Saturday, June 25, kicks off a full day of baseball beginning with an eight-game early slate at 1:05 p.m. ET which is a precursor to a six-game featured slate with a first pitch of 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the top MLB DFS picks today for pitchers and stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy baseball lineups.
DraftKings & FanDuel MLB DFS Picks Today (6/25)
Early Slate: St. Louis Cardinals vs. RHP Adrian Sampson — 5.3 implied runs
It looks like The Masses will flock to the White Sox for their matchup against the dreadful Spenser Watkins. This makes the Cardinals a nice pivot as they will be playing in hot and humid conditions, which of course turns their home park into a hitters haven. Journeyman Adrian Sampson is getting the call as the sacrificial lamb for Saturday’s matchup.
The Cubs are the fourth MLB franchise for which Sampson has played and he also has spent parts of nine seasons in the minors and one year in the KBO pitching for the Lotte Giants. The 30-year-old has no strikeout upside and he allows a lot of home runs. Even better, he is rarely pitching from ahead in the count which improves the production of opposing hitters.
DraftKings has really boosted the salaries for Paul Goldschmidt ($6,000), Nolan Arenado ($5,500) and Tommy Edman ($5,300) which should keep their popularity in check. Youngsters Nolan Gorman, Brendan Donovan and Dylan Carlson can easily be feathered into full-stacks.
Afternoon Slate: Kansas City Royals vs. Oakland Athletics — 5.5 implied runs
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool is giving high marks to the Royals for their matchup with Jared Koenig. It’s going to be in the low-90s during this game with a strong 8 to 12 mph breeze blowing out to right-center. The 28-year-old southpaw has struggled in his debut season with a 6.59 ERA and 1.76 WHIP across 13.2 innings with only half a dozen strikeouts.
Koenig was selected in the 35th round of the 2014 MLB Draft out of high school, and though he ultimately was not signed by the White Sox, he spent the next couple years bouncing around with three different college teams. His nomadic journey continued with several stops playing in various independent leagues and ultimately spending 2019 in the Australian Baseball League which got him a contract with Oakland.
Unfortunately the pandemic curtailed the 2020 MiLB season, but Koenig spent 2021 with the Double-A Midland Rockhounds where he was the pitcher of the year in what is known as the Texas League. This year he joined Triple-A Las Vegas and was called up to The Show in early June. This is likely the last stop for Koenig and it will be a surprise to see him stick around beyond this season.
It’s a shame that Salvador Perez is on the injured list, otherwise he would be a prime home run option in this matchup. Instead we can look to the power potential of Hunter Dozier, Bobby Witt Jr. and Edward Olivares. Whit Merrifield is a strong option at the top of the order and depending on their slot in the batting order, Carlos Santana and Michael A. Taylor are cheap punts.
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Main Slate: Minnesota Twins vs. RHP Antonio Senzatela — 5.1 implied runs
Antonio Senzatela does a good job of limiting home runs, however, as a groundball pitcher he allows balls in play 82.2% of the time with only a 14.4% strikeout rate. The success of the Minnesota stack will depend on line drives and extra-base hits with runners on base. Fortunately the Twins best hitters are well suited to make this hope a reality. Byron Buxton, Max Kepler and Carlos Correa all have a discerning eye and solid gap power. Buxton of course can turn just about anything into a home run, but we will consider that icing on the cake. Luis Arraez leads the league with a .345 average and should be on base multiple times and is all but assured of crossing the plate.
Alex Kirillloff has been recalled from the minors where he was absolutely raking with a .359/.465/.641 triple slash line with 17 extra base hits, including 10 home runs, in only 131 at bats. Gary Sanchez is always a boom or bust play, but he does take care of the pesky catcher requirement on DraftKings and gamers still shy away from him on FanDuel, even though he hits like a first baseman.
Late Slate: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. RHP Alex Faedo — 4.8 implied runs
The Chase Field roof is closed for this homestand, which does give a boost to pitchers. However, rookie Alex Faedo is going to need more than that to have a productive start tonight. The 26-year-old was the 18th overall selection in the 2017 MLB Draft after spending three seasons with the University of Florida. The pandemic and a subsequent Tommy John surgery cost Faedo the 2020 and 2021 seasons. After 15.2 innings in the minors this season, he was called up to The Show.
