A gentle Monday six-game slate eases gamers into the MLB DFS week with a 6:40 ET start on both sites. Of course, since nothing can be easy, two of the games are facing fairly significant risks of rain, with the game in Cincinnati between the Diamondbacks and Reds seeming highly likely to be postponed. The uncertainty creates a bit of an ownership wrinkle around both that game and the contest in Cleveland between the Rangers and Guardians, which has a downstream impact on the rest of the slate in terms of popularity and leverage. The board features several talented pitchers but lacks a true lockdown ace-caliber starter. The two rainy games are carrying hefty run totals, losing the Cincinnati launching pad will change the offensive outlook of the slate, but this does appear to be a day on which Vegas is expecting a number of runs to be scored in all ballparks. The low mark comes between the Mets and Padres with just a 7.5 run total at the end of the night. The Mariners – Astros game checks in at an eight-run mark while every other game is at nine or higher, there should be quality stacks at low ownership marks in all corners, while pitching combinations may be more difficult to come by on this slate. Embracing the chaotic nature of the options on the mound and hunting for a handful of points from the SP2 spot for a cheap price at low ownership is the preferred approach to the DraftKings two-starter equation on this slate, landing on the correct value arm will open up an excellent broadside on the field if things go to plan.
Best MLB DFS Tournament Strategy & Picks Today
Top Home Run Ratings & Predictions
Using a model based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup we will give each team one of the top choices from their projected lineup. However, the pick included below will not always be the actual top-rated player, particularly when there is an obvious star who rates atop his team’s lineup each day. Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: Christian Walker — 10.38
Boston Red Sox: J.D. Martinez — 3.52
Cincinnati Reds: Joey Votto — 10.71
Cleveland Guardians: Oscar Gonzalez — 7.71
Houston Astros: Alex Bregman — 10.02
Kansas City Royals: Sal Perez — 13.92
Los Angeles Angels: Shohei Ohtani — 15.43
New York Mets: Pete Alonso — 12.71
San Diego Padres: Manny Machado — 10.03
Seattle Mariners: Jesse Winker — 9.66
Texas Rangers: Adolis Garcia — 5.72
Toronto Blue Jays: Matt Chapman — 7.93
Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
MLB DFS Weather Update: Postponements & Risk Assessment
The weather is presenting a clear and present danger to all options from the Diamondbacks – Reds game in Cincinnati. The game in Cleveland between the Rangers and Guardians has a better chance of playing dry, but the weather radar for all of Ohio is not looking great this evening. Unless things change as lock approaches, it may be for the best to forego pitching options in Cincinnati, which may be a good idea in general, given the ballpark’s impact on offense. The bats in that game are on firmer ground, but keeping an eye on the news will be critical as lock approaches.
MLB DFS Picks Today: Pitchers, Best Stacks & Low-Owned Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Be sure to check out the Awesemo MLB DFS Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The weather will have a significant impact on today’s available pitching options. The highest-ranked names on the board are dueling one another, with Cristian Javier and Robbie Ray taking the mound for their respective teams in the Mariners – Astros game. Javier comes at a lower price and will be facing the weaker lineup, making him the stronger choice between the two extremely popular premium arms. The rest of the slate falls into the mid-range, though there are potential bright spots. If the game in Cincinnati does play dry, Hunter Greene looks like a strong option at an inexpensive price, but he is already popular and negatively leveraged, with the current projection likely to increase if the forecast improves. Blake Snell will likely be on a short leash in a tough spot against the Mets, but he has a 30% strikeout upside on any given slate, which the field is noticing in rostering him in half of all DraftKings lineups. The opposing pitcher, New York’s Carlos Carrasco looks like a better MLB DFS tournament play ta the night’s highest leverage score. The board also includes inexpensive Jon Gray, who will take on the difficult low-strikeout Guardians lineup if that game plays. Gray is probably not popular enough, given his extreme discount pricing on the two-pitcher site. The remaining options including Noah Syndergaard, Ross Stripling and Michael Wacha could provide price and popularity pivots, particularly if precipitation shortens the slate from its current six-game form.
