Friday, Sept. 11, has an 8:05pm ET start with a nine-game main slate on DraftKings, FanDuel, SuperDraft and Yahoo. Before you lock in your MLB DFS lineups and MLB DFS picks, make sure to check out check out Awesemo’s DFS baseball MLB rankings and projections.
For the Friday MLB DFS Strategy Show click HERE.
Early-Slate Picks
Atlanta Braves at RHP Erick Fedde – 5.8 implied runs
The defending World Series Champions are unlikely to make the post season, and Atlanta is firing on all cylinders. In their last dozen games, the Braves have plated 105 runs. For perspective, this season the Rangers and Pirates have scored 160 runs each.
It is truly amazing to consider that Fedde has just a 6.7% swinging strike rate against the last 480 batters he has faced. This has resulted in a low 11.0% strikeout rate, which does not help offset his 10.0% walk rate. Against his last 370 same-handed hitters, he has allowed a 1.80 HR/9 with a .220 ISO. Lefties have not been as efficient with a 1.19 HR/9 and .170 ISO, but do not leave them out of your stacks.
Adam Duvall is lining up to be a great home run candidate in this matchup. Of course, the top of the order is where the bread is buttered, so focusing on Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, Marcell Ozuna and catcher Travis d’Arnaud are the core four to target. Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson and Nick Markakis are the differentiation options. As a bonus, Ozzie Albies is likely to be batting at the bottom of the order, but he is at a rock-bottom price point on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Related MLB DFS Content
- Learn MLB DFS: DraftKings + FanDuel Primer
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- Top Stack Tool (PREMIUM)
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- The MLB Strategy Show Live Before Lock
Main-Slate Picks
Milwaukee Brewers vs. LHP Jon Lester – 5.2 implied runs
While the Brewers have been a bottom-five team against righties, they are a top-five team against lefties. Over his last 748 lefty/righty matchups, Lester has ceded a 1.65 HR/9, 37.6% fly ball rate and 40.5% hard hit rate with a .200 ISO. This year he has allowed nine home runs in 40.1 innings, which would work out to around 45-50 in a normal season and would be leading the league.
The nice thing about rolling with Milwaukee is that we know exactly who to target. Keston Hiura, Avisail Garcia and Jedd Gyorko all have light-tower power against southpaws. Christian Yelich holds his own in lefty/lefty matchups, and of course veteran Ryan Braun can still get it done against lefties. Look to the bottom of the order for some discounted differentiation with Luis Urias and Jacob Nottingham.
Late-Slate Picks
San Diego Padres vs. RHP Johnny Cueto – 5.1 implied runs
We are going back to San Diego as our late-slate recommendation. They are a fine pivot away from the Coors Field Extravaganza on the main slate. Cueto continues to survive with his herky-jerky throwing style, but the deception is nowhere near as effective as it was earlier in his career. He can still hold his own against righties, but lefties have been hammering him. In his last 125 opposite-handed matchups, he is allowing a 1.98 HR/9 with a .270 ISO. Look to Trent Grisham and Mitch Moreland at the top of the order. For late-slate differentiation, Jake Cronenworth and Jurickson Profar are both cheap power sources at the bottom of the order.
Just because Cueto has survived against same-handed batsmen do not be shy about rolling out the premium priced Fernando Tatis Jr.and Manny Machado. In the late games Wil Myers and whomever is behind the dish between Austin Nola and Jason Castro can be in our player pools.
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