Ezekiel Elliott enters his sixth season in the NFL. After back-to-back 1,300-yard seasons, Elliott saw a drop in efficiency during the 2020 season. Dak Prescott and most of the offensive line was injured last year, so separating Ezekiel Elliott’s individual performance is difficult. Can Elliott return to his early career form and get back atop the fantasy football draft rankings for the 2021 season on Yahoo, CBS and ESPN leagues?
Fantasy Football Player Previews: Ezekiel Elliott
Ezekiel Elliott’s Production Profile
Elliott looks every bit the part of an NFL feature back. He has handled at least 300 carries in three of his five NFL seasons and racked up 1,434 and 1,357 yards rushing in in 2018 and 2019. He is also productive as a receiver, catching 77 and 54 passes in each of those seasons.Â
However, Elliott took a major step back in 2020, recording 979 yards rushing and six touchdowns on 244 attempts. This equated to 4 yards per carry, which was the lowest mark of his career. Similarly, Elliott caught 52 balls for 338 yards as a receiver. His 6.5 yards per reception also marked the low point of his career.Â
Check out Matt Gajewski’s breakdown of Ezekiel Elliott in the 2021 Fantasy Football rankings and draft cheat sheet for Yahoo, ESPN and CBS leagues.
Opportunity & Efficiency
From an efficiency perspective, Elliott’s performance also suffered in 2020. Elliott managed only 43 forced missed tackles and 688 yards after contact in 2020. Looking back to 2019, Elliott managed 972 yards after contact and 48 forced missed tackles. With the missed tackles remaining relatively constant, Elliott’s offensive line may again be a partial cause in his drop in yards after contact. However, concerns remain with Tony Pollard’s ascendance. Pollard averaged 4.51 yards after contact per attempt to Elliott’s 2.82.
From an opportunity perspective, Elliott began to cede more and more work to Pollard throughout the season as well. Elliott played on 72.4% of the Cowboy’s snaps last year while handling 72.6% of the carries. As a pass catcher Elliott received only 63.1% of the Cowboy’s running back targets and 12.2% of the targets overall. Back in 2019, Elliott handled 83.6% of snaps, 77.8% of running back carries and 78% of running back targets. In the red zone Elliott had 70.3% of work in 2020 compared to 77.6% in 2019. Still, Elliott’s raw 45 red zone carries ranked seventh in football last year. Scoring just six touchdowns on the ground, Elliott is a positive regression candidate in this area.Â
2021 Fantasy Football Expectations
Dallas’ coaching staff remains intact in 2021. Kellen Moore enters his third season as offensive coordinator, and the Cowboys showed explosive potential with a healthy Prescott under center. The Cowboys eclipsed 30 points in four of five games with Prescott last season, making them easy bounce-back candidates after ranking 17th in points per game (24.7). They also retain all of their major skill position players, including Amari Cooper, Ceedee Lamb and Michael Gallup on top of their backfield.Â
This continuity extends to the offensive line, which returns to full health. Tyron Smith, La’El Collins and Zack Martin all missed multiple games last year, making this another unit of strength for Dallas. The Cowboys did lose depth pieces in Joe Looney and Cameron Erving, but they also signed Ty Nsekhe as a depth piece. The offensive line likely played a role in Elliott’s reduced efficiency last year. However, the real concern for Elliott is Pollard’s emergence. After displaying increased efficiency, Pollard may carve out a larger role for himself in 2021 at Elliott’s expense.Â
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Elliott has a workload ceiling on par with Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry. While Pollard’s emergence creates additional risk, a healthy Prescott and offensive line somewhat mitigate those concerns. The Cowboys have a win total of 9.5 games and the best odds to win the NFC East. In best ball drafts on Underdog Fantasy, Elliott has an ADP of 6.8, behind only Christian Mccaffrey, Cook, Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley and Henry. With Barkley also facing a potential reduced role because of injury, Elliott may in fact present the safer pick at fifth overall. For those looking for an even safer approach, taking an elite receiver or Travis Kelce is a possibility here as well.
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