Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Leverage Leaders

A wacky Thursday night slate of daily fantasy basketball started out looking good and then fell apart for the vast majority of my lineups. The Awesemo DFS community, however, had its fair share of winners once again. A busy nine-game Friday night slate has us looking primarily at the main building blocks without sweating the low-owned pivots too much for this space today. We’re always looking for players who are under-appreciated for the frequency with which they land in optimal lineups in DraftKings and FanDuel NBA simulations. As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our daily fantasy basketball picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

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Daily Fantasy Basketball: Optimals + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimal-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimal-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Domantas Sabonis – Indiana Pacers

DraftKings – $8,600 – PF/C | FanDuel – $8,800 – PF

Sabonis is already closing in on the title for this season’s most featured player in this space. With a price that never quite cracks the top tier and randomly drops by a few hundred dollars on both sites, Sabonis seems to be among the top plays on every slate that includes a Pacers game. He has had a stellar start to his season, putting up 1.22 fantasy points per minute in more than 36 minutes per game. Sabonis averages 21.6 real-life points on 24.6% usage, adding a solid 38.5% rebounding rate and a 28.2% assist rate that is quality for a power forward.

Sabonis will be popular in FanDuel NBA contests, but he has the site’s second-highest optimal-lineup rate at 37.0%. His boom-score probability of 33.8% is very solid for his relatively high price, positioning him among the site leaders in this category as well. The public exposure shares are not prohibitive. Sabonis carries a 3.5 leverage score, meaning the public is not on him nearly as much as they should be. That leaves him as a quality option to leverage up, even with a significant public mark on a large slate. Sabonis just seems like a fundamental building block on the two-PF site.

In DraftKings daily fantasy basketball contests, Sabonis slots in at both power forward and center, adding to the appeal. He lands in just 19.5% of optimal lineups in simulations, however, basically half the rate at which he lands in them on the blue site. Sabonis does have a 30.1% boom-score probability, suggesting there is upside, but the fit does not seem as ideal, and he is drawing a -0.4 leverage score.

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Hamidou Diallo – Oklahoma City Thunder

DraftKings – $5,200 – SG/SF | FanDuel – $5,000 – SG

Diallo looks to be in line for another night of significant run and an uptick in usage, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and now also Luguentz Dort sidelined with knee injuries. Playing with Dort on Wednesday, Diallo saw 32:49 and put up 16 real-life points on 5-for-9 shooting, adding 6-for-6 from the free throw line, 9 rebounds, 3 assists and a steal, on 20.9% usage. He should see even more touches this time around and has a chance at significant upside for the money given his 1.11 fantasy points per minute in standard situations.

Diallo leads the DraftKings NBA slate with a 60.6% optimal-lineup rate. He will be extreme chalk at a similar ownership level, creating a 0.3 leverage score. Despite the popularity, it makes sense to get to a significant amount of Diallo when we can move him between positions for a quality discount. While he is not a completely wild value, the boom-score probability of 68.0% on the salary and raw point projection over 40 points tell us everything we need to know. All of the Thunder are in play on DraftKings tonight.

On FanDuel Diallo looks nearly as strong. He appears in the optimal lineup in 57.7% of Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball simulations for the site, doing so at a lower cost than on the competition. Diallo carries a 78.5% boom-score probability and has significant upside for the price and position. The public will be on him on this site as well, with a -7.4 leverage score. I think it makes sense to bite the bullet and get to a good amount of him still.

James Harden – Brooklyn Nets

DraftKings – $10,600 PG/SG | FanDuel – $11,000 – SG

The Nets are star-studded and difficult to figure out for daily fantasy basketball purposes. The three-headed monster of Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving is a black hole for usage on the team, soaking up most of the squad’s touches and offensive opportunities. With all three on the floor, Harden has the lowest overall usage at 20.5% over 155 minutes, putting up 1.18 fantasy points per minute, down from his 1.30 mark earlier in the year and significantly down from his 1.56 rate last season.

Harden still ranks out well in Awesemo’s projections, however. Despite the price, he lands 10th overall on the DraftKings slate with a 13.8% optimal-lineup rate and 13th with his 21.5% boom-score probability. Harden will also be under-owned, his salary is prohibitive for accessing a number of other construction paths, and the public seems to be heading in other directions. The unpredictable nature of the Nets offense makes Harden and his teammates an uncomfortable play, but by our metrics he is on the board despite the sticker shock. He carries a 7.4 leverage score, and it will be easy to get well ahead of the field on him.

On FanDuel Harden costs even more. He still lands in 16.5% of optimal lineups and carries a 27.8% boom-score probability, ranking 15th among all players on the slate. He will not be owned, pulling in a slate-leading 6.6 leverage score, but the play is not quite as shiny, with his optimal-lineup rate ranking 14th overall. Still, at a position bereft of high-end options on the slate, Harden stands out next to Diallo at the top of the shooting guard board. There are options to pivot downward in salary while maintaining the optimal-lineup rates, but Harden has the most raw upside and the best available leverage score. He will be difficult but potentially worthwhile as a daily fantasy basketball pick at a stronger pace than the public is getting to him.

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Andre Drummond – Cleveland Cavaliers

DraftKings – $8,200 – C | FanDuel – $7,500 – C

Drummond enters the daily fantasy basketball conversation when his price drops, which it has once again for tonight’s slate. Drummond sees the bulk of the minutes and usage in the Cavaliers frontcourt and should be in line for at least the 28 minutes for which Awesemo has him projected. Drummond averages a stellar 1.51 fantasy points per minute this season, which should put him in position to smash through his required score for the price.

On DraftKings Drummond lands in 13.8% of optimal lineups, ranking him fourth among eligible centers on the site. He pulls in a 26.1% boom-score probability, which ranks behind the other three center options above him in the other category as well, though he will be the best leverage play, coming in with a 2.9 score and an easy public exposure mark to exceed. I want to get beyond the public’s mark in DraftKings NBA contests tonight.

For FanDuel, Drummond is priced down even further. He costs just $7,500 and pulls in a solid 25.6% optimal-lineup rate against a 49.2% boom-score probability. The chances of a ceiling game are strong for the price, and Drummond is likely to be a focal point on the singular center site. He lines up as a direct pivot from the more popular and more expensive Nikola Vucevic, with whom he compares favorably in our boom/bust metrics. The remaining centers are value options and defensive specialists like Rudy Gobert and Myles Turner, who are fine but less than reliable for daily fantasy basketball. I’m happy to spend most of my center ownership among the top two options on the blue site tonight.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.