This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and I from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
If you have any questions after reading the article, always feel free to DM me in Slack.
Note: This article takes a very long time to write, especially on slates with a lot of games. In order to get information out earlier in the day, I will post the first few games and then update with the remaining games as I write them on bigger slates. Be sure to check back for updates throughout the afternoon.
[DAYTONA]
NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | Feb. 10
Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards (+5.5): 232
Toronto Raptors
O.G. Anunoby is questionable tonight. If he plays, Norman Powell will most likely return to the bench.
Kyle Lowry left Toronto’s last game after about 8 minutes, but he isn’t on the injury report tonight. It seems like his early exit may have broken the pricing algorithms as he is significantly less expensive than Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam. Lowry has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute this season and will typically play 35-plus minutes in competitive games. While VanVleet and Siakam have averaged 1.14 and 1.12 DraftKings points per minute, there is no reason for them to be so much more expensive than Lowry.
VanVleet and Siakam are both strong options in a great matchup against the Wizards. Like Lowry, they can each be expected to play 35-plus minutes if this game is competitive. Washington is fifth in pace and 26th in defensive rating over the last month as they continue to be one of the fastest teams and least efficient defenses in the league.
This matchup also sets up very nicely for Chris Boucher, who has seemingly gotten back into Nick Nurse’s good graces. Boucher’s playing time has been inconsistent this season, but he has played at least 27 minutes in three straight games. The Wizards don’t have a high-usage center that would be likely to force Boucher off the floor, so I expect him to play a big role in this game as long as he doesn’t play extremely poorly — which is unlikely given how bad the Wizards are defensively. Boucher has averaged 1.24 DraftKings points per minute this season and I expect 26 to 30 minutes from him tonight.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kyle Lowry ($7,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kyle Lowry ($7,600), Chris Boucher ($6,000)
Washington Wizards
Russell Westbrook sat out of Washington’s last game but he will be back tonight to face Toronto. Thomas Bryant is the only player on Washington’s injury report, and he is out for the season, so Washington is essentially at full strength tonight.
Westbrook remains reasonably priced on FanDuel and extremely underpriced on DraftKings. He has averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute this season and 1.42 DraftKings points per minute in six games since returning from injury. His DFS performances have been hurt recently by blowouts, but the per-minute production is still there and I will be going right back to him tonight.
Bradley Beal is also favorably priced on DraftKings but he is overpriced on FanDuel. Beal has averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute with a 36.9 percent usage rate in 14 games played with Westbrook this season. His usage rate without Westbrook is 37.8 percent, so he hasn’t seen much of a decrease in usage when Westbrook plays this season. Where his production has been hurt is assists. Beal has averaged 6.7 assists per game without Westbrook this season compared to 3.5 assists per game when Westbrook plays. The lack of assists makes Beal a riskier option since a lack of peripherals makes us need him to have a big scoring night in order to perform at a high level in DFS.
Davis Bertans started and played 37.8 minutes against the Bulls last game while Rui Hachimura played 36.3 minutes. It is difficult to trust either player since Beal and Westbrook dominate usage on this team, but they are both relatively inexpensive for their potential playing time. Bertans has averaged 0.72 DraftKings points per minute this season and Hachimura has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute.
Somewhat surprisingly, the Wizards played Alex Len and Robin Lopez for a combined 48 minutes against the Bulls’ small frontcourt last game. It’s impossible to trust Scott Brooks’ center rotation right now, but Len and Lopez are both low-floor options with decent ceilings for their salaries. Len has averaged 1.16 DraftKings points per minute in 156 minutes with Washington this season and has averaged about 1 DraftKings point per minute for his career. Lopez has averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook ($8,400), Bradley Beal ($9,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook ($9,700), Rui Hachimura ($5,300), Davis Bertans ($4,200)
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Atlanta Hawks at Dallas Mavericks (-3.5): 232
Atlanta Hawks
De’Andre Hunter is out again tonight, and he will be joined by Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kris Dunn and Rajon Rondo.
