MLB DFS Picks, Ownership, HRs & Top Stacks for DraftKings + FanDuel

The Sunday MLB DFS slate is dropping into already-chaotic fantasy sports afternoons with a 10-game main slate starting up at 1:05 p.m. ET. The slate is looking ripe for explosive production from the bats, many of the starters are third and fourth options on their teams and the weather is warming across the country. Numbers are steadily climbing in the power index, and some of the Vegas game totals are up, we could have a solid bonanza of MLB DFS scoring today. Getting to the right pitching will be a tougher trick to turn, there are a few middling options in strong spots and a few very good pitchers with tough matchups on the board. Getting through all of it while keeping an eye on the chaos in other sports today is going to be a fun juggle throughout the morning.

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Tracking the top MLB DFS pitchers will be key, as will monitoring the public ownership distributions on stacks via the Top Stacks Tool. Let’s get into the MLB DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel, as well as some home run candidates for each team.

MLB DFS Tournament Strategy: Top HR Options

Home Run Ratings

Home runs are the holy grail when making MLB DFS picks. Finding the right combination of sluggers who will knock one, or better two, out of the park to drive in the teammates you stack with them is critical to winning GPPs. Identifying the likely home run hitters is trickier than just looking at the big names. Using a model of my own design, based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup, I will give one of the top choices from each team. However, it won’t always be the absolute top-ranked player, particularly when there is an obvious star who would be in that spot every day.

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Note: Today’s home run picks include the 4pm slate of games but the power index below does not.

Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great

Atlanta Braves: Marcell Ozuna — 4.75

Baltimore Orioles: Trey Mancini — 8.79

Boston Red Sox: Michael Chavis — 6.18

Chicago Cubs: Javier Baez — 14.50

Chicago White Sox: Yoan Moncada — 6.25

Detroit Tigers: Miguel Cabrera — 6.41

Houston Astros: Alex Bregman — 10.77

Kansas City Royals: Carlos Santana — 10.74

Los Angeles Angels: Anthony Rendon — 9.43

Milwaukee Brewers: Avisail Garcia — 3.67

Minnesota Twins: Josh Donaldson — 6.62

New York Mets: Michael Conforto — 10.74

New York Yankees: Luke Voit — 13.20

Oakland Athletics: Matt Chapman — 9.77

Philadelphia Phillies: Andrew McCutchen — 13.43

Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds — 5.07

San Francisco Giants: Brandon Belt — 9.05

Tampa Bay Rays: Brandon Lowe — 10.81

Texas Rangers: Joey Gallo — 7.51

Toronto Blue Jays: Marcus Semien — 15.31

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Power Index

This is intended to capture the full range of home runs-upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup (pitcher bats not included in non-DH games), and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.

MLB DFS Pitchers, Optimal Stacks & Leverage Plays

This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel. Make sure to check out the ownership projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.

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On the Hill

The Sunday MLB DFS afternoon slate has a few interesting spots for pitching, with many starters coming from the middle or back-end of their rotations. The board is slim on true aces, but potential standouts include Lance McCullers Jr. who is taking on the strikeout heavy Rangers, Freddy Peralta against the lethal Braves offense, Dylan Cease who looks to continue his emergence against the Royals, Kenta Maeda as he continues to try to fully find his excellent form in a matchup with the Athletics, as well as a number of others from the mid-range.

McCullers stands at the top of my personal pitching model and he ranks second on the Top Starters tool behind Peralta, who appears to be in a tougher matchup. McCullers is taking on a Texas team that is third-worst in baseball with a 27.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The Rangers have created runs three percent better than average in the split, but have been hitting for only league average power at a .154 collective ISO in the split. McCullers has made seven starts this season, pitching 40 innings and putting up a solid 28.5% strikeout rate, though he has walked too many hitters at 12.1%. Despite the free passes, McCullers has been sharp, posting a 3.63 xFIP and a 1.06 WHIP for the season. This is a good pitcher with heavy strikeout upside in an excellent spot and he costs just $8,400 on the FanDuel slate. He is very much in play at $9,600 as an SP1 on the DraftKings slate as well.

Peralta has been absolutely incredible this season, putting up a dominant 39.4% strikeout rate over his first 39 innings in seven starts. He costs $9,000 on FanDuel and $9,200 on DraftKings in his matchup against the Braves. Atlanta is currently 12th in baseball with a 23.2% strikeout rate against righties. The Braves have produced significant power in the split, a trend that continues from our longer sample that dates to the start of 2019. This season, Atlanta has a .192 team ISO that is best in baseball against righties and they stand second in the league with 44 home runs in the split. The ownership will be similar on both Peralta and McCullers, but this is a significantly more difficult matchup for the Brewers starter than what McCullers is facing.

