We are heading to the desert for the Waste Management Open at TPC Scottsdale in Arizona. This is one of the best PGA events with outrageous and wild crowds which makes for some great TV and exciting drama come Sunday. The 16th hole is where most of the madness takes place, as it’s a stadium seating venue where the traditional golf fan behavior goes out the window. On the PGA DFS side, we have quality tournaments across the industry, but don’t forget about the golf betting markets which have a ton of opportunities as well.
Similar to last week, this is a quality field although we don’t have as many players to deal with. That makes things a little easier to break down and we do not have a rotational which means everyone will see the same course for every day of play.
For additional info about the course and some guys to consider in your lineups, make sure to read the DFS Waste Management Above the Cut Article which can help you build teams, but let’s take a look at what we have on the betting side of things.
** When betting PGA outrights, one of the most important aspects is making sure you shop around for the best number available to you. Over time, this can make a massive difference in the results so make sure to stay tuned for all the resources available to help you find the most value when looking across the golf betting markets.**
Futures/Outrights Winners
Bryson DeChambeau 28-1
We didn’t see DeChambeau last week as he was in Dubai playing on the Euro tour. The eighth-place finish was disappointing considering the 76 shot in round four, but DeChambeau showed some signs of life. Now, the travel from Dubai isn’t ideal, but that’s a minimal consideration in the PGA betting market.
Odds-wise, 28-1 is more than reasonable for a guy who obviously can rack up wins on tour. DeChambeau hasn’t played his best late, but five wins already proves the win equity is there and the form isn’t overly concerning. His only appearance at Waste Management was a fifth-place finish back in 2018, and there is no reason this course shouldn’t fit his game. Although there are some powerful names up top, it is still more than enough value to take a stab on DeChambeau when he is sitting at odds like this.
Byeong Hun An 80-1
This is a longer shot, but worth some exposure to your betting card. An is a frustrating golfer since his putter is a massive issue and he wastes some strong tee-to-green performances. Still, An has the talent to grab wins on tour and has three runner-up finishes on the resume already.
A quick look at last week shows a lopsided strokes-gained performance, but one that is all too common. An finished 68th at the Farmers, but gained 3.4 strokes on the approach which should translate into a better showing than that. The Achilles heel once again was the putter, as An lost 7.2 strokes putting and that’s just on the three recorded rounds we have from the South Course. That’s difficult to fathom even if we know putting can change on the fly.
An sets up well at Waste Management where he can lean on the irons and not get into a putting contest. Last year, he was in contention before shooting a Sunday 76 which dropped him all the way down to 20th. That Sunday masked a lot of good and with these odds sitting around 80-1, we have massive potential if he can hang in contention.
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Top 10
Charley Hoffman 8-1
I am not trying to chase here as Hoffman closed with a 65 last week to launch him into the top 10 at Farmers. That was a desperate sign of life for a guy who has struggled, but it could be a turning point early in the season. I don’t have a ton of interest in backing Hoffman for a pure outright, but a top 10 has me interested at these odds.
Hoffman has made six straight cuts at this event and although the finishes have been uneventful, made cuts are always step one in cashing bets. If Hoffman can get the irons back up to his usual level, there is no reason he can’t compete in a field like this. 8-1 on a top 10 is appealing and Hoffman is someone I will have exposure to in both DFS and golf betting markets.
Matchup
Zach Johnson -115 vs J.B. Holmes
This is more an indictment of Holmes rather than backing Johnson. Neither guy has been super impressive lately, but to me, Johnson is much more fit to back in a head-to-head situation. He is not volatile and the five of five made cuts here at Waste Management just further that point.
On the other side of this matchup is Holmes who is the complete opposite in terms of volatility. Last year, Holmes had a win at the Genesis sandwiched between three missed cuts, so his game can flip like a switch. Still, the form has been mostly bad and despite the 16th last week, I don’t see many positives to point to in terms of strokes gained. The only reason Holmes cracked the top 20 last week was due to over four strokes gained putting, which is an outlier. Unless that continues, he will need to improve his tee-to-green game, or else start another missed-cut streak.
This is simply a case where Johnson should be much safer and a middling finish could easily be enough. If I had to choose one of these guys to win the tournament, I would probably go Holmes, but I also easily would back Holmes to miss the cut over Johnson. The boom/bust isn’t what we want for head-to-head matchups and this -115 line is enough for me to back the consistency over the volatility.
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Quick Notes
If you are unfamiliar with golf betting, or just looking to dive into it for the first time, make sure to understand each type of bet and how to properly allocate bankroll. When choosing a few outrights at long odds, we are hoping to hit one of those a year as it would pay for the entire season and then some. Think of that as the large-field GPPs where you hope to tread water and then rely on a big hit once every year or so.
On the other side, we have head-to-head bets which naturally are more like cash games or head-to-heads in DFS where you aren’t going to win a huge multiplier of your money, but also should be hitting them at a reasonable clip. Just getting a clearer picture of what each bet is like is important as this is a long season with a lot of opportunities to take some stabs in the betting markets.
Good luck everyone!
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