NFL Betting Picks: Monday Night Football OddsShopper Best Bets | Steelers vs. Bengals

With plenty of playoff picture framing accomplished this past Sunday, we move onto Monday Night Football’s second-to-last offering of 2020. The Steelers have all but stamped their name on the AFC North division title, but a matchup with the beleaguered Bengals is still a good place to make our NFL betting picks for Monday Night Football.

While Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has an army of talented receivers to choose from, he’s also the far more experienced quarterback tonight. Ryan Finley gets the start for the Bengals, and he has his own arsenal of talented young receivers to contend as spoilers on the Monday Night stage. A win for Cincinnati would throw a wrench in the Steelers plans to sew the division title up in Week 15. With that in mind, we will take our attention over to OddsShopper to discover best bets for Monday Night Football and find out tonight when we chase the action.

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NFL Betting Picks: Week 15 Monday Night Football

NFL Prop Bet: TE Drew Sample, OVER 2.5 Receptions (+140, BetMGM & William Hill Sportsbook)

This was originally going to be a Tee Higgins receptions prop, but it’s really hard to trust what Finley has shown us at quarterback in his handful of games played in the NFL. Monday Night Football in Week 15 will be his first start this season, and it is coming against one of the league’s top defenses that is also playing with a two-loss chip on their shoulders. The Higgins prop of over/under 3.5 receptions listed at +120 remains inviting, but with an untrusted passer throwing to him, it seems like it should either be one fewer reception or increased expected value. That brings us to Bengals second-year tight end Drew Sample and his reception prop to snag three catches (or more) at +140.

With No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow sidelined until next season, backup Brandon Allen took the reins as Cincinnati’s starter until suffering a bone bruise in last week’s loss. In the past three weeks with Allen at the helm, Sample has been the third-most targeted member of the Bengals offense with an 18.3% target share, behind Higgins and Tyler Boyd. In that brief time frame, Sample has averaged 5.3 targets per game and an 87.5% catch rate, hauling in 14 of 16 passes since Week 12 when Allen got his first start.

Looking back at the entire season, the numbers weren’t quite as stellar for Sample when Burrow was under center. With a 10% drop rate over the course of 2020, Sample hasn’t been the most dependable target for the Bengals, yet he has leapfrogged A.J. Green as the Bengals’ No. 3 receiver since Burrow suffered his season-ending injury. One would assume that the Bengals are going to play to keep Finley in manageable situations, including safer short-yardage plays to Sample. With a prop line of just three catches, and at some fairly significant plus money to boot, the over on 2.5 catches for Sample is much too attractive given the scenario.

NFL Prop Bet: WR James Washington, OVER 2.5 Receptions (+140, SugarHouse & DraftKings Sportsbook)

With JuJu Smith-Schuster, Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnsom and Eric Ebron, the Steelers have a lot of mouths to feed in Pittsburgh. Yet somehow wide receiver James Washington has managed to squeeze into the fold and remain in the equation, coming through for Roethlisberger and the Steelers when they’ve called his number. Considering the number of options on Pittsburgh’s offense, the player prop selection can be a bit daunting. When looking at where the targets have been for the top passing quarterback in the NFL, Washington’s sporadic involvement has netted 3.7 targets per game this season, with increasing numbers as of late. Getting a reception line of 2.5 at +140 makes for some excellent value on Washington.

Johnson has had a bad case of the drops recently, so much so that his snap count took a major hit in Week 14 after dropping three of his seven targets. This propelled Washington to a whopping 80.7% snap count, thus providing him more opportunities to garner targets last week. Washington hauled in three catches on six targets (one for a touchdown), proving Roethlisberger isn’t afraid to go elsewhere when any of his receivers are having off days. The drop rate of 9.7% for Washington this season (and more so the 50% last week) is a bit concerning for his reception total since he’s going to have to take advantage of every target possible to net three catches. He also has a snap count average of just 43.1%, aside from Week 14’s outlier.

On the season, Washington has had two outings with as many as seven targets and exactly three targets in each of the two weeks prior to Week 14’s six. Against a mediocre Bengals secondary that ranks 14th in catch rate allowed, the opportunity may present itself earlier than anticipated. On top of that, the Steelers running game is struggling to get going before the playoffs. If the reliance on Roethlisberger’s arm once again becomes the Steelers’ plan of attack, Washington has an achievable reception prop at considerable +EV.

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