Sunday, Sept. 11, all eyes will be on the NFL today, so that means the MLB contests are rather small. For the hardcore seam-heads, the fun begins with a 1:05 p.m. ET first pitch, so let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks with pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (9/11)
Main Slate: Milwaukee Brewers vs. RHP Justin Dunn — 5.2 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool likes Milwaukee again today, giving the Brew Crew high marks for a second consecutive slate. Justin Dunn has allowed nine home runs in his six appearances this season, which works out to 2.9 per nine innings. Unfortunately, for Cincinnati anyway, he is handing out a free pass every other inning and has managed only 20 strikeouts in his 28 frames.
Stacking the Brewers should begin with their hitters swinging the stick from the left side of the plate as Dunn has not been able to contain opposite-handed batsmen. Over his last 171 right-lefty matchups, he has allowed a .380 wOBA and a .246 ISO. That makes Rowdy Tellez, Kolton Wong and Christian Yelich the trio to target. They are unlikely to be adjacent in the batting order, so we can fill in the gaps with Hunter Renfroe and Willy Adames, who both have light-tower power against same-handed hurlers.
Secondary Stack: Houston Astros vs. LHP Tucker Davidson — 5.3 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Batters Tool is doing cartwheels over today’s matchup for Houston. Last Sunday, the Astros rolled up seven runs on Tucker Davidson, courtesy of four extra-base hits, including two round-trippers. Over 62.1 innings in The Show, spread across three seasons, Davidson has nearly as many walks (41) as strikeouts (45).
It would not be a surprise to see one of the regulars get today off, but that just means increased opportunity for their replacement. Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, former Oriole Trey Mancini and rookie Jeremy Pena are the right-handed hitters to target first. Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez excel against fellow lefties, and each boasts a .235-plus ISO over their last 400 same-handed plate appearances.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers
Primary Target: RHP Shane Bieber at Minnesota Twins — 3.4 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,300 | FanDuel $11,200
Minnesota has been gobsmacked by injuries, and now they are without Brandon Buxton and Jorge Polanco. While Max Kepler has returned, he will not be able to carry the offense, even with hot hitting Carlos Correa and the steady presence of leadoff man Luis Arraez.
Although Shane Bieber has allowed four home runs in his last two starts, those solo shots were the only runs he ceded and he suffered only one other long ball in his preceding seven starts. This year, The Biebs has been a top-15 pitcher with his 2.96 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 171 strikeouts. Though this is a lofty five-figure salary cap hit, there are plenty of value plays to facilitate locking in Bieber as the ace of the day.
Secondary Target: RHP Brandon Woodruff vs. Cincinnati Reds — 3.0 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $9,600 | FanDuel $10,200
Despite being frisky, with seven or more runs three times in the last week, Cincinnati is one of the worst offenses in the league. Their projected lineup has a 29.4% strikeout rate over the last two seasons when facing right-handed hurlers. Brandon Woodruff has been inconsistent with his strikeout production since the All-Star Break; however, over his last 1,200 batters faced, he has been elite with a 29.3% strikeout rate. Milwaukee is currently -290 favorites to win this game, and Woodruff should be in line for the victory as well as a quality start.
Additional Opportunities
Brady Singer gets a nice matchup with Detroit this afternoon, and he currently has a 5.5 over/under on his strikeout prop, which seems like a very achievable target, with the Stokastic projections forecasting 6.1 strikeouts and a 65% win probability. Though Singer had just one punchout on Monday against the Guardians, he has had six or more in eight of his prior 11 appearances. The Tigers have been epically bad against right-handed pitching, so this is a very favorable spot for Singer.
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Other Pitching Options
- RHP Aaron Nola vs. Washington Nationals (Main, risk of PPD)
- RHP Luis H. Garcia vs. Los Angeles Angels (Main)
- LHP Jose Quintana at Pittsburgh Pirates (Main SP2)
- RHP Taijuan Walker at Miami Marlines (Main SP2)
- LHP Andrew Heaney at San Diego Padres (Late)
Other Hitting Options
- Corey Dickerson at RHP Mitch Keller (Main)
- Jose Ramirez at RHP Josh Winder (Main)
- Hunter Dozier vs. LHP Tyler Alexander (Main)
- Eloy Jimenez at LHP Cole Irvin (Late)
- Austin Riley at LHP Marco Gonzales (Late)
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Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
There are a few weather situations to monitor on Sunday. There are storms in the Baltimore area this morning, though things should clear up this afternoon, so this game will play. New York and Philadelphia, however, are looking like they will have precipitation throughout the game window. The Phillies and Nationals both are off on Monday, so that gives those organizations options. This is not the case for the Yankees, who are off tomorrow as the Rays are heading up to Canada to take on the Blue Jays on Monday.
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