The PGA Tour FedEx Cup playoffs begin this week with the FedEx St. Jude Championship. The playoffs are generally held at a rotating band of courses, but this week will see the players on a venue that has been used a lot on the PGA Tour in previous seasons in TPC Southwind. Formally the host of the WGC FedEx St. Jude Classic, TPC Southwind is located in Memphis, Tenn., and could bring some of the hottest temperatures we’ve seen all season. For daily fantasy golf purposes, the field will be reduced this week to 125 players (the top 125 players in the FedEx Cup standings). From a field perspective, it’s the first time we’ll be seeing the likes of Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele and Rory McIlroy since the Open Championship in mid-July and we’ll discuss below the trends and how rest has impacted players in this first playoff event in the past.
There’s lots to wade through this week, with the FedEx Cup bubble in play as well, so don’t forget to check out the Stokastic projections, which have both scoring data and ownership projections. Stokastic projections come out on Monday and will be updated throughout the week. There’s a ton of big PGA DFS contests around the industry so be sure to check them out before making any final decisions.
PGA DFS Preview | FedEx St. Jude Championship 2022
The Wyndham showcased the rise of another top young talent in Joohyung (Tom) Kim. Kim gained full status for the 2022-23 season with his seventh-place finish in Detroit but was playing with house money this week and turned it into the first win of his career at the Wyndham. Now Kim will get to play in the FedEx Cup playoffs and perhaps turn this season ending run into something even bigger. Kim was another in a long line of young players who have torn up the under-defended and simple setup that is Sedgefield. Over the past decade it’s been the site of first PGA Tour wins for Patrick Reed (2014), Si Woo Kim (2016) and now Jooyhung Kim (2022).
Top Strokes Gained from Wyndham
Approach: Russell Henley +7.8
Tee to Green: Anirban Lahiri +11.8
Putting: Jooyhung Kim +12.2 (ranked just 44th in strokes tee to green)
FedEx St. Jude Championship PGA DFS Picks and Preview
The FedEx St. Jude Championship is field starts to pare down. There’s a regular cut this week in the actual tournament (top 65 and ties play the weekend) but regardless of where you finish in this event, anyone outside of the top 70 in the FedEx Cup standings once it ends is done for the year and doesn’t get a spot in the BMW Championship the following week. The other quirk with this event is that
Here’s a list of the top 10 players in the FedEx Cup playoffs heading into the first playoff event of the season.
- Scottie Scheffler
- Cameron Smith
- Sam Burns
- Xander Schauffele
- Patrick Cantlay
- Rory McIlroy
- Tony Finau
- Justin Thomas
- Cameron Young
- Hideki Matsuyama
Notables: Will Zalatoris (11), Matthew Fitzpatrick (13), Maverick McNealy (30), Adam Scott (78), Justin Rose (98)
There will be a lot of players in the field this week who haven’t teed it up at all since the Open Championship. It’s only a three- to four-week layoff, but don’t expect everyone to come in super sharp. None of the top 10 players have huge injury concerns but there’s certainly some names like Daniel Berger (back) and Jason Day (illness — in perpetuity) to keep an eye on for withdraws early in the week. Tommy Fleetwood (withdraw — personal) is the only big name — other than the Liv Golf Tour defectors — who won’t be in the field this week. Other than that, it is full throttle from a field strength perspective, and there should be multiple big-time performances from many of the elite names this week.
The FedEx St. Jude Championship/Northern Trust Past Winners
2021: Tony Finau (50-1)
- Lead-in: Week off/34th/28th/15th
2020: Dustin Johnson (18-1)
- Lead-in: Week off/2nd/12th/MC
2019: Patrick Reed (50-1)
- Lead-in: 22nd (Wyndham)/12th/10th
2018: Bryson DeChambeau (66-1)
- Lead-in: Week off/MC/30th/51st
2017: Dustin Johnson (14-1)
- Lead-in: Week off/13th/17th/8th
Analysis: A lot of mid-range winners have struck for this event. Both Cameron Smith and Tony Finau (the playoff combatants from 2021) were down the list in terms of odds. Four of the last five winners have also taken the week prior off with the lone exception being Patrick Reed from 2019, who played in the Wyndham the week prior and finished top-25.
Want to see who is trending as a strong play early? Check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Course Preview
This week sees the FedEx St. Jude Classic, a long mainstay on the PGA Tour schedule, move into a FedEx Cup playoff event for the first time in its existence. This venue used to host the FedEx St. Jude Classic (played directly prior to the U.S. Open) but was then turned into a WGC event for three years. The event will maintain its August date this year but now becomes part of the playoff system.
TPC Southwind (Memphis, Tennessee): Par 70, 7,243 yards
Greens: Champion Bermudagrass
Designer: Ron Prichard (with Hubert Green and Fuzzy Zoeller)
Similar Courses:
- Copperhead Country Club
- PGA National
- TPC Sawgrass
- Aronimink Golf Club
Course Correlations
Some other venues on tour have similar tendencies and have leaderboards worth checking out. These are generally tighter tracks with smaller Bermuda greens that require precision ball striking. TPC Southwind may be located in Memphis, but it tends to have a lot in common with the venues on the Florida swing in March to April.