The game between the Mariners and Astros is going to be a major inflection point for this slate. Cristian Javier and Robbie Ray are easily the two of the three best starters on the board in terms of proven track record, but they both come with flaws in allowing opportunities to opposing offenses. Ray has a career walk rate over 10% and he has trended back toward that level after a sterling 6.9% career-low mark in his excellent 2021 season. Ray has put too many runners on base while his strikeout rate has dipped to just 27.1%, a still-good mark but not nearly the 32.1% he posted last year. The Mariners southpaw has always yielded premium contact, he had a 4.27% home run rate on a 42.9% hard-hit percentage and a 9.8% barrel rate in his excellent season last year and he has allowed a 4.03% home run rate on a 40.5% hard-hit rate this year. The lefty will be facing an excellent Astros lineup that has a .163 ISO and a 3.19% home run rate that both rank 11th in the split against lefties. Houston’s active roster has struck out at just a 17.8% rate in the split this season, the fourth-lowest rate in baseball, and they have created runs 4% better than average, giving Ray a significant amount of work to do to reach an MLB DFS ceiling score. The Mariners, meanwhile, have also been very good at limiting strikeouts, posting a 20.3% rate that ranks seventh against righties. The Seattle active roster has created runs 16% better than average in the split, but they have lacked power, checking in at just a .143 ISO and a 2.59% home run rate, the 22nd and 23rd-ranked marks in the split. Cristian Javier should be able to exploit them for additional strikeouts, while the lack of power potential plays in his favor. Javier has a 31.5% strikeout rate over 41 innings this season, he posted a 30.7% mark in 101.1 innings over nine starts and bulk relief work last year, the rates are real and sustainable for this pitcher. He had a 12.5% walk rate last year, but he has reined it in slightly at a 9.1% mark this season. Javier has a 3.70 xFIP while inducing a 12.9% swinging-strike rate and he has allowed just a 1.82% home run rate this season. At a lower price point and comparable or lower ownership from site to site, the Astros righty looks like the better selection in a head-to-head matchup, but both pitchers in this game are viable MLB DFS options tonight.
Check out Ben Rasa’s Best Bet of the Day. Ben’s favorite betting pick today comes from the Astros vs. Mariners game. Check out even more MLB betting picks today over at our OddsShopper YouTube Channel.
Padres southpaw Blake Snell is another major swing-point for the MLB DFS slate tonight, he is attracting nearly 50% popularity on DraftKings for an $8,100 price tag and he has 35.7% of the field’s attention at $7,500 on the blue site. Snell is a talented but highly volatile starter who is on a short leash. The lefty has thrown 15 innings in three starts this season, he has a top-notch 30% strikeout rate in the small sample, but he has also walked 13.3% of opposing hitters while yielding a massive 14.7% barrel rate. Snell has avoided major trouble, he has a 4.80 ERA and a 4.25 xFIP with a 1.07 WHIP, the strikeouts tend to save him when he pitches into trouble, but the opposing Mets lineup may be able to overcome that talent. The active roster for the Mets has a .150 ISO and a 2.71% home run rate against lefties this season, the 17th and 16th ranked marks in the league. The team has a 22.1% strikeout rate in the split that lands in the middle of the league at 15th, and they have created runs 11% better than average, they are decidedly in the middle of the board in all categories against lefties this season. With so much of the field including Snell, it makes sense to approach the southpaw with caution, shaving shares off of the public total for allocation to positively leveraged options from above and below him on the price board on both sites. The southpaw has a strong chance of posting a slate-leading score, but he is by far the most negatively leveraged pitcher on both DraftKings and FanDuel, making any other choice on the mound on either site is an easy way to sidestep about half of the public.
Two weather-threatened starters are on the board if their games play in full. Cincinnati rookie Hunter Greene has a 29.1% strikeout rate over his first 48 innings in 10 starts this season while pitching to a 4.03 xFIP, but he has allowed a massive 6.82% home run rate and he has a 6.19 ERA so far this season. The home runs come on a 41.2% hard-hit percentage with a 12.2% barrel rate, Greene has sturdy upside, but the Diamondbacks have been very good against righties this season, Arizona’s active roster shockingly leads baseball with a .197 ISO and a 3.85% home run rate in the split against righties so far in 2022. Greene is likely to get rained out, if the game plays and delays he will probably not return to the mound, and he is not in a great matchup, but Arizona’s 24.6% strikeout rate in the split is targetable with the young righty’s very real strikeout acumen, which is the notion that 14% of the FanDuel field and 28% of the DraftKings public will be clinging to if this game starts. Greene is a questionable play with the power upside against him, at a lower price on DraftKings and a much lower popularity mark on FanDuel, Rangers starter Jon Gray may be a more interesting option. Gray is pitching in a game that is somewhat more likely to play, and he comes in at a very low price of just $6,600 on DraftKings while pulling only a 17% ownership projection. At just 2.8% popularity for an $8,100 price on FanDuel, the righty with a 26% strikeout rate looks like an interesting tournament play. Gray has pitched to a 3.52 xFIP with a 4.83 ERA and he has induced an 11% swinging-strike rate this year. The righty is facing a Guardians lineup that has been lethal in the split however, Cleveland strikes out at a league-best 15.5% against righties, the lowest mark for strikeouts against either hand among 30 teams. The Guardians have created runs 16% better than average with a .165 ISO and a 2.60% home run rate this season. Gray is not safe, but the price and talent are right at low ownership if the weather holds.