Faedo was the 16th ranked prospect in the Tigers system this season and it would seem that his ceiling is that of an innings eater. Across four June outings he has struggled mightily with a 7.27 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP over 17.1 frames. Arizona is a top-heavy lineup, but they should be rolling out mostly lefties to gain the platoon-advantage on the Detroit hurler.
The Stokastic Top Batters Tool has highlighted Paul Dalton Varsho, Ketel Marte and David Peralta as the trio to target. Alek Thomas and Christian Walker can also be employed depending on positional need and salary cap considerations. Overall, the D’Backs are a viable secondary stack on the main slate and can be a featured stack to build around for the late night action.
Best MLB DFS Pitchers Today
Early Slate Target: RHP Gerrit Cole vs. Houston Astros — 3.4 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $10,400 | FanDuel $10,600
Aside from two dreadful starts, Gerrit Cole has been outstanding this season allowing three or fewer runs in his other 12 appearances. This matchup is not for the faint of heart, however, Cole does have slate-breaking upside. The conservative gamers can turn to Miles Mikolas or Corey Kluber, though neither has the upside of Cole, even in this fierce matchup.
Afternoon Slate Target: RHP Chris Bassitt at Miami Marlins — 3.6 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,800 | FanDuel $9,800
Clearly Chris Bassitt is the top option for the early slate, but with his mega-popularity, Cole makes for an intriguing pivot as detailed above. Marlins Park is pitcher friendly as long as the roof is closed and this is a nice boost for Bassitt over Citi Field. Miami has been decent against right-handed pitching, but they rely on positive hit sequencing as they lack any dominant bats aside from Jazz Chisholm.Â
Main Slate Target: RHP Logan Webb vs. Cincinnati Reds — 2.9 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $7,800 | FanDuel $9,600
Even though this is an afternoon start time in San Francisco, the temperature will barely crest over 60 degrees during this game. The DraftKings salary algorithm simply made a mistake with Logan Webb and he is slated to be on nearly half of all rosters tonight. Cincinnati has an anemic offense that is in the bottom three teams for most traditional and advanced metrics when facing right-handed pitchers. After a slow start, compared to last season, Webb seems to have remembered where he left his strikeouts and he is averaging a tick shy of one per inning over his last nine starts.
Late Slate Target: LHP Patrick Sandoval vs. Seattle Mariners — 4.3 implied runs
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,000 | FanDuel $9,500
Patrick Sandoval has improved on last season’s breakout campaign. Though his walks are a little higher and strikeouts a little lower, the overall results have been excellent. Seattle has been in the middle of the pack against southpaws this season, but the back half of their lineup is barely replacement level and two of their three best hitters are swinging the stick from the left-side of the plate which favors Sandoval.
Additional Opportunities
Shane Bieber has been getting by with some extra luck and in today’s daunting matchup with the Red Sox, this makes him someone worth monitoring in the MLB player props market. Currently, he has a 7.5 over/under on his strikeout prop and the Stokastic MLB Projections have him for 6.3, giving him a 70% probability of failing to surpass that milestone. Bieber’s fastball is down to 90.8 mph this season which is two ticks below last year and well below his 94.2 mph from his Cy Young season. Boston is only striking out 20.6% of the time this season against right-handed pitching and it won’t take much for Bieber to stay under eight strikeouts.
Other Pitching Options
- RHP Corey Kluber vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Early)
- RHP Corbin Burnes vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Afternoon)
- RHP Josiah Gray at Texas Rangers (Afternoon)
- LHP Max Fried vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Main)
- RHP Logan Gilbert at Los Angeles Angels (Late)
One-Off Hitters
- Chicago White Sox vs. RHP Spenser Watkins (Early)
- Pete Alonso at LHP Trevor Rogers (Afternoon)
- Wilmer Flores vs. LHP Mike Minor (Main)
- Austin Riley vs. RHP Mike White (Main)
- Rhys Hoskins at LHP Blake Snell (Late)
Final MLB DFS Thoughts & MLB Weather Notes
There are a couple spots in the Midwest to monitor today. Chicago has rain throughout the afternoon, but looks to clear later tonight. Kansas City and St. Louis are both hot and humid, which could lead to brief periods of rain, though neither game is a postponement risk.
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