The following FREE MLB DFS picks for fantasy baseball lineups are based on Awesemo’s MLB Projections for today’s MLB DFS fantasy baseball slate on DraftKings. For more free DraftKings MLB picks and analysis for DFS baseball lineups, check out the Awesemo.com YouTube Channel for today’s MLB Strategy Show, Deeper Dive and Live Before Lock Shows. Picks in green are for cash or GPP-style contests.
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Top MLB DFS Value Plays
Patrick Corbin – Nationals @ Orioles – FanDuel $, DraftKings $10,500
We’re only focusing on the main slate here, so we don’t get to choose from any of the aces starting earlier in the day. If you are looking to play the early slate, Shane Bieber and Max Fried look to stand above the field. On the main slate, Patrick Corbin is our most expensive option and rightfully so. He’s been consistent to start the season in three starts with 18 innings, 20 strikeouts, and five earned runs allowed. He’s faced the Mets twice and Yankees once, so this will be the best matchup yet for Corbin.
The Orioles strikeout 25% of the time against left-handed pitching and have been hitting way over their heads to start the season. Corbin sported a 10.60 K/9 in 2019 and backed it up with a 3.59 xFIP. He flew under the radar as one of the top aces in baseball and has started this season on a solid foot. The price isn’t crazy on either site and there isn’t much to love at starting pitcher in general tonight. Corbin has the highest ceiling on the slate and the strikeouts offer a guaranteed floor. On DraftKings, where you have to roster two SP’s, it’ll be tough to stay away from Corbin in this elite matchup.
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: A, D
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: B, D
Christian Javier – Astros vs. Mariners – FanDuel $, DraftKings $10,100
Javier is expected to be the highest-owned pitcher on both sites, as Awesemo projects 40%+ ownership on DraftKings and 35% on FanDuel. Javier has been great to start the season, eclipsing 30 FanDuel points in two of his last three starts. He now draws a matchup against the Mariners, who are implied to score just 3.70 runs tonight as +210 underdogs. The Astros have shown a ton of confidence in Javier, leaving him in there when things get tough deeper into his outing.
There’s always going to be a risk with a 23-year-old, but Javier has only walked 2.30 batters per nine while striking out 9.19. We’re not going to see 100 pitches out of the youngster, but I fully expect somewhere between 80 and 95. The Mariner strikeout 26% of the time and don’t offer much in terms of an ability to string together hits. This is a perfect combination of a depressed price tag and an elite matchup. The price is low on both sites and Javier is a solid play in all formats. You can deploy him across the board.
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: B, B
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: B, A
James Paxton – Yankees vs. Red Sox – FanDuel $8,100, DraftKings $
Paxton is actually projected to be more popular than Patrick Corbin, which speaks a lot to just how low Paxton is priced on FanDuel. We saw vintage Paxton last time out with 11 strikeouts against the Rays and he now draws the Red Sox, who have looked like a shell of what we expected. They have to play at least four lefties and a strikeout per inning will be a gimme for Paxton. With that being said, this is a guy who seems to control his own fate, no matter the matchup. He’s in turn always risky, but can also break the slate if on his game. I’ll be over the field with about 25% on both sites.
While it’s tough to play a lefty against a lineup with J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts in the heart of it, this Red Sox squad hasn’t shown an ability to beat up lefties like they should. They’ve struck out a monstrous 26% of the time and are worse on the road. If Paxton can command his fastball, expect another solid performance for cheap. Don’t be left behind here.
Awesemo FanDuel Grade: C, B
Awesemo DraftKings Grade: C, C
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