Sanderson Farms Championship DFS Golf Picks: Sam Burns and Seamus Power Project as Best Value Plays on DraftKings

The PGA Tour makes its second start of the fall swing this week. The players head to Jackson, Mississippi to take on the Country Club of Jackson, a venue that’s been featured on the PGA Tour consistently for nearly a decade now. The field this week is missing much of the upper echelon star power and defending champion Sam Burns is the only golfer in the field who sits within the top 40 of the OWGR. Harris English, Russell Henley and Sahith Theegala are a few other bigger names who will try to give Burns a test this week. This column will use the Stokastic projections below to highlight who the best PGA DFS picks are this week at the Sanderson Farms Championship.

Sanderson Farms Championship DFS Golf Picks

The venue this week is the Country Club of Jackson, a longer par 72 that plays at 7,461 yards. The Country Club is a mostly parkland setting that’s beset by older trees in some areas but also features the odd water hazard. It’s an interesting blend of longer holes — where players can cut the course with a driver — and more claustrophobic driving chutes where accuracy takes precedence. The winners here have been a pretty eclectic group as well as shorter hitters, who tend to rely on spike weeks with their irons and putters (Ryan Armour and Peter Malnati), trended well on this venue early on. Lately, though, supreme ball strikers — specifically those with good distance off the tee — have overpowered this course with the past four winners all having gained over 3.0 strokes off the tee for the week of their win.

Country Club of Jackson Stats and Info

Par 72, 7,460 yards; plays as a traditional par 72 with four shorter par 5’s and features Bermuda greens that often lead to huge spike weeks in putting.
Driving accuracy numbers are typically lower than the tour average, and the parkland layout means players can get shut off from the green on their approach if they get too wild with the driver.
Strokes gained off the tee have been a strong indicator here of late, as the last four winners have all gained 3.5 strokes or more off the tee for the week — Burns gained 6.8 strokes off the tee last season.

Sanderson Farms Championship 2022 DFS Golf Picks

Sam Burns

Total Points Projection: 76.5 | Top 6 percentage: 22.38%

There’s nothing shocking about picking Burns this week, but it’s worth noting just how big a gap there is between Burns and the next tier of golfers. On Stokastic, Burns’ projected point total for the week is a massive 7.5 points higher than the second-ranked golfer in the model. That’s the kind of spread that’s hard to look away from. As is his 22.38% top six rate, which gives Burns a better than 1-in-5 chance of landing in the top six for us at the end of the week.

Burns is also obviously going to have massive ownership attached to him in daily fantasy golf this week and that kind of projection can be worth fading from a game theory standpoint. The issue though is that Burns isn’t just clearly the best player in this field, but he’s also somewhat underpriced at just $10,700 on DraftKings, where often massive favorites often go off at well over $11,000. All this stat stuff aside, Burns is also returning to a venue where he outright dominated last season, gaining over 6.0 strokes off the tee for the week and over 8.0 strokes on approach. He somehow got to 22 under par despite losing 2.0 strokes putting, and he’s typically very reliable — and very good — on the greens. The Presidents Cup hangover will likely dissipate by Thursday. Don’t be afraid to go overweight on what is clearly the best player available.

Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings 37.1% | FanDuel 40.7%

The Stats:

Gained 6.1 strokes off the tee and 8.3 strokes on approach at the Country Club last season.
Ranks first in birdies or better gained over the last 50 rounds.

Seamus Power

Total Points Projection: 63.5 | Top 6 percentage: 10.25%

It’s interesting that Seamus Power is in this field and isn’t receiving a ton of fanfare. The Irishman was a DFS darling at points last year for his consistency and he was certainly good for daily fantasy purposes last fall, putting together three top-12 finishes on this easier stretch of play. Power certainly showed some fatigue at the end of last season as he bombed out of the playoffs without much of a fight, but the same could be said for a lot of players. Power coming into this event with an extra week of rest, thanks to the Presidents Cup, is likely a good scenario for his chances.

Power has the highest points projection on Stokastic of any player under $9,000 in salary this week on DraftKings, a pretty heady moniker as he’s only $8,400 on that site. What we’re being told then is to trust the long-term data on Power, which has him severely underpriced this week on both major sites. Additionally, while the recent form may not be helpful, he did win his only event on an easier par 72 with Bermuda greens (at the Barbasol in Kentucky) and has good experience and course history at the Country Club of Jackson, with two top 20 finishes at this event over his last four starts here. Don’t be afraid to use him as a value add in player pools this week.

Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings 13.1% | FanDuel 8.1%

The Stats:

Ranks 21st in opportunities gained over the last 50 rounds.
Has played the Country Club five times and produced two top-20 finishes.

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Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP Flier

Chris Kirk

Total Points Projection: 61.3 | Top 6 percentage: 8.97%

The emphasis this week will likely be on off-the-tee play and the younger talent in the field. That means that steady consistent golfers like Chris Kirk — who is finally priced over $8,000 on DraftKings — could go overlooked. Kirk started off with a non-descript 43rd place finish at the Fortinet but was pretty sharp on and around the greens there. Bermuda has been a better surface for him, overall, as he put together a couple of nice top-10 finishes in Florida early in 2022 (Bay Hill and PGA National). He’s also a former winner of this event from way back in 2011 (as a rookie) when it was played as the Viking Classic and at a different venue.

The main attraction here though is ownership, which is projecting well below 10% on both major sites. Using Kirk as a second or third man in gets you access to a quality player who can easily perk up for a top-10 finish at an easier venue on his preferred putting surface. Expect to see him go better than his last start, at what is most certainly a more favorable venue for him in Jackson.

Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 8.4% | FanDuel 9.3%

Top 2 Under 5% in DraftKings Fantasy Golf This Week

This section will target players that should end up under or close to 5% ownership in larger DraftKings Golf GPPs. These picks are boom/bust PGA DFS players with an almost 100% focus on the upside.

Davis Thompson ($7,200)

Thompson is a player we should have some interest in after a hot start to his PGA career at Silverado, where he finished sixth. Thompson is just 23 years old, but his strength off the tee (sixth in driving distance last year on the Korn Ferry Tour) shouldn’t go overlooked with four par 5’s in play. He won last year on the Korn Ferry Tour and hails from nearby Alabama.

Patrick Rodgers ($7,100)

With a par 72 and four par 5’s, I also like getting back on the Rodgers train this week. He disappointed as pretty heavy chalk at the Fortinet but he’s always going to struggle if the putts don’t fall early for him. They were definitely not falling at all at Silverado, as he lost 2.5 strokes putting over two rounds. Rodgers should carry sub-5% ownership this week and ranks 11th in par 5 efficiency over the last 50 rounds. He’s a solid GPP target and has two top-20 finishes at this event in five career starts.

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