DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS Deep Dive: Wednesday January 1st (FREE TODAY)

Guard

Damian Lillard has averaged 36.9 minutes per game this season, which is third in the league behind Kyle Lowry and James Harden. The Blazers are four point road favorites tonight against the New York Knicks, who rank 27^th in defensive rating and 14^th in pace over the last month. New York has defended pick-and-roll ball-handlers reasonably well this season, allowing the sixth fewest points per game and ranking in the 62^nd percentile in defensive efficiency, but their defense as a whole is ineffective so I am not overly concerned for Lillard.

Evan Fournier exceeded 36 minutes against the Hawks with Aaron Gordon sidelined and Gordon could miss tonight’s game as well. He is currently listed as questionable, but my assumption is that he sits which would open the door for more wing minutes on Orlando. Fournier has an excellent matchup against the worst defensive team in the league in what is also a pace-up spot.

Eric Bledsoe only played about 16 minutes in his return from injury as the Bucks didn’t need him in the fourth quarter against Chicago. I expect him to be limited again tonight, but it is worth noting that he basically played three four-minute stints in the first half against Chicago, and then another to open the second half before never returning to the game. If Minnesota can hang in this game at all (which is a big ask on the road without Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns or, probably, Jeff Teague) then Bledsoe is likely to see at least 24 minutes. His salary is very affordable and he has averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute this season. There is plenty of blowout risk in this game, but the Bucks also have a 120 team total against a poor Minnesota defense. I’ll take my chances on Bledsoe since this is a small slate.

Shabazz Napier is a mediocre play at $5,800 on DraftKings, in my opinion, but he stands out on FanDuel because he is only $4,800 and we only have three games to choose from. I am hesitant to project more than 28-30 minutes for anyone on the ‘Wolves, regardless of who is injured, because Ryan Saunders continues to run very deep rotations (and there is a good chance that the game is over by the third quarter). Still, Napier has averaged just shy of a fantasy point per minute without Wiggins, Towns or Teague on the floor this season and he should be able to pay off his FanDuel price tag.

Honorable Mention: Bradley Beal (Q), Devin Booker, C.J. McCollum, Elfrid Payton

Value: D.J. Augustin, Terrence Ross, Donte DiVincenzo, Rajon Rondo

Forward

Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best per-minute producer on the slate and he has an excellent matchup against the Timberwolves, who rank 24^th in defensive rating and ninth in pace over the last month. Minnesota has also allowed the sixth most transition possessions per game and transition points per game this season. The biggest issue for Giannis is that he has averaged less than 31 minutes per game this season and less than 30 minutes per game over the last month because the Bucks are involved in so many blowouts and Milwaukee is very good at limiting his minutes in-game instead of forcing him to sit out entire games like most other stars in the league. On a slate like this one, where we have other top-end options at forward positions, it can be tough to pay all the way up for Giannis since we know we are likely to get fewer minutes.

LeBron James is one of my favorite plays on the slate as he is less expensive than Giannis and should play more minutes. There is blowout risk in his game as well, but the Suns are a more competent team than the current iteration of the Timberwolves. James has averaged 35 minutes per game this season and his matchup against Phoenix is a good one. The Suns rank fifth in pace and 28^th in defensive rating over the last month and they’ve allowed the 10^th most points per game in transition this season, which suits LeBron well.

Anthony Davis is slightly less expensive than LeBron and offers similar upside. His median projection is a bit lower, especially on DraftKings where blocks are less important, but the ceiling is comparable. Both players have averaged about 35 minutes per game this season and, while Davis doesn’t contribute the assists or offer quite as much usage, he still has a usage percentage north of 30 percent this season. Phoenix ranks in the 48^th percentile in defensive efficiency against post-ups this season and Davis is third in the NBA in post-up attempts per game.

Julius Randle has been playing huge minutes whenever the game is competitive and the Knicks are only four point underdogs at home against Portland. Since the coaching change in New York, Randle has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.6 percent usage percentage, 14.4 percent rebounding percentage and 15.3 percent assist percentage. Portland has been the fifth least efficient defense over the last month and I don’t expect Carmelo Anthony to slow down Randle much.

Honorable Mention: Jonathan Isaac, Carmelo Anthony, Marcus Morris, Jarrett Culver (better on FanDuel)

Value: Mikal Bridges

Center

Hassan Whiteside’s salary has increased, but it is important to keep in mind that he was one of the most mispriced players on every slate beforehand. I’m sure that some people will see his new salary and say “he is overpriced now” but that isn’t the case. He just isn’t the most obvious play on the board anymore. Whiteside has averaged 31.7 minutes per game over the last month (14 games played) with 1.39 DraftKings points per minute. He can get to 34-plus minutes in competitive games and his direct back-up, Skal Labissiere, is sidelined again for tonight’s game. The Knicks have allowed the sixth most total rebounds and eighth most offensive rebounds per game over the last month. Whiteside should be able to take advantage and remains one of my favorite center options- especially on FanDuel where Nikola Vucevic isn’t on the slate.

Nikola Vucevic gets a great matchup against the Washington Wizards, who are the worst defensive team in the NBA. Vucevic should be able to take advantage of this for himself, but also as a facilitator who should see more of his assist opportunities converted into made baskets thanks to Washington’s inability to defend. Washington has also allowed the eighth most total rebounds per game over the last month. Vucevic’s usage should also see an increase if Orlando continues to stagger his minutes with those of Evan Fournier, which I expect will be the case as long as Gordon is out.

Honorable Mention: Gorgui Dieng, Brook Lopez