It’s a huge 10-game slate today but one where a lot of the matchups won’t jump off the page for NBA DFS picks. We have one of the projected-slowest paced games we’ll likely see this year when Charlotte heads to Denver and a lot of other games with defensively sound and lower-paced squads. Thankfully, we also have a few key injuries like Jayson Tatum‘s that’ll open up some very appealing NBA DFS options. So let’s dig into all of the nooks and crannies of today’s big slate in the Jan. 15 NBA DFS Switch and Hedge.
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Portland Heads To Houston For The Most Appealing NBA DFS Game On Paper
It’s a slate of slower and defensively sound matchups on tonight’s 10-gamer. That makes Portland’s visit to Houston with a 236-point combined total stand out. C.J. McCollum appears to be a solid mid-priced option with he and Carmelo Anthony in the same relative price tier. You can take some Anthony revenge game but I’d favor McCollum. Damian Lillard is tough to fully love when everyone is in the lineup, but in this kind of competitive fast-paced game, I don’t mind him today at under 10% ownership. Hassan Whiteside should be due for a bounce back after Anthony Tolliver stole minutes from him in his last game. Whiteside’s price has come down and he’s going to have issues if they switch onto him over and over again as Charlotte did at times. But he certainly has upside if he can stay on the floor.
James Harden and Russell Westbrook also look good against Portland’s 109.3 defensive rating, as does Clint Capela with a winnable matchup against Whiteside. I’d be most inclined for Westbrook as all of the prices have fallen but it’s an interesting move to go back to Harden after he was somewhat disappointing at his elevated Westbrook-less price point yesterday.
Dallas At Sacramento Also Looks Solid
Luka Doncic is another high-priced stud on a back-to-back. Kristaps Porzingis will be back in the lineup so Doncic will see a downtick to 1.9 fantasy points per minute without him. But Doncic is still interesting against a Sacramento team who should be game to keep this one close at home. Doncic is an interesting option with less than 5% ownership projected.
I’m most intrigued by De’Aaron Fox in the game. Fox has 56.25 and 60.5 fantasy points in his last two games with double-doubles that hovered near triple-doubles in both. His price is on the rise but this is a better matchup than those two games against Orlando and Milwaukee. Buddy Hield also projects as solid value with his price holding steady at a reasonable level. Nemanja Bjelica was a monster with 53.25 fantasy points on 13-for-16 shooting against Orlando last game. That obviously seems hard to replicate no matter how easy the matchup but he has seen steady run with Richaun Holmes sidelined, even with Marvin Bagley back in the lineup.
Boston Gets An NBA DFS Boost With No Jayson Tatum
Jayson Tatum is out with a knee issue. Kemba Walker averages 1.4 fantasy points per minute without Tatum and that makes him one of the stronger plays on the day against Detroit’s 110 defensive rating. Enes Kanter would also benefit if Daniel Theis remains out. He lost some usage in his 26 minutes with the starting group last game but Tatum’s loss would open up a chance for more usefulness today. Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward see slight boosts to their prospects without Tatum as both average around 1.1 fantasy points per minute. They look fine here with reasonable prices.
You can definitely talk me into a return to Andre Drummond here. His price is down and he was a disaster last game against Jahlil Okafor as he got played off the floor in just 22 minutes of court time. He still had 36.5 fantasy points in that spot and we’ve seen Boston get crushed inside by motivated bigs. If we see bad Drummond spurred on by trade rumors, he’ll be screwed. But at under 10% ownership, I like the idea of going to him above the field. I’m less into Derrick Rose due to the matchup against Boston’s 102.5 defensive rating. His price is up and his minutes have been solid with 23 shot attempts aided by overtime in his last game so he can get there. But it feels iffy with the defenders Boston can throw at him.
Two Key Questionable Bigs In Minnesota
Domantas Sabonis was down after he missed time with just 35.5 fantasy points in 32 minutes against Philadelphia last game. This spot against Minnesota, particularly if Karl-Anthony Towns makes it back into the lineup, is nice for Sabonis to get back on track with under 5% ownership. Malcolm Brogdon may be the more appealing play overall. Brogdon went for 46.25 fantasy points in 34 minutes against Philadelphia and looked back to his early season form. I’m up to ride the hot hand in this pace-up spot versus Minnesota.
Towns is likely out of play for me even if he gets back into the lineup. He’s been out for so long that it seems hard to imagine he’ll see a full run of minutes. It’s a good matchup for him, one where his size is needed. But between Gorgui Dieng’s effectiveness and questions about Towns’ conditioning, he likely can’t pay off his elevated price tag. Dieng would be very playable if Towns misses though because of the size on Indiana’s front line.