The Hawks look like a team that will have a lot of appeal in tournaments tonight because they are slightly overpriced but have a lot of upside in a game with a 232 total. Trae Young is at one of the highest prices that we’ve seen in a while. He has averaged 1.35 DraftKings points per minute with a 33.1 percent usage rate and 41.9 percent assist rate this season so he can certainly justify his salary, it just isn’t the most likely outcome. The same can be said for Clint Capela. I love Capela’s ceiling against a Dallas team that has allowed the fifth most total rebounds per game over the last month. He has been excellent this season with 1.32 DraftKings points per minute. The issue for Capela is that we can’t rely on him to play more than 30 minutes tonight. He has averaged 31.4 minutes per game over the last month (13 games) and hasn’t exceeded 30 minutes in any of his last six games.
John Collins can also benefit from Dallas’s poor rebounding, but he doesn’t get as many center minutes when Onyeka Okongwu is active like he is tonight. Collins has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute this season and 33.7 minutes per game over the last month. Like Young and Capela, he looks correctly priced on DraftKings. He is a little bit more favorably priced on FanDuel.
Kevin Huerter played 36.7 minutes against Toronto last game and he has averaged 37.6 minutes per game in five games without Hunter this season. Huerter has averaged 0.81 DraftKings points per minute this season, so there is some value here if he gets 36-plus minutes again tonight.
Danilo Gallinari played 24.6 minutes last game, which is the most minutes that he has played in a game this season. Gallinari is a productive per-minute player in DFS, so that is an interesting development. He has averaged 0.82 DraftKings points per minute this season and he averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute with Oklahoma City last season. At only $3,800 with small forward eligibility, he looks like a strong value on FanDuel in particular.
In summary, I think there are a lot of players on Atlanta that have a clear path to a big game assuming this game is as high scoring as expected. There aren’t many, if any, priorities here, however, because there are better prices on other players on this slate — especially on DraftKings.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Trae Young ($9,900)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: John Collins ($7,000), Kevin Huerter ($5,000), Danilo Gallinari ($3,800)
Dallas Mavericks
Luka Doncic had a rough game against Minnesota his last time out, but that has no impact on tonight. Doncic is one of the top pay-up options, as always. He has averaged 1.57 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 35.4 percent usage rate, 45.4 percent assist rate and 13.4 percent rebounding rate. He has also averaged 35.6 minutes per game in 16 games over the last month. Atlanta is a middle of the road matchup in terms of pace and defensive efficiency, but Doncic is close to matchup-proof given how well he contributes in every category.
Kristaps Porzingis had a monster performance against Minnesota thanks in part to 5 blocks. He played about 31 minutes in that game and has averaged 30.4 minutes in 14 games over the last month. He is sometimes allowed to play 33 or 34 minutes so there is upside for more, but the best estimate is that we get another 30 or 31 minutes from Porzingis. He has averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 27.0 percent usage rates and team-leading 15.1 percent rebounding rate. He also served as the back-up center against Minnesota, which is a good sign for his value going forward.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic ($10,800)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Luka Doncic ($10,900), Kristaps Porzingis ($8,700)
Indiana Pacers at Brooklyn Nets (-1.5): 235
Indiana Pacers
The Nets have been the least efficient defense in the NBA over the last month and the Pacers are tonight’s beneficiary.
Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon stand out as two of the best mid-range values on the slate. Sabonis has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute and 35.2 minutes per game in 15 minutes without Victor Oladipo this season while Brogdon has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute and 34.6 minutes per game in those games. The combination of playing time, per-minute production, price point and matchup is difficult to beat on this slate.
Myles Turner is another high-upside option from the Pacers. He has averaged 32.5 minutes per game over the last month, but he hasn’t topped 32 minutes in any of his last five games. While the reduced playing time is a concern, the matchup is great and Turner has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute this season. He has also averaged 5.4 blocks per 100 possessions, which increases his volatility since blocks are less predictable than other stats. Increased volatility is typically not desirable in cash games but can be a great thing in tournaments.
Jeremy Lamb has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute and 25 minutes per game in his seven starts this season. Like Turner, he looks more like a tournament option than a cash option since we can’t rely on him to play big minutes. The matchup is excellent, however, and Lamb is inexpensive so it’s not difficult to see how he could exceed his salary tonight.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Malcolm Brogdon ($7,400), Domantas Sabonis ($8,600), Myles Turner ($6,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Domantas Sabonis ($9,300), Malcolm Brogdon ($7,200), Myles Turner ($6,800)
Brooklyn Nets
We don’t have an injury report since the Nets played last night. The last report that I saw was that Kevin Durant is expected to return on Friday, so I assume he is out again tonight unless I hear otherwise. For now, I’m assuming the Nets will have the same players available tonight that they had last night.
