When it comes to NFL betting, there are often few better wagers to gamble on than NFL odds boosts. They are bets that are exactly what they sound like: Promotions from sportsbooks that move the odds in your favor on certain bets. Most of them are the specific prop bets that you might be searching for by yourself, and oftentimes the odds are fairly enticing. Rarely can you make a lot of money on these bets because of limits, but our job is to highlight the best NFL prop bets and NFL picks to wager on every weeks. We scour the internet trying to find the best Week 16 NFL odds boosts for you every day from every sportsbook. It’s a Boxing Day triple-header with playoff implications on the line in every game, which is all you can ask for in Week 16.
The three games on the docket today have one thing in common — intriguing quarterbacks for the favorites. The sportsbooks took full advantage of this lineup of quarterbacks, and we’re going to discuss the two most prominent ones today. Tom Brady leads Tampa Bay into Detroit to face the Lions and there is plenty on the line for the Buccaneers as they battle for playoff seeding. Brady will be without a key weapon on offense for a second straight week, opening the door for yet another monster passing game from the future Hall-of-Famer. Meanwhile in Arizona, Kyler Murray is hoping to keep the Cardinals in the playoffs in a critical divisional showdown with San Francisco. We have seen a healthier Murray the past two weeks, giving us more confidence in using him in odds boosts for the final two weeks of the regular season.
Now, let’s get into the full breakdown of the Week 16 NFL odds, picks and prop bets I like most for this Saturday NFL slate.
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Week 16 Saturday NFL Odds, Picks & Prop Bets | 12/26
NFL Picks: Tom Brady 300+ Passing Yards & 3+ Touchdowns (+460 FanDuel)
The biggest advantage Brady has for this bet this week is the lack of a running game without Ronald Jones. The Buccaneers were already a pass-heavy team to begin with, but a second straight week without Jones means Brady will be throwing the ball a whole lot more against this Lions secondary. Detroit ranks 27th against the pass and has allowed the fifth-most touchdowns of any team in the league, and they are breaking in a new defensive play caller due to COVID-19 issues among the staff. It’s the perfect recipe for Brady to have another monster game as the Buccaneers try to secure better playoff positioning now that the Saints have won the division after their Week 16 win over the Vikings.
Brady has alternated 300-yard passing games the last five weeks, and this would be a week where he isn’t expected to hit that target. But we saw in the second half against Atlanta last week what Brady can do when he’s in control of the offense, and I expect much the same for 60 minutes against the Lions. Leonard Fournette is still a potential touchdown stealer, but Brady has thrown for multiple touchdowns in five straight weeks, including two with three touchdown passes. He’s due to have yet another big day throwing scores against the Lions, especially given how much I expect the Buccaneers will throw the ball and take their shots deep in Bruce Arians’ offense.
NFL Picks: Kyler Murray Rushing Touchdown & Cardinals Win (+200 FanDuel)
Murray scored his first rushing score in five games last week against Philadelphia, and we’ve seen the past two weeks what a healthy Murray can do. Though it didn’t make sense that a shoulder injury would limit Murray on his feet, he was far less aggressive in running the football while protecting his injured shoulder. His rushing attempts dropped and he set season-lows with five attempts for three straight weeks. Against the Giants, though, he ran 13 times and he took off eight times last week against the Eagles, giving us more hope that he will resume his rushing prowess. Murray ran for a score in eight of the first nine weeks before the injury, and last week’s score might jumpstart a new streak to close the season.
In the opening week of the season, Murray ran for 91 yards on 13 attempts to lead the Cardinals to a then-upset win over San Francisco. That was against the fully healthy 49ers defense, too, so I can only imagine what he’ll be able to do against this beat-up unit. The 49ers simply look exhausted at this point, and this will be their fourth game away from the Bay Area since the new COVID-19 restrictions sent them to Arizona. San Francisco isn’t even playing for the playoffs anymore, so what sort of motivation will these players have in such a long and taxing year for the franchise. The past two weeks, the defense has been put in a lot of short-field situations by the offense, and those are where Murray can use his athleticism to excel and make teams pay. This is one of my favorite NFL prop bets of the week.
NFL Picks: Buccaneers, Cardinals & Dolphins Win (+230 DraftKings)
I probably would have preferred better NFL odds on a three-team parlay, especially considering Miami is only a 1.5-point favorite against Las Vegas on DraftKings. However, Tampa Bay and Arizona are big enough favorites that the value is set where it is. We’ll start with Tampa Bay, which has struggled in the first half recently but always found a way to pull through in the second half. The difference is Brady and how well he has played when he feels more in control of the offense and the plays being called. I think Brady will take charge earlier in the game if the offense gets off to another sluggish start. The Buccaneers have a very favorable matchup with Detroit, whose offense could take advantage of Tampa Bay’s weak secondary. I just don’t know if the Lions have the firepower to match Brady and the Buccaneers offense.
The second game of the day is an interesting one with Arizona a moderate favorite over San Francisco. The 49ers defense has played well enough to win the last two weeks, but the offense has been a major letdown. Nick Mullens continually put his defense in short-field situations with turnovers, and it has come back to cost the 49ers. I’m not sure C.J. Beathard will be any better for the 49ers, but he can’t be much worse and he’ll have George Kittle back in the lineup. However, Arizona is playing for a playoff berth and Murray seems to be much healthier than he was when they went on that losing streak. San Francisco will not have an answer for DeAndre Hopkins and Murray’s mobility will shift the pocket and make it much harder for the 49ers to get home and disrupt his timing.
The nightcap in Las Vegas boils down to whether or not the Raiders can get their defense going again to stop anybody. That unit has been atrocious the last five weeks and wasting some excellent efforts from the offense. Derek Carr has been efficient this year with consecutive 300-yard performances before leaving last week’s game with an injury. Josh Jacobs can carry the running game as well, which has been a major boost to the balance. But that defense is in major trouble against a Miami offense that has found a spark recently. Even without some of their better playmakers, the Dolphins have continued to find new ways to move the ball with Tua Tagovailoa under center. The rookie’s passing nearly brought Miami back from a two-score deficit to upset the Chiefs two weeks ago, then last week Miami ran all over New England. And we didn’t take into account a Miami defense that leads the league in scoring defense.
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