Copperhead Country Club (Valspar)
- Russell Henley (T7 Sedgefield, winner Sony Open and Honda Classic)
PGA National (Honda Classic)
- Daniel Berger (two-time winner at TPC Southwind; lost in playoff at PGA National — 2016)
- Justin Thomas (has won at both courses — PGA National in 2018 and TPC Southwind in 2020)
TPC Sawgrass (Players Championship)
- Cameron Smith (Winner Players in 2022 and was in contention deep at TPC Southwind in 2021 — 5th)
- Si Woo Kim (Winner Sedgefield, winner TPC Sawgrass and runner-up Hilton Head)
Aronimink Golf Club
- Another Ron Prichard designed venue (also plays as par 70) and former host of the BMW Championship
TPC Southwind Past Winners and Stats
2021 — Abraham Ancer (16 Under Par — played as a WGC)
- Won in a 3-man playoff against Sam Burns and Hideki Matsuyama
- Each of the playoff participants ranked in the top-six for strokes gained approach stats for the week — Matsuyama was 2nd and gained 8.9 strokes on approach
- Ancer was consistent throughout the bag, shot a second round 62 and avoided the big numbers on Sunday as other crumbled
Strokes Gained: TTG +8.6; APP +4.4; OTT +1.4; ATG +2.9; PUTT +3.6
2020 — Justin Thomas (13 Under Par — played as a WGC)
- Venue played quite tough in 2020 (a lot of blowups from big names) with fast green speeds and hard to hit fairways
- Thomas was by far and away the best tee to green, was second in approach stats and third in around the green stats
- The rare case of “lost strokes putting” but still won, don’t expect history to repeat that much though, unless the course really dries out again
Strokes Gained: TTG +13.1; APP +7.7; OTT +2.3; ATG +3.1; PUTT -1.9
2019 — Brooks Koepka (16 Under Par — played as a WGC)
- Koepka’s win was pretty much the exact opposite performance of Thomas from 2020
- Went absolutely nuclear on the Bermuda greens with his putter and hit the ball well enough that his terrible around the green performance didn’t drag him down
- Spike putting weeks on Southwind are common so don’t be shocked if there is a blend of elite ball striking and hot putters get in the mix again
Strokes Gained: TTG +4.7; APP +3.2; OTT +3.7; ATG -2.3; PUTT +9.3
What the Players Are Saying About TPC Southwind
Justin Thomas (2021)
“It’s a great track. It’s all right in front of you. I think it’s one of those places that kind of stands over time, it’s not a place that’s going to change much each year. You really could play nine holes as a practice round but kind of check it out and see what the firmness or softness is like and if there’s much rough, then from there it’s just about going out and hitting the shots and take advantage of some opportunities when you get them.
Dustin Johnson (2021)
“It’s a golf course where you’ve got to hit pretty much every club in the bag. You’ve got to drive it well, that’s first and foremost. If you’re not playing out of the fairway, it’s going to be a long day. Even the rough, the rough’s not that deep, but it’s Bermuda rough, ball always sits down, it’s tough to judge how it comes out.
Daniel Berger (2021)
“It reminds me of the place I grew up at, the Dye Preserve in South Florida. I’m familiar with that type of grass, the Bermuda grass, the temperatures get hot there, too. I just have a sense of calm when I get out there.”
Abraham Ancer (2021)
“If you hit a good putt it’s going to go in … these greens are just so perfect”
Xander Schauffele (2020)
“I think TPC Southwind and all the folks here on property have always done such a nice job for us making this sort of trip easy. If you look at the golf course, it’s just a good playoff course.”
FedEx St. Jude Championship Horses to Watch
These are players who continue to defy logic with how consistent they have been at this week’s venue. This section will try to decipher what they do so well and why it allows them to flourish at this venue, but some of this is just player preference.
Want to see if the course horses will be popular? Check out Stokastic’s ownership projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.
- Daniel Berger (winner 2016 and 2017 at now defunct St. Jude Classic played at TPC Southwind, 2nd at TPC Southwind in 2020): Berger is the Webb Simpson equivalent to this week. He’s been dealing with injuries and his starting status is unknown as of writing.
- Hideki Matsuyama (lost in playoff 2021): Has played this venue each of the last three seasons and gained over 3.0 strokes on approach in his last two appearances
- Justin Thomas (Winner 2020): In addition to his 2020 win Thomas finished 12th at this event in 2019. Despite the great track record he has struggled on the greens and even lost strokes putting when he won in 2020. There’s lots of upside this week if his putter shows up.
Short Term Form: Strokes Gained on Approach (Last 24 Rounds)
- Tony Finau
- Xander Schauffele
- Rory McIlroy
- Russell Henley
- Brendan Steele
Long Term Form: Strokes Gained on Approach (Last 100 Rounds)
- Collin Morikawa
- Russell Henley
- Justin Thomas
- Daniel Berger
- Will Zalatoris
Top Five Total Strokes Gained Total (Last Six events)
- Tiny Finau
- Callum Tarren
- Emiliano Grillo
- Cameron Smith
- Cameron Davis
FedEx St. Jude Championship Weather Forecast
Thursday a.m.: 75-80 F, Winds 5 mph
Thursday p.m.: 90 F, Winds 5 mph, (small potential for light rain)
Friday a.m.: 75-85 F, Winds 5-8 mph
Friday p.m.: 85-90 F, Wings 8-9 mph, wind builds slightly but little gusts
As of now, this isn’t a week where wave stacking should play a massive role in strategy, but it is always a good idea to take a look at forecast again on Wednesday or watch the FedEx St. Jude Classic PGA DFS Live Before Lock show Wednesday night on the Stokastic YouTube Channel.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Early Betting Leans
Shane Lowry Top 10 | BetMGM
Lowry has been brilliant for most of the season and trends well in many different categories, including strokes gained: approach which has been his strongest part of his game all season. He’s been great on these tricky Bermuda laden tracks in the USA, landing top-five finishes this season alone at Hilton Head and the Honda Classic. Lowry’s taken down a WGC and major championship, so this kind of field won’t scare him and he landed a sixth place at TPC Southwind when it was still a WGC back in 2020. His odds should be more favorable this week after an 83rd placing (last of those who made the cut) at Sedgefield.
To see how Lowry rates out this week for betting and daily fantasy, check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS site projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.
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