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Cadence Bank Houston Open DFS Golf Picks: Tony Finau Projected for Strong Week

Geoff Ulrich

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Mexico Open 2022 one and done picks this week free expert PGA golf predictions Tony Finau

There are two events left on the fall schedule for the PGA Tour, and this week it heads to Houston for the Cadence Bank Houston Open. This event used to be held right before the Masters at a different course but has since been moved to the late fall and been hosted by Memorial Park Golf Course in each of the past two years. Memorial Park is a longer par 70 venue that has only yielded winning scores of 13 and 10 under par in the last two seasons. This week will be a big change for the players as the softer resort style courses of the past two weeks put a huge emphasis on short iron play, and short to medium putting efficiency.

The field in Houston will be somewhat like last week, as there are eight players from the top 50 in the OWGR playing. Tony Finau and Scottie Scheffler are both back in action, as is last week’s runaway winner Russell Henley. The last two winners of this event, Carlos Ortiz and Jason Kokrak have both defected to the LIV Golf Tour, so there will be a new winner this year at Memorial Park regardless of who takes home the title.

As always, this article will use Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections down below to help get started in the right direction for PGA DFS lineups and target some of the top projected players and values for the week.

Cadence Bank Houston Open DFS Golf Picks

Memorial Park is a long par 70 that fits in nicely from a correlation perspective to a lot of other tougher venues on the PGA Tour. There are six par 4’s in play this week that measure over 450 yards with a couple of those play well over 500 yards. The venue is a non-traditional par 70 in that there’s three par 5’s and five par 3’s in play, which makes it similar in routing to Copperhead, a long and winding par 71 venue that hosts the Valspar Championship every year. Green in regulation percentages and driving accuracy numbers will go way down this week which should put a bigger emphasis on strokes gained off the tee and short game. The last two winners at Memorial Park have relied on extremely big putting weeks, but a more all-around effort looks to be needed as the venue will test players ability to hit accurate mid to long irons, and their short games.

Memorial Park Golf Course Stats and Info

  • Par 70, 7,412; second year in a row this event will play here.
  • Underwent massive renovations last year to be able to be used on tour; played as the 12th-hardest venue in 2020.
  • Long and tough par 70; players had below-average scrambling rates and greens-in-regulation percentages last year. Carlos Ortiz gained over five strokes around the greens in his win in 2020.

Cadence Bank Houston Open 2022 DFS Golf Picks

Tony Finau

Total Points Projection: 63.3 | Top 6 percentage: 24.1%

Finau is coming off a missed cut in Mayakoba, and that’s really pushed him into low sentiment territory this week. While Finau may get some late week heat, he should be 10% less owned than Scottie Scheffler across the industry, which creates a good leverage opportunity in large-field tournaments. From a PGA DFS projections standpoint, the Stokastic model certainly doesn’t hate the idea of starting with Finau either. He’s still ranked third in the overall point projections, with a smaller gap between he and Scheffler than last week.

Set-up wise, Finau has come to these tougher courses and perform very well over his career. He has multiple top-5 finishes at longer courses like Riviera and Copperhead where 450-yard par 4’s are the norm, and the need for par 5 scoring intensifies. From a long-term outlook, it’s also interesting that he’s still ranked first in strokes gained tee to green and also ranks first par-4 efficiency, from 450 to 500 yards, over the last 50 rounds. Finau should bounce back this week on a tougher course and with some of the lowest PGA DFS ownership projections for a fall series event.

Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings 4.0% | FanDuel 5.9%

The Stats:

  • Ranks first in strokes gained tee to green and par 4 efficiency from 450 to 500 yards over the last 50 rounds.
  • Has multiple top-5 finishes at Colonial and TPC San Antonio, two other Texas-based venues.

Keith Mitchell

Total Points Projection: 52.9 | Top 6 percentage: 11.2%

Much like Finau, Keith Mitchell comes into this week’s event with lower sentiment based off his missed cut at the Mayakoba last week. He hasn’t posted any huge results this fall, but long-term form indicates he is a player to target this week given his skillset. The winner of the Honda Classic in 2019, Mitchell still ranks first in strokes gained off the tee over the last 50 rounds of play and is 17th in tee to green over the same time frame.

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While his putter has gone somewhat cold of late there was a five event stretch this year where Mitchell gained over 1.5 strokes putting in each event. His ability to spike with that club makes him similar in profile to last year’s winner, Jason Kokrak, and Mitchell’s only win came at another event in the Honda where higher scoring was the theme of the week. The Stokastic PGA DFS projections are high on him as well, as he has the best point projection of any player below $9,000 on DraftKings — which is a solid recommendation on its own given the talent in that range. Mitchell’s a good course fit and is trending as a good low-owned value target in DFS this week.

Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings 7.6% | FanDuel 7.5%

The Stats:

  • Ranks first in strokes gained off the tee over the last 24 and 50 rounds of play.
  • Has now made 11 of his last 13 cuts on the PGA Tour.

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Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP Flier

Wyndham Clark

Total Points Projection: 49.2 | Top 6 percentage: 8.3%

This week’s setup tends to favor longer drivers who can also roll the rock with extreme efficiency on the greens. That style does truly describe Wyndham Clark’s game to a tee and the American looks like he’ll be a good lower-owned pivot play in the high $7,000 range on DraftKings. Clark is projecting with under 5% ownership right now and he’s sandwiched above a couple of players in Will Gordon and Dean Burmester, who are coming off big weeks over in Mexico and are projecting with upwards of 10% ownership in the Stokastic PGA DFS ownership projections.

Clark’s game sets up very similarly top those two players and while he’s not posted a top 10 yet this fall, neither of the past two winners of this event had accomplished that feat either, prior to their win. Despite a sometimes-wonky approach game, Clark ranks 20th in strokes gained around the green in longer term form and is an elite putter who is trending with more positive Bermuda splits over the last year or so. His last outing saw him gain over 6.0 strokes ball-striking so if he can continue that uptrend in the long game, he’ll have a great chance for a big week if his best club (the putter) turns around.

Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 4.6% | FanDuel 2.6%

  • Gained 5.1 strokes off the tee at the CJ Cup.
  • 20th in strokes gained around the green and 13th in DraftKings points over the last 50 rounds.

Top 2 Under 5% in DraftKings Fantasy Golf This Week

This section will target players that should end up under or close to 5% ownership in larger DraftKings Golf GPPs. These picks are boom/bust PGA DFS players with an almost 100% focus on the upside.

Luke List ($7,300)

List endured a terrible late summer to early fall slump but has been showing some signs of life as his around-the-green game has gained him strokes now in two straight starts now. List still ranks top 10 in strokes gained off the tee and tee to green over the last 50 rounds and the tougher scoring conditions at Memorial Park are ideal for a player with his skillset. If he can find any luck with the putter, a strong week is possible. He’s projecting to be extremely low owned across all contests as well.

Gary Woodland ($7,000)

The venue change this week is drastic from the last two events, and that means players like Woodland could pop up on the leaderboard. Woodland’s struggled this fall but has good results on lots of similar courses like Copperhead and TPC San Antonio. This is a good fit for the 2019 US Open winner who is still striking it well and perhaps needs a tougher venue to see an uptick in his around the green play.

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