After a swing season layoff to focus on the NFL, the Approach is back until next September with a FREE weekly peak into Awesemo’s top grades and values for the coming slate on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo, FantasyDraft and SuperDraft. One week in and we’ve already got a picked winner under our belt. This week, the PGA Tour heads back to California for the Pebble Beach Pro-Am and the big question facing our DFSers is, Patrick Cantlay or Dustin Johnson?
The following PGA DFS picks are based of Awesemo’s grade and value rankings, which are derived directly from his projections.
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Last Week Review
It was not the worst start ever to the 2020 season for our picks, based off Awesemo’s projections. Here’s how our three golfers finished:
- Webb Simpson: First (won in a playoff)
- Byeong Hun An: Tied-ninth
- Scottie Scheffler: Missed on the number
As well, our low-owned GPP flier Sebastian Munoz finished a respectable 47th.
Pebble Beach
Pebble, as always, is one of the tougher courses on tour to prognosticate, with no Shot Link data on two of the three courses. The Pebble Beach Golf Links course will host two of the four rounds and has some of the smallest greens on tour. Historically, Strokes Gained: Approach (SG: APP) accounts for almost half of all of the strokes gained by top-10 finishers here, while Strokes Gained Putting (SG: P) also indexes higher, at the expense of Strokes Gained Off the Tee (SG: OTT).
The Courses
- Pebble Beach: 6,816 yards, par 72
- Spyglass Hill: 7,035 yards, par 72
- Monterey Peninsula: 6,959 yards, par 71
- Three par 5’s
Course Features
- Fast, Poa Annua Greens
- One total water hazard
- Wide fairways
- Small, undulating green complexes
PGA DFS Picks: Top Range
Patrick Cantlay: Grade: A+, Values: C, D
Two golfers stand out at the top of this field, and though we don’t have ownership projections yet, my guess is the majority of GPP lineups will contain at least one with Dustin Johnson as the most-owned player in the field. Though Johnson has course history on his side (three top-fives in his last five appearances), Patrick Cantlay feels like a great course fit with his elite par-4 scoring and great approach game. Cantlay is off to a strong start in 2020 with two top-fives in his last four events, and he is an elite DFS scorer, ranking first in the field in Birdie or Better over the mid term. Hopefully we’ll get an ownership discount off of Dustin Johnson, but really both golfers are viable in this spot as a starting point in your PGA DFS lineups.
Other Option: Dustin Johnson
The Stats:
- Second in Mid-Term (MT) SG: APP
- Second in the field in weighted scoring average, 2020 season
- Fourth in MT Par 4 scoring
- First in MT DFS scoring
- First in Long Term (LT) Birdies or Better
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PGA DFS Picks: Mid Range
Russell Knox: Grades: B, Values: C
Russell Knox is as safe as plays come this week, at a nice price point with a great chance of making the cut. The knock, though, is that he lacks GPP-winning upside, with zero top-five finishes on tour over the past three years, despite 19 top-25 finishes. Maybe that trend isn’t predictive, but it is a little worrisome if you’re trying to win it all. Over his past three years at Pebble, Knox has two top-15 finishes and he’s also hot right now, with no finishes below 50th place since September (nine of nine cuts made). If we’re going by long-term strokes gained data, he’s the sixth-best golfer in the field, but is priced in the 15-20 range on various DFS sites. Course fit-wise, he’s top-five in MT SG: APP and top-10 in SG: Par 4 Scoring. Find your local sportsbook and fire away on a top-20 bet (+200).
To check out all of our PGA DFS content, head over to the Awesemo PGA Home Page. Jason Rouslin and Ben Rasa have you covered with loads of free articles every week, breaking down recent form, course history and more!
Other options: Alex Noren
The stats:
- Sixth in the field in LT Strokes Gained: Total (SG: TOT)
- Fourth in SG: APP
- Third in the field in weighted scoring average
PGA DFS Picks: Low Range
Aaron Wise: Grades: B, Values: B
This is a great spot to get back on Aaron Wise at low-ownership after five straight missed cuts. DFSers will be scared off by Wise’s lack of recent success, but a closer look reveals he’s just been on the wrong side of variance, missing every one of these cuts by two shots or fewer. He’s also lost seven strokes putting over his last three events. In his only appearance at Pebble, Wise finished tied for 15th, following that up with a 35th at last year’s U.S. Open. Though his greatest strength is off the tee, we’ve seen those kinds of players have success here before. It also helps that even though he’s struggled, he’s still scoring at an elite rate, which of course makes him ideal for DFS.
The Stats:
- Third in SG: P4 400-450 yards (30% of holes)
- Top-20 in MT SG: Ball Striking (SG: BS) and SG: Tee to Green
- Fourth in MT Birdie or Better
Low-Owned GPP Flier
Stay tuned once ownership drops later this afternoon!