Kyrie Irving played 35.4 minutes against Detroit last night while James Harden played 39.4 minutes. Based on their rates alongside each other and the rate of the time that I expect them to play without the other one on the floor, each player projects for about 1.33 DraftKings points per minute on average. Harden could play a couple more minutes as he did last night, but both players should see at least 35 minutes. Irving is more favorably priced, but both players are strong options in tournaments.
Nothing else looks interesting from the Nets unless one of Irving or Harden misses tonight’s game.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kyrie Irving ($9,100), James Harden ($10,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kyrie Irving ($9,500), James Harden ($10,600)
Charlotte Hornets at Memphis Grizzlies (-4): 224.5
Charlotte Hornets
Devonte’ Graham is out again for Charlotte so we will once again get a starting backcourt of LaMelo Ball and Terry Rozier.
Ball has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute and 34.3 minutes per game in his five starts this season. He has a 27.3 percent usage rate, 9.5 percent rebounding rate and 29.4 percent assist rate so his rates haven’t been impacted much by his move to the starting lineup but his playing time has increased as expected. There is some sticker shock on Ball, but there is no denying that he has a massive ceiling and has been excellent so far in his rookie season.
Rozier has played 242 minutes alongside Gordon Hayward without Graham on the floor this season. He has averaged 1.03 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.1 percent usage rate and 13.7 percent assist rate in those minutes and I think that we should expect similar production tonight against Memphis. Rozier is likely to play 33 to 35 minutes if tonight’s game is competitive.
The rest of Charlotte’s starters, Hayward, P.J. Washington and Cody Zeller look like secondary tournament options tonight. Hayward leads the team with 36.3 minutes per game over the last month and he has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute in 242 minutes alongside Rozier without Graham on the floor this season. Washington has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute and is likely to play about 30 minutes tonight while Zeller has averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute and 27.5 minutes per game in his nine starts this season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: LaMelo Ball ($8,500), Terry Rozier ($6,200), P.J. Washington ($5,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: LaMelo Ball ($8,200), Gordon Hayward ($7,500), Terry Rozier ($6,100), Cody Zeller ($5,200)
Memphis Grizzlies
Brandon Clarke and De’Anthony Melton are both out again tonight. Desmond Bane started in place of Clarke and played 26.1 minutes on Monday.
We finally saw Memphis play their starters for normal starter minutes last game and hopefully that continues going forward. Ja Morant played 36.7 minutes against Toronto and he is underpriced if he plays that many minutes again. Obviously we can’t start expecting 37 minutes per game from Morant, but I feel more comfortable expecting at least 32 or 33 minutes now that I know there is the potential for more. He has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute this season and he is available at a reduced salary because of his relatively limited playing time of late. Similarly, Jonas Valanciunas returned to the starting lineup and played 33.1 minutes against Toronto. Valanciunas has been the most productive per-minute producer on the Grizzlies this season with 1.29 DraftKings points per minute. It is more likely that we get 28 to 30 minutes from Valanciunas than another 33 minutes, but that’s enough to give him tournament upside.
Dillon Brooks played 36.9 minutes against Toronto and Kyle Anderson played 32.5 minutes. Brooks is a scoring dependent player who has averaged 0.94 DraftKings points per minute this season with a 26.3 percent usage rate. The Hornets have allowed the most 3-point attempts per game over the last month, which sets up nicely for Brooks who leads the Grizzlies with 5.7 3-point attempts per game over that time. Anderson could benefit from Clarke’s absence as he gets to move back to the power forward position where he started the season. He has a 13.3 percent total rebounding rate in 155 minutes alongside Valanciunas without Clarke on the floor compared to a 10.0 percent total rebounding rate in 122 minutes alongside both of Clarke and Valanciunas.
