We stay in Florida this week with the Arnold Palmer Invitational set to kick off from Bay Hill. This follows up the Honda Classic which produced some of the toughest conditions the players will see the entire season, and more danger will be lurking at this course. We will see the winning score return to a more familiar range after -6 won last week, and we have a lot of top end players to consider in the betting market. Let’s dig into some golf betting options for the week ahead.
Podcast fan? Did you know all our daily YouTube shows are on our podcast channel? Click this link to check out our Awesemo podcast stations and get entered into our podcast giveaway, simply: Like, Rate, Review & Subscribe and you’ll be entered to win a FREE monthly Awesemo+ platinum pass! If you’re not on iTunes and can’t leave a comment, just hit us up on Twitter with a screenshot of your rating and we’ll get you entered in!
For additional info about the course and some guys to consider in your lineups make sure to read PGA DFS Arnold Palmer Above the Cut  article which can help you build teams, but let’s take a look at what we have on the betting side of things.
Futures / Outrights Winners
Rickie Fowler 33-1
Fowler missed the cut on the number at Honda, and its been a low key slow start to 2020 for Rickie. I’m not overly concerned though as he just hasn’t played a ton choosing to skip the WGC Mexico and the Genesis during the west coast swing. Fowler needs to just avoid the blowup holes/ rounds as it seems like each week he’s had a stretch taking him out of contention.
Rickie should excel on these Bermuda greens and once his around the green game gets back to normal it should be all systems go. He, like most players, has a ton of experience at Bay Hill so he should know what he needs to do in order to get in the mix. Fowler has the upside each and every week and although right now he has some glaring red flags I still don’t mind the outright number we are getting. There are a few guys in this field who started slow in 2020 and I have interest in buying low on several of them in the betting market.
Justin Rose 40-1
This is a situation where the price was too good to pass up even if its not a guy that I was looking to get exposure to in the betting market. Justin Rose has been a disappointment so far in 2020 and missed another cut last week at Honda. Equally concerning is that he lost both OTT and with the approach in his third consecutive tournament that we have SG data for on the PGA tour and that is a major red flag.
After seeing where Rose is form wise its hard to imagine having interest in the outright betting market, but the price tells another story. He sits at 40-1 and this is a veteran who can turn it around at anytime and beat any field he is entered in. Looking over his API history we see a runner up finish as well as a 3rd so the course should fit his game IF he can round back into form. The downside with Rose this week is immense, but in an outright market I don’t mind taking a shot at this price knowing the caliber of golf we are getting long term.
Check us out on TWITTER, where we talk sports, share articles and have lots of giveaways. Just click HERE
Top-20 Golf Betting Picks
Harry Higgs Top 20 +425
One of the more impressive Korn Ferry graduates has been Higgs who has a runner up in Bermuda and a stretch of eight made cuts in his last nine starts. He relies on his OTT game to carry him and is a guy with some high variance to his scorecards. Coming off a 58th finish at the Honda isn’t going to turn many heads, but looking at that stats we see an encouraging situation. Higgs actually gained 3.1 strokes with his irons which should have set him up for a much better finish around PGA National. Unfortunately he couldn’t figure out the Bermuda greens and lost 5.6 strokes putting which is going to limit any players results in fields like this.
If Higgs continues to strike the ball like he has recently then there is no reason he can’t rack up another quality result in his 2020 season. The putter has to come around, but I’m not going to overreact to a single tourney and think we see positive regression in that area. At 200-1 in the outright market its nothing more than a lotto ticket, but the Top 20 price of +425 is one I plan to attack.
Matchup
Kevin Kisner -125 vs Max Homa
Another easy H2H last week as we backed Daniel Berger over Viktor Hovland who really struggled and missed the cut. That is what we are always looking for with these bets and hitting H2Hs really can help give you additional runway to make some outright and future type bets. This week I look to Kisner as a slight favorite over Homa here at the API.
Kisner’s last appearance was 18th at WGC Mexico and has had a decent start to the 2020 campaign. He has played the API plenty of times so the course shouldn’t present anything he hasn’t seen before and he can lean on the irons and putter to do the heavy lifting. I expect a solid showing in this spot and if the putter heats up watch out as he can get dangerously hot.
On the other side we have Max Homa who has been fantastic so far in 2020 out on the west coast. He comes in with four straight Top 15 finishes including three top 10’s over this latest stretch. Its been solid across the board as Homa gained tee to green as well as with the putter in all of these events. However he now goes to Florida where he shouldn’t be nearly as comfortable and has no experience at this event in the past. He did not play at the Honda last week and I do think the change of venue could bring up some question marks on a California guy like Homa. I will back Kisner who I trust more to return a quality finish in this field and think this may be a spot to jump off Homa if you have been riding this hot streak.
Quick Notes
If you are unfamiliar with betting on PGA or just looking to dive into it for the first time make sure to try and understand each type of bet and how to properly allocate bankroll for each. When choosing a few outrights at long odds we are hoping to hit one of those a year as it would pay for the entire season and then some. Think of that as the large field GPPs where you really hope to tread water and then rely on a big hit once every year or so to do major damage.
On the other side we have H2H bets which naturally are more like cash games or H2Hs in DFS where you aren’t going to win a huge multiplier of your money, but also should be hitting them at a reasonable clip. Just getting a clearer picture of what each bet is like is important as this is a long season with a lot of opportunities to take some stabs in the betting markets.
Good luck everyone!
Looking for more PGA Betting & DFS content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo PGA home page, just click HERE
