Guard
James Harden was relatively disappointing last night, but he gets a good bounce-back spot against Portland. Russell Westbrook will be back for Houston, but Harden is still the top projected player on the slate. He has a 39% usage rate and 37.4% assist rate this season while averaging 1.63 DraftKings points per minute. It may be difficult to get to him on some sites because there is a lack of cheap value (as of now), but he is likely to be the top scorer on the slate and is obviously a good play where you can get to him.
Westbrook will be back in the lineup for Houston tonight, and he gets a favorable matchup against the Blazers. Westbrook has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute this season (excluding bonuses), and he should see about 36 minutes against Portland. The Blazers rank 24th in defensive rating over the last month and 16th in pace. There isn’t much cheap value available on this slate (as of now), so looking for high-upside options like Westbrook that are available for less money than the superstars looks like an appealing strategy.
Zach LaVine is getting expensive quickly, but it is well deserved. He is playing 36-plus minutes in competitive games, and he leads the team with a 32.5% usage rate since Kris Dunn joined the starting lineup in late November. LaVine has a favorable matchup against the Wizards, who have been one of the worst defensive teams all season long. Over the last month, Washington has been the fifth-least efficient defense while playing at the 12th-fastest pace.
Kyrie Irving played very well in 20 minutes against the Hawks in his return from injury and followed it up with a monster performance in 32 minutes last night. The 32 minutes were a good sign, as he had already announced that he was playing both ends of the back-to-back and he obviously wasn’t limited. He said after the game that he feels great and confirmed he would be playing tonight. If we average out Irving’s rates and account for the approximate amount of time that he will share the floor with each of Spencer Dinwiddie and Caris LeVert, he projects for a 33.2% usage rate and 33.3% assist rate. Philadelphia is a good team defensively, and Irving could see plenty of Ben Simmons, but his salary is depressed as a result of his injury. As such, it is still a good time to look to get him into lineups.
Kemba Walker will be playing without Jayson Tatum, which is a boost for his production. He has played 277 minutes without Tatum on the floor this season and has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.8% usage rate and 25.7% assist rate. If we add Jaylen Brown to the floor to account for time against starters, Walker has averaged 1.36 DraftKings points per minute with a 32.2% usage rate over 195 minutes. He is facing the Pistons, who have been the second-worst defense in the league over the last month. The only negative that I can find for Walker is that Detroit has actually been one of the most efficient defenses at defending the pick-and-roll this season, but that isn’t enough to deter me at his price point.
Malcolm Brogdon played about 34 minutes in his return from a back injury and strep throat, so he obviously isn’t limited. His salary suggests that the sites missed that information, however, as he sits at just $6,700 on DraftKings and $6,800 on FanDuel. Brogdon has played 626 minutes alongside Domantas Sabonis this season (to account for time with the starters) and has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute with a 25.7% usage rate and 36.4% assist rate. Minnesota has been a better team defensively recently, but they have also played at the fifth-fastest pace over the last month. I expect Brogdon to be one of my higher-owned players tonight.
Honorable Mention: Luka Doncic, Damian Lillard, Ben Simmons, Jimmy Butler, De’Aaron Fox, Chris Paul, Buddy Hield, Terrence Ross
Forward
LeBron James was extremely disappointing against Cleveland in his last game, but that has no impact on tonight. He faces the Magic today without Anthony Davis or Rajon Rondo. Orlando is a slow team that ranks 19th in pace over the last month while being the third-most efficient defense. The matchup isn’t appealing, but the salary is. James is only $10,400 on DraftKings and $10,800 on FanDuel. He has averaged 1.55 DraftKings points per minute without Davis on the floor this season and should play about 36 minutes as long as the game is competitive. He also could see an uptick in assists with Rondo sidelined since he won’t spend any time on the floor with another ball handler.
Tobias Harris played 39 minutes in his last game, and his salary barely moved. He wasn’t great in that game from a production standpoint, but he has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute in 656 minutes with Joel Embiid off the floor and Simmons on the floor. The Nets have played very good defense recently, but they also rank sixth in pace over the last month.
Al Horford is another beneficiary of Embiid’s absence who isn’t expensive enough. He played 35.5 minutes in Philadelphia’s last game, and we should get at least 34 if this game is competitive throughout. Horford has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute in 616 minutes alongside Simmons without Embiid on the floor this season.
Jaylen Brown has played 344 minutes without Tatum on the floor this season. He has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.6% usage rate. Of those 344 minutes, 195 have come alongside Walker. In those 195 minutes, Brown has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute with a 25.9% usage rate. He should play 33-plus minutes tonight against one of the worst defenses in the league and looks like a strong mid-range forward option.
Cody Zeller has power forward eligibility on DraftKings and we should take advantage of it on a slate that is relatively weak at the forward positions and lacks inexpensive value. Zeller started over Bismack Biyombo last game, and while he only played 22.5 minutes, I would expect more minutes than that if he remains in the starting lineup. He will have his hands full dealing with Nikola Jokic on the defensive end, but he has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute in 642 minutes alongside Devonte’ Graham this season. He is much less appealing on FanDuel since we have to give up our center position.
Honorable Mention: Gordon Hayward, Kyle Kuzma, Daniel Theis (Q)
Center
Jokic gets a great matchup against the Hornets’ frontcourt. Over the last month, Charlotte has allowed the sixth-most points in the paint. They rank 28th in defensive rating over that time as well. Jokic gets a bump with Paul Millsap out, as he has averaged 1.47 DraftKings points per minute in 397 minutes alongside Jamal Murray without Millsap this season, compared to 1.27 points per minute when Millsap joins them on the floor. The only negative for Jokic is that the Hornets play at a crawling pace, as they have played over two possessions slower than the next slowest team over the last month. Denver is also a slow team, so the number of offensive possessions will be limited.
Andre Drummond was ejected two games ago and then benched for the second unit in his most recent game. This has driven his price down a bit, and he is projected for relatively low ownership. I saw him only projected for 30 minutes on a different site earlier today, and that seems absurd. We are three games removed from Drummond playing 49 minutes (including overtime) against the Cavaliers and 38 minutes in the game before that.
An ejection and a weird game flow where the Pistons were getting blown out and the second unit brought them back isn’t enough reason for me to massively dock minutes from Drummond. The biggest concern is that Christian Wood is his primary backup now, and Wood is the type of player that can get hot and steal some minutes occasionally. Drummond’s range of outcomes include 38 plus minutes, however, and that is extremely appealing at low ownership and an inexpensive price point.
Hassan Whiteside is similar to Drummond in that he was very popular in his last game and he disappointed, only playing about 24 minutes. Whiteside was dealing with an upper respiratory infection that had cost him the previous game, so it is possible that had something to do with the limited playing time. He had been playing 34-plus minutes in competitive games prior to that, including the game before his absence where he had been listed as questionable with the same illness. I am willing to bet on Whiteside bouncing back, and he is still inexpensive for a player who has averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Clint Capela played nearly 40 minutes last night against Memphis, and we are regularly getting 36-plus minutes in competitive games. Capela has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute this season, and his salary is too cheap for that kind of production over 36 minutes. Portland has allowed the sixth-most total rebounds per game and the most offensive rebounds per game over the last month. Capela is third in the league with 4.1 offensive rebounds per game and 14.4 total rebounds per game this season.
Honorable Mention: Dwight Howard, JaVale McGee (not with Howard), Gorgui Dieng (FanDuel), Enes Kanter (better on FanDuel but fine anywhere)