Bane’s increased playing time is nice, but he still doesn’t stand out as a top option tonight. He has averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute in 131 minutes alongside Morant this season. If we get 26 to 28 minutes from him tonight, he projects as a decent point-per-dollar value with a limited ceiling as he only has a 14.3 percent usage rate in his time alongside Morant.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Ja Morant ($7,300), Jonas Valanciunas ($7,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Ja Morant ($7,100), Jonas Valanciunas ($7,200), Dillon Brooks ($5,200), Kyle Anderson ($5,700)
Los Angeles Clippers at Minnesota Timberwolves (+10.5): 223.5
Los Angeles Clippers
Patrick Beverley is questionable and Paul George is out. If Beverley plays, it will most likely push Reggie Jackson back to the bench.
Kawhi Leonard has been relatively disappointing in three games without George this season. He has averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute compared to his season average of 1.33 DraftKings points per minute. He has averaged 36.3 minutes per game without George, however, so that alone increases his projection. Leonard has also averaged 1.60 DraftKings points per minute in 23 games without George since last season, so there is a good chance that his production improves this season as the sample size without George gets larger. A fantastic matchup against the Timberwolves is likely to help as well.
One of the centers is likely to have a good game tonight. The hard part is guessing which one. Serge Ibaka has averaged 23.9 minutes per game over the last month while Ivica Zubac has averaged 20.6 minutes per game. Ibaka played 20.2 minutes against Sacramento last game and Zubac played 26.9 minutes off the bench. In the three games without George, Zubac has averaged 21.1 minutes per game and Ibaka has averaged 25.6 minutes per game. The main takeaway is that they are combining for more minutes with George out, so there is a better chance that one of them gives us a good game. Ibaka has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute this season and Zubac has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute. Ibaka is my preference between the two since they are similarly priced and Ibaka will get the first chance to play well against Minnesota’s weak frontcourt. Ibaka is also a power forward on FanDuel, which makes him much easier to roster.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard ($9,400), Serge Ibaka ($5,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Kawhi Leonard ($9,700), Serge Ibaka ($5,700)
Minnesota Timberwolves
Update: Karl-Anthony Towns is expected to play. I haven’t seen anything on how many minutes, but the most recent reports about his return were that he was being held out for conditioning purposes so I wouldn’t be surprised if he is limited. I don’t think he’s a great DFS option, but I do think his return makes everyone else less appealing than they already were.
Jarrett Culver is out, Karl-Anthony Towns is doubtful and D’Angelo Russell is questionable. Russell has been questionable and played in most games recently, but he did leave Minnesota’s last game after one rotation so this is probably a legitimate “Q” tag. If he sits, Ricky Rubio would most likely start with Malik Beasley and Anthony Edwards taking on increased scoring roles.
If Russell plays, it’s difficult to get excited about anything from the Timberwolves. Russell’s salary is reasonable for a player with a 30.1 percent usage rate and 30.0 percent assist rate in games without Towns this season, but it’s difficult to prioritize him since he has only averaged 27.6 minutes per game in those 16 games. With guards like Morant and Brogdon at similar salaries, Russell is only a secondary option.
Beasley has averaged 1.12 DraftKings points per minute with a 27.8 percent usage rate and 31.4 minutes per game in four games without either of Towns or Russell this season. Edwards has averaged 1.15 DraftKings points per minute with a 28.1 percent usage rate and 27.8 minutes per game in those four games. Rubio has averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute and 25 minutes per game in the four games he has played without Towns or Russell. One other note is that Jordan McLaughlin did not serve as the back-up point guard once Russell left Minnesota’s last game. Edwards filled the role which makes him more valuable and also, obviously, takes McLaughlin out of play.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: None
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Ricky Rubio ($5,000 if Russell is out)
Cleveland Cavaliers at Denver Nuggets (-9.5): 219
Cleveland Cavaliers
Kevin Love and Larry Nance Jr. are out for Cleveland. Jarrett Allen moved into the starting lineup alongside Andre Drummond last game, leading to increased playing time for both of them.
Allen started alongside Drummond last game and played 34 minutes while Drummond played 35.9 minutes. This is an excellent development for both of them as it makes their playing time much more secure. One interesting and surprising note from Cleveland’s rotation in that game is that Allen wasn’t the back-up center. JaVale McGee returned to the rotation and played 8.5 minutes off the bench. I would prefer that Allen and Drummond have their minutes staggered, but they are underpriced for their increased playing time regardless. Drummond and Allen have played 62 minutes alongside each other so far. Drummond has averaged 1.31 DraftKings points per minute and Allen has averaged 0.75 DraftKings points per minute. It’s not surprising that both of them have seen a decrease in per-minute production and that Drummond is the alpha of the two. We’ll have to see if their production changes going forward, but my expectation is that the new starting lineup is a net positive for both of them as their average playing time will increase but some of those gains will be offset by reduced per-minute production.
