The College Football National Championship has finally arrived. With Ohio State set to face Alabama, the Crimson Tide are 8.5-point favorites with the game total sitting at 74.5 points. Both teams enter this contest with undefeated seasons. However, Alabama sits at 12-0, which Ohio State enters this contest with just seven wins after an abbreviated season. Still, this game projects to be a high-scoring shootout with fireworks on both sides. With that said, here’s the top CFB DFS picks on DraftKings and college football betting picks for the National Championship.
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College Football National Championship CFB DFS & Betting Picks
Ohio State CFB DFS Picks
Overview – As a team, Ohio State finished the 2020 season with a 7-0 record and four victories over ranked opponents. Under coach Ryan Day, the Buckeyes rank 74.5 plays per game and passed the ball 40.2% of the time. Hyper efficient, this offense finished third overall in points per game (43.4). Ohio State continues to deal with an ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. At this time, it isn’t known who will miss the game. However, rumors suggest Ohio State may lose two kickers and Noah Togiai for this contest, among others.
On defense Ohio State played exceedingly well against the run. As a team they allowed just 110.2 yards rushing per game without permitting a single individual player to eclipse 100 yards passing. Against the pass Ohio State displayed cracks against certain opponents. The Buckeyes allowed 242.9 yards per game, but the strongest offenses took advantage of this matchup. Indiana’s Michael Penix Jr. and Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence notched 491 and 400 yards passing, respectively. Even receivers like Northwestern’s Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman found success against Ohio State. Chiaokhiao-Bowman and Penn State’s Jahan Dotson both eclipsed 100 yards receiving, making the pass an area to target for Alabama.
Justin Fields ($17,100) – Performing when it counts, Fields enters the National Championship fresh of his best game of the season. He diced up an impressive Clemson defense for 385 yards passing and six touchdowns. On the year, Fields completed 73.4% of his passes for 9.9 yards per attempts. Throwing the ball just 27.6 times per game, Fields currently averaged 272 yards. However, while Fields may not pass with immense volume, he also contributes with his legs. Fields currently holds 316 yards rushing yards on the year, giving him equal upside as a dual threat. While Fields certainly carries upside, seeing him enter the slate with a higher price than Mac Jones is curious.
Trey Sermon ($13,800) – Taking advantage of a two-game absence from Master Teague, Sermon has carried 60 total times in Ohio State’s last two games. Impressively, Sermon put up 331 and 191 yards rushing against Northwestern and Clemson. Also active as a pass catcher, Sermon has five targets in back-to-back games while boasting an 8.3% target share this season. Easily averaging over 100 yards on the ground per game, Sermon’s biggest nemesis is game script, with Ohio State projected to lose by 8.5 points.
Master Teague ($6,300) – After suffering a concussion in the Big Ten Championship, Teague finally looks healthy enough to make his return. With Miyan Williams expected to miss this game, Teague should enter the picture as a change-of-pace back for Ohio State. Teague actually had the most touches in this backfield prior to injury, but Sermon’s emergence most likely renders Teague a cheaper dart throw on the Showdown slate.
Chris Olave ($13,200) – Despite missing the Big Ten Championship due to Covid-19 protocols, Olave still enters the National Championship as Ohio State’s hottest receiver. With 658 yards on the year, Olave easily averages over 100 yards receiving per game. He also averages 10 targets per game in his last three contest, making him a favorite of Fields of late. Still priced up in this spot, Olave makes sense as a top stacking option with Fields, and he is also a potential Captain.
Garrett Wilson ($10,500) – Cooling of late, Wilson only averages 6.3 targets per game in Ohio State’s last four contests. Still, Wilson leads the Buckeyes in receiving with 673 yards and 96 per game. Interestingly, Wilson enters this game with a cheaper price tag than Olave. Displaying similar upside all season, buying a Wilson bounce back makes sense.
Jameson Williams ($3,900) – The seldom-used third receiver for Ohio State, Williams popped up for 62 yards in the College Football Playoff semi-final. Williams has only been targeted 11 times this season, but he continues to function as Ohio State’s third receiver. Williams ran 21 routes (62%) compared to eight from Jaxon Smith-Njigba and five from Julian Fleming.
Jeremy Ruckert ($7,200) & Luke Farrell ($3,300) – Running 12-personnel at an increased rate, tight ends stole the show in the College Football Playoff semi-final against Clemson. Combined Ruckert and Farrell accounted for three touchdowns on just five catches. Ruckert and Farrell both ran a route on 47% of Ohio State’s dropbacks last week, and both average just above three targets per game in their last four contests. With Ruckert entering this contest with an elevated price tag, Farrell looks like a superior price-adjusted play.
Alabama CFB DFS Picks
Overview – Entering the National Championship with a perfect 12-0 record, Alabama defeated five ranked opponents along the way. Under head coach Nick Saban and offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, Alabama ran 69.6 plays per game with a 47.5% pass rate. Displaying similar efficiency to Ohio State, Alabama finishing second overall in points per game (48.2).
