This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Be sure to catch the Awesemo NBA Daily Fantasy Strategy Show every morning on our Awesemo YouTube Channel to find the best NBA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel!
Following in Adam Scherer’s footsteps, I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 6 p.m. EST. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up to lock on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
Note: The format of this article has been changed to position-by-position. Love this modification, as the Deeper Dive show covers the game-by-game breakdown later in the day with the most updated news available.
Update (5:43 p.m. EST): Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis are OUT. Fire up Jalen Brunson, Trey Burke, Josh Richardson, Tim Hardaway Jr. without hesitation. Kleber gets an upgrade, and we’ll have to see what that starting lineup looks like to consider any of the other Mavs bigs. But this is obviously slate-altering news; tune into the Live Before Lock at the Awesemo YouTube channel for updated information.
NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | March 11
Point Guard
James Harden ($11,000 DraftKings/$11,500 FanDuel) has played minutes into the 40’s in four of the Nets past six. It shouldn’t be too surprising that he’s producing at an outrageous rate with Kevin Durant off the floor: 29.5% usage, 1.53 DraftKings points per minute on the year (1.62 over the past month), and most eye-popping to me, a 43.9% assist rate. While the ceiling is unquestioned, this is slate we need to be selective with our spend-ups. On FanDuel where he’s shooting-guard only and the only other option $8,000-or-above is Zach LaVine, we’d normally be more inclined to prioritize him. But there’s a number of other mispriced plays at the position, making him fall to projected ownership below 15%. That’s why he’s garnering slightly more ownership on DraftKings (19%), where I’ll be more inclined to roster him due to the double-double and triple-double bonuses.
Luka Doncic ($10,800 DraftKings/$10,400 FanDuel) had a one-game stint at the small forward position on FanDuel. He’s back at point guard over there today and projects out as the best raw points scorer amongst the group. Similar to Harden, he boasts an outrageous 43.4% assist rate on the year along with a 35.2% usage. The back-to-back for the Mavericks doesn’t concern me, but seeing the second-lowest total on the board for this game at 218.5 does. I’ll reiterate that we’ll have to be selective about where to spend up on this slate, but getting to any amount of a sub-20% owned Doncic with the ceiling he carries in any spot is never a mistake.
Damian Lillard ($10,700 DraftKings/$10,000 FanDuel) torched Sacramento for 61.75 DraftKings in the last game before the All-Star break. While this Suns team is a much more capable defensive opposition than the Kings — and play at the second-slowest pace in the league — we’re still getting a discount on his rates with C.J. McCollum off the floor this season: 34.2% usage, 39.0% assist rate, 1.43 DraftKings points per minute. At least one of these $10,000-plus point guards is going to have a massive game, and Lillard could certainly be one of them.
Kyrie Irving ($9,600 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) gives you a nice discount off Harden, albeit with a much lower assist percentage (24.3%). But his 31.7% usage with Harden off the floor surpasses that of Harden, and his consistency to run for 36-plus minutes in competitive games makes him a sneaky-good option relative to other plays at the position. The Nets have been in multiple blowout games that make Irving’s minutes look shakier than they are, so I’m happy to get over the field on him against his former team. Marcus Smart returns tonight to bolster the Celtics’ perimeter defense, but I doubt he’ll be capable of extended run past the mid-20’s first game back from a calf injury.
Kyle Lowry ($8,600 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) is rightfully expected to be one of the highest-owned plays on this slate. The Raptors are once again severely short-handed, and without Fred VanVleet and perhaps Terence Davis this evening, Lowry could be the only ball-handler in the lineup. Alex currently has him pegged for 34.5 minutes tonight, which I feel is conservative considering the 35 he received in a blowout loss to the Pistons and 40 he got versus the Celtics in the Raptors’ final two games before the All-Star game. I suppose if you gave him any more, he’d show up in nearly every lineup, which I wouldn’t want. But while I’m wary of too much Lowry in large-field tournaments with so many other elite point guard options at fraction of the ownership, he’s still a cash lock on both sites.
Elfrid Payton ($5,600 DraftKings/$4,900 FanDuel) feels like a weird play to recommend on an 11-game slate. He’s currently projected for less than 1% ownership in a massive pace-up spot against the Bucks who are fifth in pace this season with 101.75 possessions per game, which feels like a mistake by the field. In his first game back from a hamstring injury, Tom Thibodeau did Tom Thibodeau things and ran his starting point guard out there for 35 minutes. That makes it three consecutive games of 30-or-more minutes for Payton, the first two of which actually had Derrick Rose (who is out tonight) in the lineup. It won’t take much of Payton to give you leverage on the field in your NBA DFS lineups, plus I think his minutes are substantially more secure than the public believes them to be. Massive opportunity-cost at the position, but on FanDuel especially I’m going to get there.
