In NBA DFS and DFS as a whole, it is not as simple as rostering who we think the best play is. We have to consider the odds each individual player has of going off or busting. Nobody is a sure thing. With the Awesemo NBA DFS Boom vs. Bust Tool, we have our own odds to help us navigate range of outcomes for NBA daily fantasy. These are some of the NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel that have the best NBA DFS projections of booming or busting according to our tool. Let’s get into the Saturday, Dec. 26 slate!
*Candidates written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
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NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Boom/Bust Projections
NBA Daily Fantasy DraftKings Boom Candidates
Al Horford vs. Hornets: PF/C, $6,100, 34.0% Boom
Al Horford by far has the highest boom probability on the slate for DraftKings today, with nearly eight percent of separation between him and the next player. Horford and the Oklahoma City Thunder had their first game of the season cancelled, so we have not seen him in action with his new team yet. However, there are few candidates to steal minutes from the veteran. He is listed as the starting five, with Mike Muscala backing him up. With 30 minutes being a safe projection for him, anything above a 1.0 fantasy point per minute for Horford will get him close to being a “boom” in his Thunder debut. He should be asked to score as much as possible, with no other go-to scorer on the team.
Blake Griffin vs. Cavaliers: PF/C, $7,100, 22.7% Boom
For just $1k more, you can move up to Blake Griffin, who has a high ceiling than Horford. Before Griffin took the floor in the debut, his last game was Dec. 26, 2019. As expected, there was rust to shake off. The Pistons big man went 3-of-16 against the Spurs. With an easier matchup with Cleveland today, Griffin has a solid chance to crack the 30-minute threshold and do a lot of damage. With either Kevin Love or Larry Nance Jr. trying to guard Griffin today, look for him to thrive today, especially when Detroit pushes the pace. This leads to his NBA DFS projection of booming.
NBA Daily Fantasy DraftKings Bust Candidates
Larry Nance Jr. vs. Pistons: PF/C, $6,800, 95.4% Bust
Kevin Love has the chance to play today, which would completely sink Nance’s value. His minutes would shrink to the point where he is not viable at this current price point. However, he could also be avoid if Love is out again. Last game, Nance put up a solid fantasy day, finishing with 36.5 DraftKings points. However, it required him to go 6-of-6 shooting to get there. With such a low usage, the chance of Nance being a bust is high.
LaMelo Ball vs. Thunder: PG, $5,200, 87.8% Bust
LaMelo Ball was one of the rookies many wanted to watch in their NBA debut, as he was already racking up highlights in the preseason. However, those who watched were disappointed. His role was a limited one, as Ball played just 16 minutes off the bench for Charlotte. He missed all five of his shots and turned the ball over three times in his limited playing time. While his potential is high, it appears Ball needs a bit of time to adjust to the NBA, leading to him being a player with a high likelihood of being a bust today.
NBA Daily Fantasy FanDuel Boom Candidates
Nikola Vucevic vs. Wizards: C, $8,200, 43.7% Boom
Nikola Vucevic picked up right where he left off last season. In the season debut, the Orlando big man finished with a double-double in 34 minutes. The only knock to his game was his shooting. It looked like he needed to shake a little rust off, as he shot just 5-of-13 from the floor. With an easier matchup against Washington today, look for Vucevic to be the featured part of this Orlando offense, leading to him being a strong NBA DFS boom candidate today.
Devonte’ Graham vs. Thunder: SG, $5,400, 41.3% Boom
Devonte’ Graham was one of the most improved players in the NBA last season, proving he can score the ball in bunches. In his season debut, Graham struggled to find his shot, finishing just 4-of-13 from the field. Terry Rozier is also not likely to go off in the same way alongside Graham, so he should see a much higher usage rate than he did last game (17.4%). Given his price, Graham has a lot of upside today, with a relatively safe floor.
NBA Daily Fantasy FanDuel Bust Candidates
Ben Simmons vs. Knicks: PG, $9,600, 65.2% Bust
The two bust candidates for the DraftKings section can also headline here for FanDuel.
After those two, Ben Simmons is one of the players with a likelihood to bust today. At $9,600, Simmons requires a big performance to simply hit value. This makes him a risky play, since he isn’t a high-volume scorer. In his season debut, Simmons put up a 48.3-point performance. He needed three blocks and two steals to get there, since he scored just 16 points. While a matchup with the Knicks looks nice, there’s too many scenarios where Simmons is a bust, and very few where he outperforms value.
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