Aaron Jones has had repeat top-five fantasy running back seasons. Yet according to consensus, Jones is falling outside of the top five running backs in NFL fantasy football drafts and, at times, falling out of the first round. Is regression in the cards for Aaron Jones season or is the consensus wrong? We will look into Jones’ 2020 campaign and determine where he ranks in 2021.
2021 Fantasy Football Player Previews: Aaron Jones
| PPR Finish in 2020 | Half-PPR Finish in 2020 | Standard Finish in 2020 |
| RB #5 | RB #5 | RB #5 |
| PPR PPG Finish in 2020 | Half-PPR PPG Finish in 2020 | Standard PPG Finish in 2020 |
| RB #5 | RB #5 | RB #6 |
Aaron Jones’ Fantasy Production in 2020
Jones had 1,563 all-purpose yards and 19 total touchdowns in 2019, and many expected regression in 2020. However, the exact opposite happened. Playing in 14 games, Jones carried the ball 201 times (12th among backs) for 1,104 yards (fourth). He also had 46 receptions (12th) on 62 targets (ninth) for 347 yards (13th) and 11 total touchdowns (seventh). Even with scoring eight fewer touchdowns in 2020, Jones was still on top of the world. Despite touchdowns being so important in fantasy football, Jones’ output did not falter.
Packers Offseason Moves
One of the earliest moves the Packers made this offseason was bringing Jones back. While many would argue that they overpaid for Jones, re-signing him is another assurance in my mind that the offense will run a similar way in 2021. They also managed to bring Aaron Rodgers back. Had Jordan Love been the starter, Jones would be tougher to stomach as a top-tier back since the offense would not move the ball as efficiently.
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With a similar offense returning in 2021, Jones should yet again be a first-round pick. Considering the first round is filled with so much uncertainty via Saquon Barkley and Jonathan Taylor, Jones could go in the middle of the first round. If he can maintain a similar receiving volume with a similar number of carries, Jones should easily be a top-eight fantasy back. Some will point at AJ Dillon’s involvement, but that argument should be put to rest since Jamaal Williams was in a similar role last year and did nothing to Jones’ value. Comparing Williams’s to Dillon’s pass-catching prowess, it is clear that Williams is the superior receiver. Sure, Dillon will vulture some touchdowns, but that happens to every running back in the league. Do not buy too heavily into the Dillon hype because without an injury to Jones, he has little fantasy value. Jones should be in consideration to be a top-five pick, even with potential touchdown regression.
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