Other DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: John Wall ($8,200), Chris Paul ($7,800 if Devin Booker is out)
Other FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: De’Aaron Fox ($8,500), Ricky Rubio ($4,700), Shake Milton ($4,200)
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Shooting Guard
Zach LaVine ($9,700 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel) has been on a torrid pace shooting the ball in 2021. Since Jan. 1, LaVine sports a silly 66.5% true shooting percentage, an astounding number for a volume-based scorer. I’ve been banking on regression for some time, but it just hasn’t been there. So on a site like FanDuel where you have to play two shooting guards, his scoring ceiling alone makes for a fantastic low-owned option on this slate. Also, the 76ers will be without Ben Simmons or Joel Embiid tonight. That cripples their normally stout defensive front, opening up ample opportunity for LaVine to do his thing.
Paul George ($8,500 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) shattered my hopes and dreams with his late-scratch last Thursday. His price tag remained at the absurdly-low number of $7,800 for today which should make him one of the more popular options over there again. But even on DraftKings, he’s got ownership approaching 20% because it’s that good of a spot. The Warriors are playing at the second-fastest pace in the Association this season, and with 38 and 39 minutes his last two games, George is an elite option with his 1.27 DraftKings points per minute rate.
Victor Oladipo ($8,200 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) is reportedly on the trade block after turning down a two-year, $45-million dollar deal with the Rockets. That could mean a showcase game against the league’s worst defensive team in the Sacramento Kings. Just how bad are they in that category? Their defensive rating of 119.1 is a massive 2.8 points higher than the next-worst team in the Pelicans. If Eric Gordon joins the heap of Rockets bodies that are out tonight, Oladipo and Wall could have full offensive reign in a dream spot.
Seth Curry ($5,200 DraftKings/$4,200 FanDuel) and the rest of these Sixers guards will garner some massive ownership tonight with Simmons and Embiid out for COVID protocols. While some of the other options will be predicated on them cracking the starting lineup, Curry is already a lock to be in it. There’s so much usage and offensive opportunity to replace in this situation that it’s not even a question of rates, but who will be on the court. Curry has eclipsed 34 minutes played in eight of his past 10 games, meaning Curry is unequivocally the safest bet on the board. Be wary of the ownership on DraftKings, however; the Boom/Bust tool at Awesemo pegs him in the optimal lineup just 8.7% of the time. At his current projection of over 20% there, I’d make a case for pivoting to other starters in the Sixers backcourt.
Jaylen Nowell ($3,900 DraftKings/$3,600 FanDuel) is the sort of value I’m hoping disappears from my player pool as we approach lock. But barring other news, I find it impossible to ignore him and some of this other Timberwolves value. The Pelicans have the second-worst defensive rating in the league, and the 238 total for this game is the highest on the slate. With Malik Beasley and D’Angelo Russell continuing to be out, there’s minutes to be had in this backcourt. Nowell and Rubio split point guard duties right down the middle of late, albeit in multiple blowouts. But you could do worse than a 0.85 fantasy point per minute player if you need to savings to jam in some top-tier studs.
Other DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Anthony Edwards ($6,700), Eric Bledsoe ($5,600)
Other FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7,900), Terrence Ross ($5,700), Furkan Korkmaz ($3,500 if he starts)
Small Forward
Jimmy Butler ($9,500 DraftKings/$9,600 FanDuel) is finally garnering the attention he deserves for the rates he puts up with Bam Adebayo off the floor. While it looks like a far from enticing matchup against the Magic as evidenced by the slate-low 211 total, no doubt Butler stands out as the best piece from this game to target. Butler is an outrageous 1.41 DraftKings point per minute producer over the past month, and that actually bumps up to 1.53 without Adebayo. If you’re paying up at small forward, he’s the priority.
Kawhi Leonard ($8,900 DraftKings/$9,300 FanDuel) makes for another great small forward spend against a Warriors team that ranks second in pace this season. He’s still slightly outpacing George in production as a 1.28 DraftKings points per minute producer over the last month (George 1.26). This game provides feels almost too clear-cut to me: plug-and-play George or Leonard, then move on with your day.
Brandon Ingram ($8,400 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) is barely showing up for me on DraftKings but makes for an elite play on FanDuel at his reduced $7,700 tag. Alex Baker’s ownership projections currently list Ingram as the highest-owned small forward over there (28%), but who can argue with that in a matchup with the league’s third-fastest paced team in the Timberwolves? This game should be flying, and while I’m cautiously-optimistic we can extract value from the Timberwolves side of the ball, too, the studs from this game are a priority for me.
Norman Powell ($7,200 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) carries some major sticker shock to those who have been playing NBA DFS for years. Hard to argue with it in this spot with the myriad of absences for the Raptors. He’s coming off three consecutive outings of at least 39 DraftKings points and should have no issues getting all the offensive looks and opportunities he wants. On DraftKings he’s appearing in the optimal lineup 15% of the time and is right around that in ownership; I won’t argue with a slightly over- or underweight approach depending on your taste level for the scoring-dependent small forward.
