Sunday, June 19, kicks off the Father’s Day action with a featured slate at 1:35 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (6/19)
Top Stack: Milwaukee Brewers at LHP Mike Minor — 5.1 implied runs
The DraftKings salary algorithm appears to have missed the memo that Milwaukee is facing the pitcher formerly known as Mike Minor on Sunday, but the Stokastic Top Stacks Tool is not fooled one bit. Other than Christian Yelich ($4,700) and Willy Adames ($5,300), every other projected batter in the Brew Crew lineup is $3,700 or less.
Today will be the fourth start of the season for Minor, who missed the first two months of the season with a shoulder issue. Across five rehabilitation starts in the minor leagues, the 34-year-old veteran struggled with a 6.11 ERA across 17.2 innings. Though each of his three starts in The Show have been incrementally better than the last, he still has allowed half a dozen home runs in his 14.2 innings.
Andrew McCutchen and Hunter Renfroe each have a long history of success against southpaws and they should be in the heart of the order this afternoon. Luis Urias and Tyrone Taylor can be use for differentiation, but the crown jewel of stacks should absolutely be Adames.
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Late Slate: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RHP Chris Archer — 4.5 implied runs
The Diamondbacks are a whole lotta meh on offense, though this is a good matchup against Chris Archer. Though he was an All-Star in 2015 and 2017, while also leading the league each year with 34 starts, injuries derailed what was a promising career trajectory. Across his last 293 batters faced, Archer has a below-average 19.8% strikeout rate with an inflated 10.6% walk rate. If he can keep the bases clean, he should be able to survive for a few innings, but he is a major risk to spontaneously combust on the mound if Arizona sees any sort of favorable hit sequencing this afternoon.
Focus on the power bats first with Dalton Varsho, Christian Walker and David Peralta in the top half of the order. Switch-hitter Ketel Marte and lefty Pavin Smith can be used to round out full-stacks.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers Today
Top Target: RHP Corey Kluber at Baltimore Orioles — 3.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,100 | FanDuel $9,100
Though Corey Kluber is nowhere near his two-time Cy Young Award-winning form, he still has been solid this season after injuries limited him to just 24 appearances and 116.2 innings from 2019 through last year. The strikeouts are down from his apex seasons, though he has been efficient this year and has closed out the sixth inning in half of his 12 starts. Baltimore is a league-average offense against right-handed hurlers, however, the offseason renovations at Camden Yards have turned its home park into a pitcher’s haven. It is on the cooler side today with temperatures in the low-70s with a stiff breeze blowing in from left field at up to 16 mph. Six innings, accompanied by a handful of strikeouts and a victory is very much in play for Kluber.
Secondary Target: RHP Dane Dunning at Detroit Tigers — 3.2 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,800 | FanDuel $8,600
It is a day ending in “y” and the Detroit offense is creating runs 34% less efficiently than league average when facing right-handed pitchers. Dane Dunning has been solid this season and he does have strikeout upside with nearly one per inning on the year. The Tigers have a paltry .098 ISO against right-handed hurlers this season and Dunning limits power, allowing just under one home run per nine innings. Aside from his offense backing him with only 2.8 runs per game over his last nine appearances, he is the perfect SP2 on DraftKings.
Late Slate Target: RHP Logan Gilbert vs. Los Angeles Angeles of Anaheim — 3.7 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,000 | FanDuel $10,200
Do not let the lofty salary and perceived difficult matchup scare you away from Logan Gilbert this afternoon. Currently Gilbert is seventh with a 2.22 ERA and his 1.06 WHIP is just inside the top 20 among qualified starters. The only knock against him is that his walks are up from last season, but his home runs are down dramatically, so it is a fair trade off. The Halos, of course, have two of the best players in baseball in Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani, however things drop off dramatically after Jared Walsh and Taylor Ward. Losing Anthony Rendon (wrist) for the season is a major blow and the Angels have the highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitchers. Only Luis Rengifo and Matt Duffy strike out at a below average rate. Enjoy!
Additional Opportunities
Dane Dunning has a nice matchup as detailed above, but we can also look to him in the MLB player props market. OddsShopper is a very helpful and free site that allows users to quickly look at wager opportunities across multiple sportsbooks. Currently, depending on your site of choice, Dunning has between a 4.5 and a 5.5 over/under on his strikeout prop. That is a big difference and while that gap is likely to close closer to first pitch as the different books adjust to the prevailing market, this is a perfect example of how OddsShopper can quickly provide users with an advantage.
Today, the Stokastic MLB Projections have him for 5.1, giving him a 63% probability of exceeding that milestone. While he has just five strikeouts in his last two starts, Dunning had eight consecutive outings with at least five strikeouts prior to his matchups against Cleveland and Houston.
Other Pitching Options
- RHP Zach Eflin at Washington Nationals (Early)
- RHP Chris Bassitt vs. Miami Marlins (Main)
- RHP Ian Anderson at Chicago Cubs (Main)
- RHP Sandy Alcantara at New York Mets (Main)
- RHP Brady Singer at Oakland Athletics (Late)
One-Off Hitters
- Dan Vogelbach vs. RHP Alex Cobb (Main)
- Joey Votto vs. RHP Adrian Houser (Main)
- Josh Donaldson at LHP Yusei Kikuchi (Main)
- Matt Olson at RHP Kyle Hendricks (Afternoon)
- Salvador Perez at LHP Jared Koenig (Late)
Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
Much like Saturday, the only potential precipitation is in Coors Field, though it is far enough out that the forecast will need to be monitored later this afternoon and heading into lock.
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