NBA Player Props: Fade Jalen Williams Tonight (March 31)

With the NBA playoffs approaching at a rapid rate, NBA player prop bettors don’t have much time left to capitalize on teams that won’t make it. And with so much meaningful basketball on the line as well, NBA player prop bettors may find it hard to break down each game on the card this time of year, and even the sharpest bettors can let the best NBA player props slip through their fingers. The below Jalen Williams player prop stands out as especially easy to miss.

Enter Stokastic’s new NBA Bet Pro. Instead of manually sifting through each game to find value, bettors can now sort every prop market by expected ROI. NBA Bet Pro pulls lines from every major sportsbook to help you find the best deal available for that given play. If you’re not convinced, see how much money you make after a one-week free trial of the product.

Stokastic’s NBA Bet Pro model is all over these three NBA player props for Friday.

Today’s Top NBA Player Props | March 31

Jalen Williams Prop O/U 29.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (PRA)

The Oklahoma City Thunder can still make the play-in tournament, but that doesn’t mean it’s always smart to back their players. With Shai Gilgeous-Alexander possibly returning tonight, Jalen Williams could take a sizeable step back for the Thunder.

NBA Bet Pro projects Williams for only 25.8 PRA tonight, far below the number available at FanDuel. Although Williams has done plenty of damage lately, he is averaging only 21.9 PRA per game this year. If Gilgeous-Alexander returns, expect him to slide back toward his season average. Bettors can find plenty of other mispriced props by subscribing to NBA Bet Pro!

Best NBA Player Prop: Jalen Williams Under 29.5 PRA (-113) at FanDuel

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Domantas Sabonis Prop O/U 5.5 Assists

The Sacramento Kings can chase down the Memphis Grizzlies for the third seed in the Western Conference. However, center Domantas Sabonis may need to step up for them to do so. Sabonis is averaging 7.2 assists per game on the year and 8.1 since the All-Star Break, but the books have set his assist prop total to only 5.5.

Sabonis hasn’t dished out many assists against the Trail Blazers this year, and he could see his minutes limited because of a blowout. However, Sabonis is projected for 6.9 assists tonight, giving the over an expected win rate of 64% — better than the implied odds available at BetMGM (61.5%). Readers new to BetMGM can get up to $1,000 in first-bet insurance from the book.

Best NBA Player Prop: Domantas Sabonis Over 5.5 Assist (-160) at BetMGM

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Mitchell Robinson Prop O/U 9.5 Rebounds

The Cleveland Cavaliers may not have Jarrett Allen tonight. Likewise, the New York Knicks won’t have Julius Randle. However, bettors shouldn’t necessarily rush to back center Mitchell Robinson as a rebounder — he’ll still have to contend with Evan Mobley.

Robinson is a solid rebounder and is averaging 9 of them per game. He racked up 11 in an earlier game against the Cavs that Allen missed as well. However, with Cleveland ranked last in pace, it’ll be tough for him to beat this number. The under has an expected win rate of 57%, better than the implied odds available at Caesars Sportsbook (54.3%) Readers yet to register at Caesars can get their first bet on the house up to $1,250.

Best NBA Player Prop: Mitchell Robinson Under 9.5 Rebounds (-119) at Caesars

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Author

Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at OddsShopper/Stokastic specializing in basketball, football and motorsports. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you trust his columns will be stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA and FIBA markets for OddsShopper and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar during their seasons. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree in history from Emory University.