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($3,500 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) feels wrong to be writing up. But with minutes elevated up to 20 minutes in his second game back from a fractured kneecap, he makes for a serviceable punt if you need it. He displayed substantially scoring upside in his time with the Kings, so scoring 20 real points isn’t out of the question for Bogdanovic in this spot against a depleted Toronto team.
Other DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jaylen Brown ($8,100), Jaden McDaniels ($3,400), Kevin Porter Jr. ($3,200)
Other FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Khris Middleton ($7,600), R.J. Barrett ($5,800), Stanley Johnson ($3,500)
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,100 DraftKings/$11,300 FanDuel) faces a Knicks team playing at the slowest pace in the league. That shouldn’t ever discourage you from capturing the absurdity that is Giannis’ fantasy basketball capabilities; over the past month, Giannis is seeing his minutes extended well into the 30’s, complimented by a 1.75 DraftKings points per minute. Depending on what value opens up as we approach lock, I will prioritize getting to as much of Giannis as possible.
Julius Randle ($9,800 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel) only played 13 minutes in the All-Star game. Perhaps that’s because Tom Thibodeau has been running up the odometer on Randle’s knees through the first half of the season, as he’s second in minutes played per game (36.7). While this game isn’t nearly as enticing for the Bucks side of the ball, the 222.5 total for the Knicks is one of their larger numbers for the season. If this game stays close, Randle will have to be a big reason why. I advocate for runbacks often, but in this situation, pairing Randle with Giannis or Middleton and hoping the game stays in check makes a ton of sense to me.
Kristaps Porzingis ($8,500 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) is tough to get to on DraftKings but provides elite levels of production at only a $7,700 salary on FanDuel. He’s played two other back-to-backs this season, so I’m not terribly concerned for him to get his minutes limited. It’s laughable imagining anyone on the Thunder trying to guard either him or Doncic tonight.
Tobias Harris ($8,100 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) will be by far the highest-owned player on the FanDuel main slate, and rightfully so. I’m still getting to a bunch of him on DraftKings as his 1.4 fantasy point per minute rate with Embiid and Simmons off the floor makes him similar to the $10,000 studs without the $10,000 price tag. He’s going over-owned on FanDuel relative to Awesemo’s boom/bust probability for him, but you’d be foolish not to have a hefty amount of Harris tonight. First player in for cash games.
Kelly Olynyk 6($5,100 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) is power forward eligible on DraftKings, making him far more viable at the $5,100 price tag. On FanDuel he’s currently the second-highest owned center. But considering the 35-minute, 40.5-fantasy point performance he put up before the break that was also sans Adebayo, it’s understandable. Do I expect the shooting to match what it did against the Pelicans? Of course not, but he’s still a great play at his projected workload.
Stanley Johnson ($3,500 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) snuck his way into the starting lineup for the Raptors in their last game before the break. He saw 36 minutes in that outing, which alone makes him viable at a $3,500 salary on both sites. He’s fine for me at small forward only on FanDuel, but utilizing a power forward spot on him for DraftKings feels more optimal considering how overpriced the top-end plays at the position are over there.
Other DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Marcus Morris ($4,000), Jake Layman ($3,300)
Other FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Zion Williamson ($9,000), Jayson Tatum ($8,900), Jerami Grant ($7,700)
Center
Nikola Vucevic ($10,400 DraftKings/$9,900 FanDuel) is in an interesting spot on this slate. I expect punting center to be the popular play on FanDuel, but Vucevic has proven his ceiling even if Aaron Gordon were to return tonight. He’s a 1.5 DraftKings point per minute producer over the past month and provides an elite ceiling with minutes security at the position. Not secure at these tags by any means, but someone I’d be willing to take some shots on in large-field tournaments.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,000 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel) has been a victim of blowouts of late. But without Beasley or Russell on the floor this season, if a game could ever stay close he will be the main beneficiary. Similar to my standpoint on running back plays in the Bucks — Knicks matchup, I like pairing Towns with one of Ingram or Williamson. If he could see mid-30’s minutes just once, Towns has the ability to break the slate.
Chris Boucher ($6,500 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) is center-only on DraftKings and power forward eligible on FanDuel. He’s a fantastic play on either site, as the Raptors are depleted and thereby forced to play Boucher extended minutes. He saw 35 minutes against the Celtics in their last game before break and actually played alongside fellow center Aron Baynes as opposed to simply backing him up. He’s the highest DraftKings points per minute player on this team when it’s fully-healthy (1.21), so there’s untapped potential in his recent box scores with the number of absences for Toronto.
Dwight Howard ($5,300 DraftKings/$3,800 FanDuel) got an appropriate bump by DraftKings with the news of Embiid’s absence for tonight. FanDuel must have missed the news, however, throwing a wrench into the center position. He’s projected north of 30% ownership right now, which makes for an uncomfortable fade. While he’d be a lock to be my cash game center on FanDuel, consider taking shots elsewhere at the position.
Other DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Richaun Holmes ($6,500), Serge Ibaka ($4,600)
Other FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Justin Patton ($4,000), Aron Baynes ($3,900)
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