NBA DFS Leverage Picks: Rudy Gobert Projecting as Far Too Unpopular

On tap for Friday is a massive 14-game slate and with the help of Stokastic’s NBA DFS ownership projections, this article will find the best high- and low-owned players that offer leverage for GPPs. Let’s get into the top NBA DFS leverage picks for Friday, Dec. 23.

Get a $25 free bet plus a risk free bet up to $1,000 this week only!

NBA DFS Leverage Picks & Optimizer Plays | Dec. 23

High-End Tier

While Russell Westbrook (probable, foot) will return tonight, Anthony Davis (foot) will remain sidelined, keeping LeBron James as an elite high-end value. With Davis off the floor this season, James’ usage rises 2 percentage points to 33.4% and he averages 1.5 DraftKings points per minute. Furthermore, James is producing 58.4 DraftKings points per game in starts without Davis this season. As for his matchup, James is facing a Hornets club that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency and fourth in pace. This matchup’s total is the highest on the slate (241.5 points), and the Lakers’ implied team total is the second largest on the board (122.5 points). Combine this near perfect spot with the expanded role James sees sans Davis, and he needs to be a priority, even though Stokastic projecting James to be roughly 20% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Those rostering a highly owned James will need to find some high-end contrarian players to roster with him in GPPs. Slated for single-digit ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Jrue Holiday is a very enticing option. The Bucks – Nets game is one of the marquee matchups of the night, and not only is this total tied for the sixth highest on the slate (229 points), but it also presents the second-tightest spread on the board, with Brooklyn only favored by 3 points. Holiday has been terrific, scoring over 45 DraftKings points in six of his past 10 starts and Khris Middleton (doubtful, knee) is expected to remain out for Milwaukee. With Middleton off the floor this season, all of Holiday’s rates increase, specifically his assist percentage rises 2.2 percentage points, helping him average 1.3 DraftKings points per minute. Holiday has 48 DraftKings points per game in totals of 225 points or higher this season (11 games) and has a ceiling over 50 fantasy points in this clash of Eastern Conference contenders.

Want to try our new lineup generator for 50% off?

Use the coupon code SCORE to get 50% off the first week or month for any package, including Platinum, NBA, and NBA Lineup Generator!

Rudy Gobert is also a sharp target for GPPs, with Stokastic projecting him to be less than 3% owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He is listed as questionable with an ankle injury but carried this same designation Wednesday and delivered 46.75 DraftKings points in 38 minutes against the Mavericks. Particularly with the Timberwolves not playing again till Monday, Gobert should be a full go for tonight’s matchup in Boston. This contest’s total is tied for the sixth highest on the slate (229 points) and the Celtics could be without with their best defensive big in Robert Williams (illness), who was downgraded to questionable earlier today. Nonetheless, Gobert has been tremendous with Karl-Anthony Towns (calf) sidelined, averaging 44.5 DraftKings points per game in his last six starts and is far too cheap for this type of upside, especially on DraftKings, where Gobert’s salary has inexplicably dropped to $7,300 after his huge outing against Dallas on Wednesday.

Value Tier

With Eric Gordon (thumb) and Jae’Sean Tate (ankle) out tonight, K.J. Martin and Tari Eason are projected to be two of the five most rostered players on both DraftKings and FanDuel. While both are projecting well at their low price tags, the Rockets are in a poor spot against the Mavericks, who rank 11th in defensive efficiency and dead last in pace. Houston’s implied team total is the third lowest on the slate (106.5 points) and these two players both have floors under 20 fantasy points in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool. With the heavy ownership coming their direction, perusing either Martin or Eason simply isn’t a smart move to contend in GPPs tonight, especially with this being a massive 14-game slate. In Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool, both Martin and Eason are rating as bottom-10 options on the slate in terms of leverage score.

Latest NBA DFS Content

While not a contrarian option, Thomas Bryant isn’t seeing the attention he deserves tonight. As noted above, the Lakers will remain without Davis tonight and they are competing in the highest total on the slate against the Hornets (241.5 points). Bryant has been great as Davis’ replacement in the starting lineup, averaging 33 DraftKings points in 30 minutes per game in the last four Davis has missed. On top of their fast pace and defensive woes, Charlotte is giving up the second-most rebounds in the league, making this a tremendous spot for opposing big men. Bryant is averaging 1.1 DraftKings points per minute this season and has a ceiling near 40 fantasy points in Stokastic’s Boom Bust Tool.

Coby White is also an outstanding punt to consider tonight, especially on DraftKings, where Stokastic is projecting him for single-digit ownership. The Bulls are going to be shorthanded tonight, with Alex Caruso (concussion) out and Javonte Green (knee) doubtful. White may not start but should see close to 30 minutes tonight and easily exceed five-times value at his cheap price tags. In the lone contest Caruso has missed this season, White logged a season-high 31.3 minutes off the bench and posted 29.5 DraftKings points against the Hawks. He scores 0.8 DraftKings points per minute with Caruso and Green off the floor this season and is averaging 25.5 DraftKings points per game when he logs over 25 minutes.

Situations to Monitor

While the Pacers are in a brutal spot against the Heat, who rank eighth in defensive efficiency and 27th in pace, T.J. McConnell will be an elite punt play if Tyrese Haliburton (questionable, wrist) is out. McConnell will likely start and play at least 25 minutes if Haliburton sits, giving McConnell more than enough time to destroy his low salaries. This season, McConnell is averaging 1 DraftKings point per minute and 25.2 DraftKings points per game when he logs over 20 minutes.

Join our FREE DISCORD!

Terry Rozier (hip) is questionable tonight and if he misses his third straight, LaMelo Ball will be a tremendous spend in this slate-high total against the Lakers (241.5 points). He has provided 57 DraftKings points per game in these past two without Rozier. Furthermore, Ball scores 1.5 DraftKings points per minute with Rozier off the court, thanks to a 32.2% usage rate, which is a 4.6-percentage-point boost from his average for the season. Also, Kelly Oubre Jr. would be a nice high-end target if Rozier sits, that wouldn’t be a common name in GPPs. Oubre’s usage rises three percentage points to 29.5% and he scores 1.1 DraftKings points per minute with Rozier off the floor this season, both of which rank second only to Ball for this situation.

Zion Williamson (health and safety protocols) and Brandon Ingram (toe) have been ruled out tonight, while CJ McCollum (calf) is questionable. If McCollum is active, he will be an appealing lucrative target against a Thunder squad that leads the league in pace. McCollum erupted for a season-high 70.5 DraftKings points against the Spurs with Williamson and Ingram inactive last night and leads the Pelicans with a 30% usage rate with the two forwards off the floor this season. Now, if McCollum joins Williamson and Ingram on the sidelines, the Pelicans will have a plethora of plays to consider, most notably Jonas Valanciunas and Jose Alvarado. With Williamson, Ingram and McCollum off the court this season, Valanciunas leads New Orleans with a 29.2% usage rate and averages 1.1 DraftKings points per minute, while Alvarado produces 1 DraftKings points per minute, a 23.2% usage rate and a team-high 31.4% assist percentage.

Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!