Mets starter Carlos Carrasco leads the leverage category on the DraftKings slate and he ranks second by his probability of success on FanDuel, while also coming in at positive leverage. Carrasco has pitched to a 21.4% strikeout rate overall this season while walking 5.5% and inducing a sharp 12.9% swinging-strike rate. The righty has allowed just a 1.26% home run rate while posting a 3.57 xFIP and a 3.63 ERA to this point in the season and holding opponents to a 36.5% hard-hit percentage with a 5.3% barrel rate. The opposing Padres have not been a good team for most of the season. San Diego’s active roster has a .125 collective ISO that ranks 27th against righties and the team’s 1.74% home run rate is next-to-last on the board at 29th. Their 18th-ranked 22.5% strikeout rate in the split is well below average and the team has created runs 7% behind the curve against righties, the 23rd-ranked WRC+ in the split. Carrasco has sneaky upside for MLB DFS scoring on this slate, he comes in at a fair midrange price and low ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel and should be in more lineups.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays land at the top of the board by both their probability of being the top-scoring stack of the night and by Awesemo’s new Stack Score metric on the Top Stacks Tool. Toronto will be popular, they come in at negative leverage but there are opportunities to offset popularity throughout the lineup, and the team is in a fantastic spot against lefty Daniel Lynch. The southpaw is a highly regarded young arm, but he has just a 19.6% strikeout rate in his 43 innings this season and he posted a 17.7% mark in 68 innings at the major league level last year. Lynch has yielded a 43.8% hard-hit percentage and an 8% barrel rate on an 18-degree average launch angle, but he has kept home runs to just 2.51% to this point in the season. The lefty has a 4.81 ERA and a 4.96 xFIP this season, he is targetable with Toronto bats, they have created runs 21% better than average while striking out just 18.9% of the time against lefties this season. The top four hitters in the Blue Jays’ projected lineup will all be owned between 25 and 30% on both sites, they are crushingly popular despite hefty price tags. George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Teoscar Hernandez are devastatingly good as a foursome, but they will be extremely popular and difficult to roster in unique combinations. Fortunately, further down the lineup there are low-owned upside options, including Alejandro Kirk, Matt Chapman and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., as well as Santiago Espinal and scuffling Bradley Zimmer. Kirk has hit five home runs while slashing .307/.389/.471 and creating runs 47% better than average over 162 plate appearances, Chapman has hit seven home runs but if struggling with his triple-slash despite a 51.6% hard-hit rate and a 10.9% barrel mark, and Espinal has been 19% better than average creating runs with a low price and positional flexibility. There are good options for stacking Blue Jays in differentiated combinations, if Danny Jansen is in the lineup he would add another premium bat and the option to include a two-catcher configuration on the FanDuel slate.
New York Mets
With overwhelming popularity on the opposing pitcher, the Mets are going largely unowned across the MLB DFS industry. The New York active roster is effectively in the middle of the league in all categories against lefties and they have excellent righty bats like Peter Alonso to buoy the upside of a full stack. Every hitter on the team is projected for less than 3% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight, the field is dramatically favoring the lefty on the mound for San Diego while almost entirely foregoing Mets bats, giving them a strong leverage angle into tournaments on both sites. In addition to Alonso’s home run upside, excellent leadoff man Brandon Nimmo should provide correlated scoring ahead of Starling Marte and Francisco Lindor atop the lineup. From the bottom-half J.D. Davis, Mark Canha and Eduardo Escobar make for interesting run-creation selections from the right side of the plate. The bottom-end of the batting order offers overperforming Luis Guillorme and low-end catcher Tomas Nido, between the two Guillorme is the better choice, he is slashing .340/.434/.423 with a WRC+ sitting 54% better than average over his 115 plate appearances this season. The Mets can be stacked in a variety of sturdy configurations in a direct attack on the massive ownership that Snell is seeing from site to site tonight.
Houston Astros
The Astros land in a positively leveraged low-owned situation on both sites in their matchup against Robbie Ray. The Dr. Jekyll version of the Seattle lefty has excellent strikeout stuff and the potential to shut any lineup in the league down entirely, but the Mr. Hyde version of Ray can yield far too many free passes and opportunities to opposing offenses while both the good and evil Ray pitch to premium contact and inflated power marks. Houston’s active roster has been better against righties this season, but only one of their left-handed hitters truly struggles in splits and the team sports excellent right-handed bats to throw at a fairly popular pitcher who seems likely to see his ownership grow if other games are postponed.
