The UFC is back in Vegas for UFC 276. The 12-fight card features two title fights, including the third meeting between Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski. Following that hotly anticipated rematch, the middleweights take center stage, with Israel Adesanya attempting to add a sixth title defense ruby to his belt when he takes on Jared Cannonier. There’s plenty of action up and down the card, including some fights where one fighter has a clear path to victory — that’s the perfect opportunity to explore the best prop bets on the market. Rather than just predicting the winner, MMA prop bets allow bettors to bet on the length of the fight, method of victory, and much more. This gives bettors multiple ways to bet when making their UFC 276 prop picks and predictions tonight.
UFC 276 Predictions & Prop Pick Bets
Jim Miller vs. Donald Cerrone Prediction | Claim Your $200 FREE at BetMGM
Jim Miller and Donald Cerrone rank first and third all time in number of UFC appearances, and are set to meet for the second time on the UFC 276 prelims. Cerrone won their first matchup way back in 2014, but lots of things have changed since then. This fight is the perfect example of a bout where one fighter has a narrow — but fairly probable — path to victory.
That fighter is Miller, who has won each of his last two UFC bouts by knockout. Both came early in the second round, but his previous four wins all came in the first. Miller is a notoriously strong starter, who clearly still posses power at this late stage in his career.
Cerrone, on the other hand, is winless in his last six, including three first-round knockout defeats. “Cowboy” utilized a fan-friendly, brawling style throughout his career, but has absorbed a ton of damage inside (and outside) the octagon. Fighters’ chins tend to fade as they age and take damage, with Cerrone’s seemingly having exited long ago.
Cerrone does have excellent cardio though, and builds as the fight goes on. Miller, on the other hand, tends to fade, with six consecutive losses in fights that go the distance. Both fighters are excellent submission grapplers, but the edge there goes to Cowboy. His last — and only — career submission loss came in 2010, despite fighting a plethora of high-level submission fighters.
If you’re keeping track at home, the heavily favored Miller (-190) likely wins this one early, and by knockout. I like both his Round 1 prop, and his odds-=to-win-by-knockout prop bet. The latter currently has longer odds, but if anything changes by fight time, take whichever one has the best price.
Best UFC 276 Prop Pick: Jim Miller by (T)KO +310 (FanDuel)
Jason Floyd and Pete “The Heat” Rogers break down the UFC 276 card and give their favorite UFC 276 betting picks and predictions.
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Gabe Green vs. Ian Garry Prediction | Claim Your $200 FREE at BetMGM
Ian “The Future” Garry is a perfect 2-0 in his UFC career, with one win by decision and one first-round knockout. However, both of his opponents in those bouts are winless in the UFC, as Garry was given a relatively soft landing into the octagon. That soft landing ends on Saturday, as he takes on “Gifted” Gabe Green. Green lost his UFC debut, before picking up impressive wins over Phillip Rowe (2-1 in the UFC) and another hot prospect, the previously unbeaten Yohan Lainesse.
While Garry is undefeated, I saw things in both of his previous fights that concerned me. He was tagged numerous times in his debut against Jordan Williams, before rallying to land a perfect cross and put Williams away. Green has a ton more power than Williams though, and Garry is unlikely to survive that many of Green’s shots.
Garry then took a more cautious approach in his sophomore outing, utilizing his length to stay on the outside against Darian Weeks. The 6-foot-3 Garry has only an inch reach advantage on Green though, so keeping his distance will prove more challenging this time around. We’ve also never seen Garry grapple in the UFC, while Green utilized his wrestling well in his win over Rowe.
Green has big power, all of the grappling upside in this fight, and pushes an extremely fast pace. He’s the fighter more likely to get a stoppage victory here, despite being the underdog. We could play his knockout prop — which is as high as +600 — but the path to least resistance is taking Garry to the ground. He could finish it via ground-0and-pound there, or lock up a choke in a “club-and-sub” situation. That makes his inside the distance line my preferred route here.
Best UFC 276 Prop Pick: Gabe Green inside the distance +400 (BetRivers/Kambi Books)
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