isn’t completely over. Patrick Mahomes was juiced all the way up to -500 entering Week 14, and while the Chiefs still got the win in Miami, Mahomes threw three interceptions — he had been picked off just twice on the season entering that game.
That brings Mahomes back to a realistic price of -200 at most books, a very fair price. The Chiefs could easily finish 15-1 and with the 1-seed in the AFC, making it tough to look elsewhere for the MVP. But Aaron Rodgers is coming in hot, overtaking the Saints for the No. 1 seed in the NFC last week — both teams are 10-3, but Green Bay earned the head-to-head win on the road earlier this season.
Let’s say the Chiefs, who are only 3.5-point favorites in New Orleans and haven’t covered a spread in their last five games, actually lose this week. Rodgers has 39 touchdowns to four interceptions. If he throws three a game and finished with a 48-to-4 ratio and a 13-3 record, that could be MVP worthy. Give some consideration to Rodgers at +200.
Team Futures
Division Races
There are still a few divisions up for grabs in the NFL. The AFC South comes down to the Titans (-155) and the Colts (+135). The always entertaining NFC East is still open to anyone but the Cowboys (+5000), but Washington (-250) is currently the favorite. And then the Rams (-180) have the inside track on the Seahawks (+175) in the NFC West.
The Titans host the Lions and travel to Houston in Week 17, but have a trip to Green Bay in between. The Colts also face Houston, then go to Pittsburgh and finish up with the Jaguars. With the Titans currently in the lead but both teams at 9-4, it’s pretty likely both teams will finish 11-5 with Tennessee winning the division. But if you see a second loss in there for the Titans, or think Indianapolis can win out, there’s your reason for plus money with the Colts as an NFL betting pick.
I’m at a loss when it comes to the NFC East. This is probably Washington’s division to lose, but it gets a tough task this week in the Seahawks. The Giants finish up with the Cowboys but face the Browns and Ravens first. They seem destined for 6-10 (at least my Under on 6.5 wins hopes so). The Eagles are the mystery team. They just switched to Jalen Hurts at quarterback and got an extremely positive outcome with a win over the Saints. If the Eagles can win out, which includes what could be a massive game against Washington in Week 17, there’s reason to consider them at +600.
In the West, the Rams and Seahawks are both 9-4, but the Rams have the head-to-head win. Of course, we’ll see these teams play again. The Rams play in Seattle in Week 16, which very well could determine the division. But the Seahawks have the tougher schedule and likely have to win out for the division. The Rams get a layup this week with the Jets and finish up with another home game against the Cardinals, which could be very important fort Arizona’s postseason chances. Seattle has some tougher road contests against Washington and San Francisco. I do like the value on Seattle, but the Rams have the easier schedule. It’s nice that Wilson controls his own destiny, though. All he has to do is win all three games and the division is his.
Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl (+220, BetMGM)
A path is really starting to form where I’m planning to place a bet on Kansas City to win it all. DraftKings opened odds on who the No. 1 seed in each conference will be. For the AFC, Pittsburgh opened -200 and Kansas City +140, as of two weeks ago. Two Steelers losses later and the Chiefs are -3335. Kansas City thrived on the bye last season and are now dipping below even odds to win the AFC. The NFC teams come with far more flaws, as any of the Saints, Packers, Rams, Seahawks or Buccaneers could get there, but all have more holes than the Chiefs. I’m going to back Mahomes now before the price gets so out of hand. Other books are already down to as low as +150 on this Super Bowl pick.
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