Chicago Has Some Hilarious NBA DFS Prices For Their Game Versus Washington
We’ve discussed all year long the value in playing guys against the Washington Wizards. A near-league-high pace and 113.3 defensive rating will do that. On FanDuel, his $8,300 price tag is firmly in play. But are you willing to pay $9,300 on DraftKings for Zach LaVine? That’s a tough one. LaVine has between 33% and 36% usage in his last four games and he showed 56.5-fantasy-point upside against a tough Indiana squad in that stretch. I’d want a little bit of LaVine – the field’s 7% projected ownership is a decent benchmark – but the Washington matchup may now be at the point of being a little overrated if you have to pay a mint for key players in their games. Tomas Satoransky and Lauri Markkanen are both currently listed as questionable with injuries; their absences may make LaVine’s price tag more palatable.
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Because of the matchup, Kris Dunn and the aforementioned secondary Bulls look decently appealing if they’re in. But these guys also saw a bit of a tick upwards on the price tags so there are no sure things. It feels worth having some exposure to the Bulls but it’d feel a lot more comfortable if, say, Markkanen sat and we got a Thaddeus Young start.
The Wizards are also now a bit of a dumpster fire on the other side with Bradley Beal back in the lineup. Beal saw just 27 minutes in his return to the lineup but he had 48% usage in that time frame with 25 shot attempts. He’s in play for me but everything else here is tough. Jordan McRae was largely Beal’s direct backup in that last game. Ish Smith saw a decent 28 minutes of run but his usage was down. Troy Brown had 10% usage in 31 minutes as he did a lot of watching when on the court with Beal and McRae. I’d go elsewhere other than maybe some stabs at Beal.
Taking It Back To 1999 With The Pace In Denver
Charlotte has a league-low 99 pace on the year. Denver has the league’s lowest mark with a 99.6 pace. There are reasonable values in this game but it looks like it could be one of the biggest slogs we’ll see all year. Cody Zeller is one of those value plays who could be fine despite the low pace. He’ll be one of the chalk cheap plays on the day but he saw 23 minutes last game and would benefit with P.J. Washington likely to come back down to Earth after a monster 48.75 fantasy points against Portland.
I also don’t hate Devonte’ Graham here with where his price is. It’s hard to see him tapping into his full ceiling but his price is reasonable and he’s chucking from deep with 13 3-point attempts in his last two games and 9.4 per game on the year. Denver defends the 3 exceedingly well as they allow 32.5% shooting from deep this year. But Graham has contrarian upside at low ownership.
Jamal Murray is questionable currently and Monte Morris would be a killer play if Murray misses. Nikola Jokic also looks interesting to me with an elevated price that will keep his ownership down. He has over 51.75 fantasy points in three of his last four games and Charlotte has deeply struggled versus centers this year. Jokic is unlikely to lose court time like Hassan Whiteside did in this same spot in his last game.
A Quick Note On Shai
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander exploded with 66.5 fantasy points in his last game against Minnesota. A lot of national media attention treated this as a coming out party with his 20-point, 20-rebound game that made him the youngest to do it since Shaquille O’Neal. I would not expect that again. Gilgeous-Alexander has a 9% rebound rate on the year and he benefited from a lot of missed shots in the game that bounced right into his hands. He has upside overall but I wouldn’t consider him a materially better NBA DFS play than Chris Paul or even a much cheaper Dennis Schroder. Gilgeous-Alexander is talented and has a lot of potential. But he’s priced up for an aberration of a game and that’s usually not a situation to chase.
Another Questionable Status Late-Night Hammer
LeBron James looks good overall but he’d be a great play if Anthony Davis were to miss again. His price is up but Orlando has a decent chance to stay competitive in this road game in Los Angeles. I have no issue going back his way, particularly if we get an inkling that Davis will be out before lock. Kyle Kuzma would also be playable if Davis misses despite his terrible 18.75-fantasy-point day versus Cleveland. Kuzma started a little cold while Avery Bradley started hot and that was the difference for Kuzma with a blowout limiting his minutes overall.
The Lakers likely can’t get away with extended minutes for Jared Dudley here, something that also cut into Kuzma’s first half minutes, so he’d intrigue me if Davis will miss. The same goes for Dwight Howard who’s priced up but has 38.5 fantasy points and 44.25 fantasy points in these last two games without Davis.