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White Sox righty Dylan Cease is finally starting to put it all together and deliver on the promise of his filthy stuff. Cease has been someone we have monitored in this space since last year — longer in a general fantasy baseball sense — and he is rewarding our patience with a stellar 31.8% strikeout rate over his first 35 innings in seven starts this year. Cease has cut his walk rate to 11.5%, which still needs some work but is indicative of growth. He has a strong 3.62 xFIP and a 1.25 WHIP this season, he still puts too many on base and is inefficient with his pitches, but there is major talent and upside. The opposing Royals are 13th in baseball with a 23.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, and they come in at a league average .158 team ISO while creating runs three percent below average. This is not an easy spot for Cease, nor is it a low-risk situation, but the $7,400 price on both sites has not caught up to the potential breakout just yet, and the public appears behind the curve as well, leaving positive leverage on him on both sites.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are standing out for power on today’s board, behind the two teams playing on a Little League field in Florida anyway. Chicago has a solid top to bottom lineup as they return to full health. They are very expensive on the DraftKings slate, but with low priced pitching options in quality spots, there are ways to afford the full stack. On FanDuel, the top end of the lineup is pricey but the numbers drop very quickly as we travel down the lineup, making it very easy to get to four-man Cubs stacks.

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Catcher Willson Contreras is in the leadoff spot again today. He is one of the better hitting catchers in the game and he makes for a pricey but excellent option in this spot where we have to roster the position. Even on FanDuel, Contreras is very much in play given the spot in the batting order, the upside and the $3,400 price tag. Contreras has hit seven home runs in 134 plate appearances already this season, carrying a .246/.343/.447 slash with a .202 ISO. He hit seven long balls in 225 plate appearances last year and 24 in 409 tries in 2019, so he is somewhat ahead of pace. This is a terrific option at the top of the lineup.

Star Kris Bryant is an outfielder on DraftKings and a third baseman on FanDuel, regardless of where you play him, you should play him today. Bryant is expensive on both sites, but he brings significant upside and has been raking to start 2021, reminding the baseball world of just how good he is. Bryant is at .315/.409/.661 over his first 149 plate appearances. He has hit 10 home runs this season, putting up a massive .346 ISO and creating runs 84% better than average.

Lefty first baseman Anthony Rizzo has not had that same strong start to his 2021 campaign, but there is always upside in his bat and he is priced down for the minor slump. Rizzo stands at just .238/.361/.438 with five home runs and a .200 ISO over his first 158 plate appearances. He does have a WRC+ 20% above average despite the lack of hitting, his solid on-base percentage helps with continued run creation, meaning Rizzo can contribute for MLB DFS purposes even when he’s not going deep.

Javier Baez is hitting cleanup today and he brings a $5,500 DraftKings price tag and a $4,200 mark on FanDuel to the discussion. He is one of the best offensive options in the game at his position when he is going right. Lately, Baez has been somewhat in the mid-ground. He has a .254/.295/.500 slash to start the season, clearly not getting on base frequently enough, but still driving the ball. He has a .246 ISO and eight home runs so far and he is creating runs 12% better than average. With plenty of additional upside in the bat, it makes sense to roster Baez even if we have to pay a significant price to do so.

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Matt Duffy has been more featured than expected early in the season for the Cubs. He is hitting fifth in the lineup today and creates a slight dip in the heart of the lineup. Duffy is not untalented, he has a .282/.367/.372 slash to start the year, but the lack of power is concerning at a .090 ISO with just one home run. Duffy is priced for the lack of production on the blue site, where he lands at just $2,200. For $4,100 on DraftKings, he is overpriced and difficult to roster. The lineup spot justifies inclusion more than the bat does.

David Bote is perhaps more interesting than Duffy, despite hitting a spot lower in the lineup. Bote has some power upside, though a weak hit tool. In 117 plate appearances this season, he has a .183/.259/.279 slash with two home runs and a .096 ISO, but he did hit seven home runs and post a .208 ISO in 145 plate appearances last year. Bote is not one of the more popular selection and he costs the minimum price on the FanDuel slate, making him at worst clickable in those contests. At $4,300 on DraftKings, he is another challenging ask.

Joc Pederson, on the other hand, is a player we can roster in this matchup, despite it coming as a lefty vs lefty, a situation in which he has struggled historically. Pederson has titanic power but only on the other side of splits, he has a .258 ISO for his career against right-handed pitching and just a .111 against fellow southpaws. Still, if we’re expecting this stack to connect and chase starter Matthew Boyd early, there is upside for Pederson to see a couple of plate appearances against weak righties out of the Detroit bullpen. We’re building two plate appearances with zeroes into our lineup with this selection, so it is highly risky and a GPP play only, but Pederson is potentially sneaky.

Nico Hoerner is hitting .350/.458/.500 to start the year, though he has only made 48 plate appearances. He has a relatively reliable hit tool and was projected to be a solid contact hitter after being drafted in the first round, but the production has been slow arriving and he was never a significant power option, making him a question mark for MLB DFS. Hoerner is a mix-in option from late in the lineup, but it is difficult to roster him at hefty salaries.

Ian Happ is an excellent option from the last spot of the lineup. Happ just returned from injury and if far too cheap for his talent at $2,800 on FanDuel and $3,400 on DraftKings. He was struggling mightily before the brief layoff, hitting just .157/.292/.236 over his first 107 plate appearances, but there is upside for days in this bat. Happ hit 12 home runs in 231 plate appearances in 2020, putting up a .247 ISO along the way. He had a .258/.361/.505 slash and created runs 31% better than average. Happ has the pop to produce by himself, but he also makes a strong wraparound option with his on-base skills.

HR Call: Teoscar Hernandez — Toronto Blue Jays

To get even more action down on tonight’s MLB slate, check out the betting markets and Awesemo’s expert MLB betting locks for today.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.