NBA DFS Leverage Picks: Jrue Holiday's Back and Worth Rostering

Monday presents a nine-game slate and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will find the best high- and low-owned players that offer leverage for GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Monday, Dec. 19.

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NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays | Dec. 16

High-End Tier

With Anthony Davis (foot) on the shelf, LeBron James is expected to be one of the most popular studs on the slate, especially on DraftKings, where Stokastic is slating the veteran to be around 25% owned. James’ usage does rise two percentage points with Davis off the floor this season, but there are certainly factors working against him tonight. The 37-year-old is playing his second game in two nights and will be on the road, facing a Suns’ club that ranks inside the top-10 in defensive efficiency and in the bottom-10 in pace. With a plethora of appealing studs to consider for this nine-game slate, fading a chalky James is a wise strategy for GPPs.

Update: James (ankle) has been ruled out for Monday, leaving Russell Westbrook in a massive role and making him a great target at his reasonable price tags. With James and Davis off the floor this season, Westbrook leads the Lakers with a 32.7% usage rate — which is a 5.2 percentage-point increase from his season average — and 1.3 DraftKings points per minute.

While he is expected to popular on both DraftKings and FanDuel in Stokastic’s projections, Domantas Sabonis is a high-end player we should be going overweight on tonight. The Kings will be back at home tonight after a six-game road trip and are competing in the highest total on the slate vs. the Hornets (240.5 points). This is the highest total on the board by nearly 10 points and Sacramento’s implied team total is the highest on the slate by over five points (125.5 points). On top of being on the second leg of a back-to-back, Charlotte ranks 27th in defensive efficiency, fifth in pace and second in most rebounds allowed. As we just saw last night, with Nikola Jokic destroying this Hornets team for a 95.75 DraftKings point triple-double, including 27 rebounds, going against this Charlotte defense is extremely optimal for opposing centers and while we can’t expect this type of explosion, Sabonis should exceed 50 fantasy points in this dream spot. The center was outstanding on this recent six-game road trip for the Kings, scoring 52 DraftKings PPG, and has topped 50 DraftKings points in four consecutive starts in a total of at least 230 points.

As for lower-owned studs, Joel Embiid and Jrue Holiday are great options. Embiid gets a home matchup against a Raptors squad that is on the second leg of a back-to-back and ranks 26th in defensive rating this month. This season, the center ranks second in the NBA in usage this season (38.4%) and is generating 1.6 DraftKings PPM. Furthermore, Embiid has been dramatically more productive on his home floor, averaging a whopping 12.1 more DraftKings PPG at home in Philadelphia, compared to when on the road. The big man has recorded over 60 DraftKings points in six of his last 10 starts at home and is only projected to be around 10% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. As for Holiday, the guard is competing in the fourth highest total on the slate vs. the Pelicans (228.5 points) and the Bucks will be missing Khris Middleton (knee). Thanks to slight upgrades to all his rates, Holiday produces 1.3 DraftKings PPM with Middleton off the floor this season. Plus, Holiday is amassing 48.2 DraftKings PPG for the 10 times he has found himself in a total of at least 225 points this year. Holiday has a ceiling north of 50 fantasy points tonight and is forecasted to be less than 3% owned both DraftKings and FanDuel according to Stokastic’s projections.

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Value Tier

Especially on DraftKings, where he costs only $4,200, Thomas Bryant is a prime example of good chalk with Davis sidelined. In the last two contests the Kentucky product has missed, Bryant has started at center for the Lakers and collected 33 DraftKings points in 32 minutes per game. While he is going against a stout Suns’ defense, the likely return of Deandre Ayton (ankle, went through shootaround) for Phoenix should guarantee Bryant 30+ minutes of work to match Ayton’s size. Bryant is scoring 1.1 DraftKings PPM with Davis off the court this season and is a strong bet to eclipse 30 fantasy points tonight.

For lower owned value plays, Markelle Fultz is standing out, with tonight’s Magic vs. Hawks matchup boasting the third-highest total on the slate (230.5 points). With a 21.5% usage rate and a team-high 27.3% assist percentage, the former first overall pick is supplying 0.9 DraftKings PPM this season and has received at least 28 minutes of work in three straight contests, resulting in 33.7 DraftKings PPG during this time. Atlanta ranks seventh in pace, which is a huge upgrade for this Orlando club that ranks 20^th in the metric and Fultz owns a career average of 28 DraftKings PPG in totals of at least 230 points (13 games).

With Stokastic projecting him to be less than 5% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Jarred Vanderbilt is also worth a gamble in GPPs with Kelly Olynyk (ankle) out for the Jazz. The veteran’s absence should lock Vanderbilt into a 30+ minute role tonight, giving him much better upside than his mid-tier salaries suggest, regardless of this tough matchup vs. the Cavs, who lead the league in defensive efficiency. This season, Vanderbilt collects one DraftKings PPM with Olynyk off the court and is averaging 28 DraftKings for the 12 instances he has cracked the 25-minute mark.

Situations to Monitor

For the Blazers, Jusuf Nurkic (calf) and Jerami Grant (back) are both questionable for tonight’s beautiful matchup vs. the Thunder, who lead the league in pace. Nurkic was notably downgraded to questionable earlier today and appears to be trending in the wrong direction. If the center sits, the door will open for Drew Eubanks to start and be a viable punt play in this elite spot vs. the Thunder. In the three starts Eubanks has made for Nurkic this season, he has produced 22.7 DraftKings points in 27.5 minutes per game. Now, if either Grant or Nurkic sit tonight, Damian Lillard will see an upgrade to his already massive usage rate and be a great spend for GPPs, that likely will be overlooked, given the size of this slate. Since returning from a seven-game absence, the point guard has looked outstanding, scoring over 50 DraftKings points in four of his last seven starts.

Opposite of the Blazers, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (back) was upgraded from out to questionable for the Thunder, giving the guard a strong chance of suiting up tonight. With Josh Giddey (illness) out, Gilgeous-Alexander will be an outstanding GPP option vs. this Blazers’ defense that ranks 26^th in defensive efficiency if he suits up. The late day status change should translate into low ownership for Gilgeous-Alexander and with Giddey off the floor this season, his usage has risen to a huge 39.6%, resulting in 1.6 DraftKings PPM. Now, if Gilgeous-Alexander ends up sitting, Isaiah Joe and Lu Dort should operate as Thunder’s primary options and would be core plays. With Gilgeous-Alexander and Giddey off the floor this season, Dort and Joe lead the Thunder in usage at 29% and 24.4%, respectively. With these large rates, Dort supplies 1.1 DraftKings PPM and Joe collects a team-best 1.4 DraftKings.

Lastly, Rudy Gobert (ankle) is questionable for the Wolves, while Naz Reid (trapezius) is probable, and Karl-Anthony Towns (calf) remains out. If Gobert remains sidelined, Reid would be a must play in this matchup with the Mavs that carries the fourth highest total on the slate (228 points). Before missing the second half of last night’s win over the Bulls, Reid got the start at center with Towns and Gobert out last Friday and went off for 51.75 DraftKings points across 36.4 minutes vs. the Thunder. On the other hand, if Gobert can make his return, he will be an enticing target, that would likely get slept on after missing the last two tilts. Before this absence, Gobert was averaging 44 DraftKings PPG in his previous five starts sans Towns.

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