On defense Alabama showed similar struggles to Ohio State. They played stout run defense, permitting just 89.1 yards per game and two individual 100-yard rushers on the year (Snoop Conner and Jerrion Ealy). However, they displayed cracks against the pass in certain matchups. Alabama allowed 300 yards passing to Kyle Trask and Matt Corral, with decent amount of production coming from tight ends and running backs. Individually, Kyle Pitts, Kenny Yeboah and Jalen Wydermyer all eclipsed 80 yards receiving against the Tide, making this an interesting stylistic matchup for Ohio State.
Mac Jones ($16,200) – One of the most efficient signal-callers in all of college football, Jones completed 77% of his passes for 11.3 yards per attempt. In total, Jones attempted 30.1 passes per game while notching 335.8 yards. While Jones offers nothing with his legs, he reached the 300-yard passing bonus in seven of 12 games this season. With a 300-yard bonus firmly in his range of outcomes, Jones warrants Captain consideration.
Najee Harris ($15,900) – Entering this game off a modest 155-yard game, Harris continues to play efficient football in the shadow of Devonta Smith. Harris averages 23 touches per game and 115 yards as a pure rusher. Harris is an excellent pass catcher, ranking third on Alabama in overall targets (46). Already posting 27 touchdowns this year, Harris warrants Captain consideration.
Devonta Smith ($18,000) – Heisman-winner Smith will look to close out his historic season after averaging 137 yards receiving per game. Smith finished the year with 1,641 receiving yards and 20 receiving touchdowns, notching the 100-yard bonus on eight occasions. While Smith is the most expensive player on the slate, he clearly deserves Captain consideration.
John Metchie ($9,300) – With Jaylen Waddle hurt for most of the year, Metchie has functioned as Jones’ WR2. Even with a healthy Waddle, Metchie ran a route on nearly even offensive dropback. On the year Metchie averages 5.4 targets per game for 69.6 yards. Perhaps a bit expensive, with Garrett Wilson just slightly more, Metchie provides a cheaper attachment to this Alabama offense. If Waddle suits up, Metchie’s targets may take a hit.
Jaylen Waddle ($11,100) – Heading into the week, Saban called Waddle a game-time decision. Waddle only received practice clearance six days ago, giving him little time to acclimate to game speed. Prior to his absence, Waddle averaged 7.3 targets per game and 139.3 yards receiving per contest. Even if active, Waddle projects to play on a pitch count. Priced up after a few individuals harassed DraftKings, Waddle is extremely expensive for his projected role. He is nothing more than a tournament dart throw.
Slade Bolden ($4,500) – Technically the third receiver, Bolden did not replace Waddle in a direct fashion. Alabama decided to increase their 12-personnel usage and use Bolden as a complement. Bolden averaged just 2.8 targets per game in his last four. He ran a route on just 42% of dropbacks in the College Football Playoff semi-final, making him a pure dart throw here.
Miller Forristall ($3,600) & Jahleel Billingsley ($8,100) – Alabama rotates their personnel depending on available players. With a healthy Waddle, this team ran almost all 11-personnel. Without Waddle, Alabama morphed into a 12-personnel offense with Forristall and Billingsley. Last week, Forristall ran a route on 76% of dropbacks, while Billingsley came in at 58%. Forristall has run more routes than Billingsley in each of Alabama’s last four games. Forristall has also out-targeted Billingsley 27-to-17 over the course of the season, making pricing quite curious here.
College Football Betting Picks
Alabama -8.5 – Between the COVID-19 situation and Ohio State’s struggles against Northwestern and Indiana this year, Alabama holds advantage on both sides of the ball. This line may move prior to kickoff when Ohio State’s inactives are announced. Getting this early in the day makes sense. For those looking at Ohio State, waiting till kickoff may provide a better line.
Devonta Smith Under 141.5 Yards Receiving – While Smith is the top receiver in college football, this receiving prop is egregiously high. Smith averaged 137 yards receiving this season, but a number of concerns remain. Waddle’s return may depress targets. Smith eclipsed this receiving total six times, but average drops to 121 yards with Waddle active.
Brian Robinson Over 17.5 Yards Rushing – Bookmakers project Alabama to win this game by 8.5 points. Robinson averages 7.6 touches and 34 yards per game this year. However, his touches rise drastically with Alabama’s margin of victory. Even if it comes down to garbage time, Robinson looks likely to exceed these totals.
Garrett Wilson Over 75.5 Receiving Yards – Ohio State projects to play from behind, suggesting a pass-heavy game script for Ohio State. Olave’s receiving prop comes in at 103.5 yards despite receiving equal opportunity to Wilson over the course of the season. For those betting an Ohio State receiving prop, Wilson brings the better number in a similar situation.
Justin Fields Under 296.5 Passing Yards – A bit of a hedge of Wilson, Fields’ passing prop is egregiously high at 296.5 yards. Fields averages 27.5 pass attempts per game and has only eclipsed 30 on two occasions this season. His highest attempt total came against Penn State (34). With this yardage prop, Fields will need to live off efficiency in one of his toughest matchups all season. While game script projects to work in his favor, this number is elevated as does his completion and pass attempt prop numbers.
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