NBA DFS returned with a great two-game slate, and both games came down to the wire. We’re following that up today with an awkward six-game slate, which spans the entire day. Make sure to check game times for today!
In NBA DFS, setting your lineup is both an art and a science. You are balancing each player’s monetary value with your internal projection for them on a given day, hoping they do not let you down in a number of different ways. In a way, you are subconsciously determining a given player’s potential to blow up or possibly bust, but we actually have a specific resource that values boom/bust probability for every player on both DraftKings and FanDuel, using our own algorithm.
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The Awesemo Boom vs. Bust Tool Explained
When playing cash games, the bust potential is vital, as the risk of a high bust potential for a player would often outweigh the reward. The boom potential really comes to play when entering GPPs, as you clearly need the majority of your players to vastly outperform their value for you to rank in the high money at the end of the night. For the purposes of Awesemo’s boom/bust tool, a player’s value is defined as 5x pts/$1,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel. A player must score 10 points above their value to “boom,” while not meeting value is considered a “bust.” Let’s take a look at some of the more popular boom/bust candidates for Friday, July 31.
*All candidates were written up in the morning, so boom/bust percentages may change throughout the day.
NBA DFS Picks: Boom Candidates
Luka Doncic vs. Rockets: DraftKings: PG/SF, $10,500, 31.5% Boom | FanDuel: SG, $10,800, 31.0% Boom
Luka Doncic is healthy, playing a fast Rockets team, and his price is back under $11,000. He is safe for cash games, but the ceiling is obvious with him putting up a 70-point fantasy performance in his only game against Houston this season. If you’re paying up for someone tonight, it should probably be Doncic. The Mavericks also have something to play for, as they would jump the Rockets with a win.
Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Celtics: DraftKings: PF, $10,500, 31.9% Boom | FanDuel: SF, $10,700, 40.3% Boom
While the Bucks do not need to go all out in this game as the No. 1 seed, Giannis Antetokounmpo is likely to come out and make a statement against one of the top teams in the East. We’ve seen his price drop, which puts him in “boom” territory even if the Bucks rest him in the fourth quarter. With Eric Bledsoe off the floor this season, Giannis is averaging 1.93 DraftKings points and 1.89 FanDuel points per minute. If he’s a little better than his average, we may only need 30 minutes for a “boom” performance, though Doncic seems to be the better five-figure player.
Jakob Poeltl vs. Kings: DraftKings: C, $4,700, 40.9% Boom | FanDuel: C, $4,200, 67.7% Boom
The Spurs are a bit shorthanded tonight with LaMarcus Aldridge, Trey Lyles and Bryn Forbes all out. With those three off the floor this season, DeMar DeRozan sees the largest per-minute boost, but the minutes needed from Jakob Poeltl make him an obvious play tonight. With those three off the floor, Poeltl is averaging a little more than a fantasy point per minute, and he is currently projected for 25 minutes. While Gregg Popovich can mess with us tonight, Poeltl seems to be a safe play.
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NBA DFS Picks: Bust Candidates
Kemba Walker vs Bucks: DraftKings: PG, $7,100, 97.5% Bust | FanDuel: PG, $6,200, 84.1% Bust
This is an obvious bust spot, so don’t just look at names and price and feel it’s a good value. Kemba Walker is expected to play only 18-20 minutes tonight, and his price is too high given this minutes restriction.
Jusuf Nurkic vs Grizzlies: DraftKings: C, $5,900, 74.8% Bust | FanDuel: C, $7,200, 82.4% Bust
After a gruesome leg injury, the NBA break was good for Jusuf Nurkic, and he is ready to make his debut tonight. While he’s at least in play on DraftKings, splitting time with Hassan Whiteside is already a risk, and the fact that he hasn’t played a game in over a year is the cherry on top. With plenty of cheaper center options that have guaranteed minutes, you probably don’t need to go to Nurkic.
Tim Hardaway Jr. vs Rockets: DraftKings: SG/SF, $6,300, 76.9% Bust | FanDuel: SF, $5,800, 55.7% Bust
Tim Hardaway Jr. is a volatile player that has benefited from the health of his teammates, with Doncic, Kristaps Porzingis and Seth Curry all missing games this season. Tonight, all three are healthy and will start alongside Hardaway. When sharing the floor with these three teammates, Hardaway has a 15.7% usage (-3.9%). In this scenario, he averaged 0.72 DraftKings points and 0.65 FanDuel points per minute. This puts him on the bust radar.
Related NBA DFS Content
- Awesemo YouTube Channel — NBA DFS Strategy Show
- NBA DFS Pick 5: Damien’s Top DraftKings + FanDuel Plays for 7/31/20
- NBA DFS Restart Special
- DFS Review: Studying Five- and Six-Game Slates
- NBA Rankings from Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker (PREMIUM)
- NBA DFS Projections from Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker (PREMIUM)
- Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker’s NBA Ownership Projections
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