After two tournaments in Hawaii, the PGA Tour land in California for The American Express, set to tee off this Thursday. This tournament has had several names in recent years, but it is usually known for the Celebrity Pro-Am pairings, which make for a different tournament vibe. Like most things in this COVID world, that had to be scraped this year, so we get a more traditional format than what we have seen in the past.
Even though this will not have celebrities, this still is going to be a rotational with two courses being utilized for the full field of players. Normally it’s a three-course rotation, but with no celebrities, the tour was able to shrink it down to just the Stadium Course and the Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West. All players will play each course on Thursday or Friday before a 36-hole cut will be made of top 65 and ties for the weekend. For the final 36 holes, the golfers will be playing the Stadium course exclusively.
This article will touch upon both the course and field, as well as dig into what I view as the biggest question facing us on the given slate. Trying to figure out how to attack those looming decisions from a game theory perspective can make a huge difference when playing a high-variance sport like PGA DFS. I also will drop a few plays that will be in my player pool even though this is a much smaller field than we are used to.
The Course
The two-course rotation is always a tricky aspect of DFS . The Stadium Course is where my attention will focus in, as players will see that three times if they are able to find the weekend.
TPC Stadium Course (Three Rounds) – It is a par 72 around 7,100 yards, so it’s very short by tour standards. A lot of trouble lurks with water, which can produce gigantic numbers, but if players avoid water, they will go low with the number of birdies available. Distance isn’t necessary, and any skillset can get the job done so long as they control their shots.
PGA West’s Nicklaus Tournament Course (One Round) – A par 72 around 7,150 yards, this course is easier than Stadium Course. You want your guys to take advantage of their lone round here.
I am going to look for trends that are common to all three courses, such as par 72s with Bermuda greens that are relatively easy courses. I also want to get players who are solid sand players that can rack up birdies. The winning score could be in the 20-under range again this week, so birdies are going to be important, as will par-5 scoring. One thing to note is these par 5’s don’t give up a ton of eagles, and that means wedges and scrambling can be important to take advantage.
The Field
This week has a full field of 156 golfers and some big names in attendance. Before we got started, tournament favorite Jon Rahm withdrew, which takes out the highest-priced player on DraftKings this week. We now get things started with Patrick Cantlay, Brooks Koepka and Tony Finau as the top three price tags. There is talent up and down the field, and with a full field, 6-for-6 is going to be very difficult to get.
In terms of mid-range and lower-priced golfers, it’s a similar batch of players as we saw last week at Sony. Don’t be surprised to see some of them in the mix, just like last week. When there is a lack of top-tier talent, it opens the door for the depth to show, and this is another event where that seems likely.
What Do We Do with Course History with the Altered Event?
The course history debate could have its own article, as it is always a polarizing topic of discussion. Steering clear of the overarching theme, we have an interesting situation because this is normally a three-course rotation. In addition to the extra course, this used to be a Saturday cut where each player had to play all three courses. All of that is out the window, and we lose the celebrities.
One factor that I think isn’t being discussed enough is the setup of the courses now that celebrities aren’t going to be in attendance. Normally the around-the-green and pin locations are very generous since it had to consider amateurs playing. That isn’t the case this year, and I believe we could see a major shift in the difficulty around the greens. That is not to say these courses will suddenly become difficult tracks, but I don’t think it is crazy to bump up the need for quality around-the-green play, taking that into account. Little trends like that can make a big difference, and that is something we could look back on this week and realize was a major difference between this event and the history of this tournament.
PGA DFS Picks: American Express
Top-Priced Fantasy Golf Picks
Patrick Reed: $10.2k DraftKings, $11.5k FanDuel
I just talked about how around the green could get a boost, and that is right in Patrick Reed’s wheelhouse. He was already one of the tournament favorites, and his short game puts him firmly in play in what should be a low-scoring event this week. Going to Reed is always a little odd because his tee-to-green game isn’t as elite as the other world-class players, but that doesn’t mean he cannot be effective.
We saw Reed a few weeks ago at the Tournament of Champions, where he didn’t have much going on before finishing in the middle of the pack. That doesn’t mean much to me, but I do like that he at least got four rounds under his belt to kick off the season. He now comes to an event he won in 2014, and more importantly, he has the skillset to be effective here. Reed hasn’t missed a cut since July and has gained strokes putting in eight of his last 10 events. When you combine that type of short game with an average tee-to-green game, he immediately becomes a factor where I will begin a lot of lineups this week.
Also Considering – Matthew Wolff
Mid-Range Fantasy Golf Picks
Doc Redman: $7.5k DraftKings, $9.1k FanDuel
The mid-range this week is loaded with a ton of guys who are worth some shares in your lineup. With the ability to take apart these par 5’s, you are going to want players who can score outside just finishing position. Doc Redman fits that mold as he can get dangerously hot and has a tee-to-green game that is up there with the top tier in this field.
Looking back at the 2020 season, Redman got in the mix without truly breaking through. He finished third at Wyndham and Safeway and added a fourth-place finish at Bermuda. Redman relies on a strong tee-to-green game, having gained off the tee in five straight events. Like most players, there are certain lineups where I may look elsewhere to guys with stronger around-the-green games, but that doesn’t mean Redman isn’t appealing at a $7,500 price tag. If he showcases his abilities on these par 5’s, he should find the weekend.
Also Considering – Si Woo Kim, Charley Hoffman
Lower-Priced Fantasy Golf Picks
Wyndham Clark: $7.1k DraftKings, $8.6k FanDuel
Since this is a full field, we are going to have a ton more options in the lower ranges but also a ton of guys with little to no pedigree or recent form to go off of. That opens it up for mostly tournament plays and trying to catch lightning in a bottle with high-upside players. One of those has to be Wyndham Clark, who comes into the tournament looking to keep momentum from the tail end of 2020. Clark was runner-up at Bermuda in November and is a boom/bust player worth considering in this spot.
The first thing to like is that Clark takes apart par 5’s, and not just with distance off the tee. He is an elite around-the-green player, having gained in six of his last seven, which is going to be important here. A lot of these par 5’s are going to require up-and-downs, and Clark is towards the top of that list. He is a streaky putter, which is another benefit, and I have little worry about him being able to go low enough if this plays super easy.
The big concern is that his iron play has never been a strength. To push back on that, there are a handful of guys that are effective with a different blend of skills, and Clark is on that list. He combines an aggressive off-tee game with a crafty short game to mitigate what is a weakness on the approach. That can get the job done here, and he should be considered when building tournament lineups this week.
Also Considering – Luke List (GPP Only)
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