DraftKings NBA Lineup Review: Analyzing The Winning DFS Strategy Build

Last night we had a nine game NBA DFS slate after the Grizzlies – Trail Blazers game was cancelled. The main DraftKings GPP was the NBA $500K Excellent 8’s ($100,000 to first, $8 to enter). The return of Kendrick Nunn took center stage. After blowing his first chance as popular value a few days ago, Nunn crushed last night, putting up 47 fantasy points for $4,000 and rostered by 38.6% of the field. We also had an early, unpopular game go off as the Nets and Cavaliers took it to two overtimes. This result dashed the hopes (earlier than usual) of a large percentage of players that faded that game. Let’s get right into the NBA DraftKings Lineup review.

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DFS Rewind: NBA DraftKings Lineup Review | Jan. 20

In this NBA DraftKings GPP, there were 72,916 total entries from 21,969 DFS players, 3,427 (15.6%) of which made a profit. This GPP did not fill by a few thousand seats.

The Winner

Congratulations to 150-maxer squirrelpatroldk, who took this GPP down with a single bullet and turned $8 into $100,000. This lineup used $49,900 salary and had a cumulative team ownership of 149.8%. The key was obviously reserving four spots from players from the Cavaliers – Nets game and surrounding them with solid chalk. Collin Sexton, Larry Nance Jr., Cedi Osman, Jeff Green, these players were a combined 9% owned. Eighteen entries contained those three Cavs (squirrelpartroldk only had one), and only five entries included this combination with Green. This lineup scored a 388.75 and won the GPP by 2.50 points.

Squirrelpatroldk had hours to watch as other other teams tried to reach him, but the win was cemented when late game starters went to the bench in the fourth quarter due to blowouts. Here is the second-place lineup that fell short:

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Salary and Ownership

Seven of the top 50 finishers used less salary than $49,700. Team salaries were lower than normal, which makes since on a two-game slate with players trying to get different. Here are the top salaries used last night:

$50,000 | 52%
$49,900 | 24%
$49,800 | 11%
$49,700 | 6%
$49,600 | 3%

The most popular optimal lineup was played 138 times, using $50,000 team salary and a cumulative team ownership of 200.4%, it scored a 304.25 and min-cashed:

The 150-Maxers

One hundred and thirty 150-maxers entered 19,500 lineups, making up 26.7% of entries in this tournament. Thirty-five (27%) made a profit, taking first through fifth, seventh and ninth place. Twelve 150-maxers cashed 20 lineups or fewer.

The most profitable 150-maxer was squirrelpatroldk, cashing 63 of 150 for a total total profit in this GPP of $99,792. He used 92 different players.

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Miscellaneous

Boom of the slate goes to the aforementioned Nunn. Bust is a tough one, but it looks like Anthony Edwards, who put up 7.5 fantasy points (1.7x) for $4,500 at 18% ownership.

Three hundred and twenty-four lineups were reserved and not played. The lowest-owned lineup that cashed (min-cashed) featured a cumulative team ownership of 15%:

The lowest-salary team that cashed (min-cashed) used $47,500 team salary:

The best entry from a single bullet took 17th place:

The best lineup possible would have scored a 432.25, winning the GPP by 43 points. Clint Capela and John Collins in the same lineup being optimal is the biggest surprise to me.

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