At 12% DraftKings popularity and an 18% mark on the blue site, leadoff second baseman Jose Altuve is the most popular Astros hitter by a wide margin on both sites. Altuve is slashing .270/.347/.513 with a .243 ISO while creating runs 53% better than average in 2022. The righty hitter is striking out at just a 14.7% clip while walking in 9.4% of his plate appearances this season, starting a run through essentially the entire lineup that sees very low strikeout rates and walk numbers that could prove problematic for the volatile pitcher. Altuve should be included in Astros stacks, but do so with an eye on his public popularity and overall exposure across 150 lineups.
Lefty outfielder Michael Brantley is slashing .268/.349/.357 with a .089 ISO while creating runs 14% better than average against same-handed pitching this season, but he is better across the board against the opposite hand. For his career, Brantley slashes .269/.325/.367 in the split but he has created runs 9% worse than average and he remains the one regular lefty who scuffles against fellow southpaws. Brantley will probably be in the lineup and he should be deployed in stacks, but expectations should be tempered going into action tonight.
Alex Bregman is slashing .221/.336/.387 over 217 plate appearances, an uncharacteristically low triple-slash for the veteran third baseman who has been an All-Star caliber player for much of his career. Bregman has just a .166 ISO and six home runs this season, but he has created runs 17% better than average while striking out just 13.8% of the time with a matching walk rate. Bregman is priced at just $4,900 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel and he will be at mid-single-digit ownership on both sites, he belongs in more lineups on track record alone.
Newly extended outfield star Yordan Alvarez is a bargain for the Astros, for MLB DFS gamers he comes at a fair $5,700 on DraftKings and $4,200 on FanDuel. Alvarez has a gargantuan 65.2% hard-hit percentage and a 19.1% barrel rate this year, premium contact that he has turned into 16 home runs and a whopping .329 ISO. Alvarez is a lefty masher who destroys baseballs with regularity, but he is not a free-swinging all-or-nothing player, he strikes out just 16.3% of the time while walking at a 12.9% rate, Alvarez is far closer to Nationals’ star Juan Soto than he is to a Joey Gallo type of power hitter. At just 2.8% popularity on DraftKings and 5.3% across town, he should be mashed into lineups with enthusiasm. Alvarez is slashing .247/.371/.404 with a .158 ISO and a 20% strikeout rate against lefties this season, but he has created runs 34% better than average in the split and he has been better over a larger sample. In 435 career plate appearances against same-handed pitching, Alvarez has hit 25 home runs, a 5.7% home run rate, and he has created runs 50% better than average while slashing .286/.366/.554 with a .268 ISO, there is nothing to be worried about here when it comes to same-handed matchups.
Yuli Gurriel has scuffled mightily this season. The first baseman costs just $2,900 on DraftKings and $2,800 on FanDuel and he is projected for less than 5% popularity industrywide. Gurriel is slashing just .225/.268/.360 in 190 plate appearances this year, a season after winning a batting title and turning in a .319/.383/.462 triple slash while creating runs 34% better than average in 605 opportunities. Gurriel is more the hitter he was last season than he is the struggling bat this year, at worst he puts the ball in play with amazing regularity given just a 14.7% strikeout rate and a 4.7% walk percentage. There is scoring upside in an extremely unpopular and affordable hitter like this in the middle of the Astros lineup.
Lefty Kyle Tucker also does not struggle for same-handed quality. The outfielder is slashing just .247/.348/.453 so far this season, but he has hit nine home runs and has a .206 ISO while creating runs 36% better than average. For his career, Tucker has a .235 ISO and a 5.0% home run rate against same-handed pitching, but the field is leaving his excellent bat largely on the table. Tucker strikes out at just a 19.2% clip while walking 13.6% of the time, and he has a 38.3% hard-hit percentage with a 10.5% barrel rate, all very desirable traits in a bat that costs just $4,800 on DraftKings and $3,400 on FanDuel while landing below 5.5% projected ownership.
The Astros have filled their shortstop gap with ease this season, the team waved goodbye to veteran star Carlos Correa and welcomed newcomer Jeremy Pena to the squad without missing a beat. Pena is slashing .278/.330/.473 with eight home runs and a WRC+ that sits 35% better than average, he is a cheap low-owned option at shortstop on both sites tonight. The same is true of outfielder Jose Siri, who is projected to hit eighth for just $2,200 on the blue site and $2,800 across town. Siri and catcher Martin Maldonado end this lineup with two hitters who are above a 30% strikeout rate, but the young outfielder has been productive with two home runs and six stolen bases, flashing his toolsy upside for MLB DFS scoring. Siri is an extremely low-cost low-popularity pivot when building numerous Astros stacks.
Home Run Prediction Today: Yordan Alvarez — Houston Astros
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