NBA playoff action is underway and there is NBA DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Greg Ehrenberg looks at some NBA DFS Picks to build around and fade for Tuesday’s slate.
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NBA DFS Picks: Values + Fades for August 18th
Value Pick: Goran Dragic
DraftKings $4,400, FanDuel $5,700, Yahoo $21
It is a bit tough to find value on FanDuel today. At first glance, there isn’t much pricing value unless we see some players ruled out during the day. At the moment, that doesn’t seem overly likely. On DraftKings, the pricing is nowhere near as tight. Of all the mispriced players, Dragic stands out the most. It’s hard to see the logic in a $4,400 price tag for Dragic, which is his lowest salary of the season. The only other time his price got below $5,000, it was against this same Pacers’ team and he scored 33.5 DraftKings points.
Even though the Heat are finally healthy with Dragic, Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro all available in the backcourt, this shouldn’t crush Dragic’s value. Even if he doesn’t start, his production off the bench is fantastic. As a starter, Dragic averages 29.25 DraftKings points and as a reserve, he averages 29.37 DraftKings points. Whether starting or coming off the bench, don’t let this impact your decision making. Based on what we have seen this season, a change in roles doesn’t change Dragic’s production and he’s too cheap on DraftKings.
Stud Pick: James Harden
DraftKings $11,700, FanDuel $6,000, Yahoo $55
We have a ridiculous amount of studs to chose from today. In addition to Harden, we have to choose from Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, LeBron James and Damian Lillard. Of this group, the reason I lean towards Harden is because of the absence of Russell Westbrook. Dealing with a quad injury, Russ is out for this game and potentially the entire first round of the playoffs. Houston is going to have to lean heavily on Harden until Westbrook returns. If Harden doesn’t put up a massive game, it stands to reason that the Rockets will come out of Game 1 down in the series.
Harden rarely posts bad fantasy scores in games without Westbrook. This is nothing new for him and even in recent bubble games that didn’t matter, he posted gaudy stat lines. Last year, he also went off whenever Chris Paul was unable to play and now he faces his former teammate. With Westbrook off the court, Harden becomes even more of a fantasy monster than usual. His usage rating spikes to 43.4% and he scores 65.94 DraftKings points per 36 minutes. Due to the magnitude of the game, I think it’s likely we see 40 or more minutes from Harden. If this is the case, I expect him to score 70 or more fantasy points.
Fade Pick: Jusuf Nurkic
DraftKings $9,100, FanDuel $8,400, Yahoo $38
I love Nurkic and can’t believe how well he is playing after a year off because of a devastating leg injury. The issue I have with him is the pricing and the abundance of high priced options on today’s slate. The opportunity cost of rostering Nurkic is too steep of a price for me to pay. Due to his high salary, rostering Nurk likely means not playing some of the other studs on this slate. We also have to consider the strength of the Lakers’ defense. Los Angeles finished the season with the top defensive efficiency in the Western Conference and have plenty of size to throw at Nurkic. Between Anthony Davis, Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee, the Lakers have the personnel to keep Nurk in check.
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