Collin Sexton is fairly priced for someone likely to play 34-plus minutes who has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute this season, but he doesn’t stand out amongst the other guard options on this slate. I’m also interested to see how the new starting lineup affects him as I’m not particularly bullish about a guard who averages 17.2 drives per game playing alongside a jumbo frontcourt.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Andre Drummond ($8,300)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Andre Drummond ($7,700)
Denver Nuggets
Gary Harris and P.J. Dozier are both out again for the Nuggets. Michael Porter Jr. has started the last couple of games in Harris’s place and I expect that to be the case again tonight.
Nikola Jokic is the focal point for Denver as always. It’s tough to pay all the way up at center tonight given the depth of the position, but that should keep Jokic’s ownership reasonable. He leads the Nuggets with 36.4 minutes per game over the last month and he also leads the team in usage rate (31.6), assist rate (37.9), rebounding rate (18.7) and DraftKings points per minute (1.61) this season.
Jamal Murray, Will Barton and Porter all offer tournament upside at their salaries, but they don’t stand out as top options. Murray has been hurt by Jokic’s increased playing time this season as he has only averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute and his usage and assist rates are down from last year. Barton played 38.7 minutes against Milwaukee last game and he has averaged 36.3 minutes per game with 0.80 DraftKings points per minute in five games without Harris this season. Porter has averaged 1.11 DraftKings points per minute and 29.6 minutes per game in six starts this season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic ($11,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Nikola Jokic ($11,100), Will Barton ($5,400), Michael Porter Jr. ($5,200)
New Orleans Pelicans at Chicago Bulls (+2.5): 230
New Orleans Pelicans
The Pelicans hung 130 points on the Rockets last night and now they get a good matchup against the Bulls. Chicago has improved defensively lately, ranking 13th in defensive rating over the last month, but they are seventh in pace.
Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram are the team leaders in playing time and per-minute production. Williamson has averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute this season and 32.4 minutes per game over the last month while Ingram has averaged 34.8 minutes per game and 1.18 DraftKings points per minute. Neither player is available at a salary that makes them stand out as a top play on the slate, but they both have a high ceiling tonight against the Bulls.
Lonzo Ball, Eric Bledsoe and Steven Adams have all averaged between 28 and 30 minutes per game over the last month. Ball has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute this season while Bledsoe and Adams have both averaged 0.87 DraftKings points per minute.
Josh Hart had a monster game in 40 minutes last night. We shouldn’t expect him to replicate that performance, but he does offer value as a low-owned tournament option. He has averaged 0.84 DraftKings points per minute this season and almost 28 minutes per game over the last month.
Willy Hernangomez is an interesting value option as he has replaced Jaxson Hayes as the Pelicans’ backup center. Hernangomez played 24.7 minutes last night, but we should only expect about 18 minutes in most games. Still, he is near the minimum salary and has always been a productive fantasy player in his career. This season has been no different as he has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in 121 minutes played with New Orleans.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Brandon Ingram ($8,300), Zion Williamson ($8,100), Willy Hernangomez ($3,400)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Zion Williamson ($8,400), Steven Adams ($5,200)
Chicago Bulls
Wendell Carter, Otto Porter and Lauri Markkanen are all out again tonight. Denzel Valentine has been starting in place of Markkanen and Patrick Williams, Garrett Temple, Tomas Satoransky and Thaddeus Young also all benefit from increased playing time without Carter, Markkanen or Porter available.
Zach LaVine has been an excellent fantasy producer this season with 1.26 DraftKings points per minute. He leads the Bulls’ starters in usage rate (29.9) and assist rate (24.5) this season and he also leads the team with 36.3 minutes per game over the last month. The Pelicans have good individual defenders, but they have struggled to defend as a team with the sixth-worst defensive rating in the league over the last month. Coby White is less consistent than LaVine, but he is second on the team with 32.9 minutes per game over the last month and he is second among Chicago’s current starters in usage rate (20..5) and assist rate (22.6) this season. In 192 minutes without any of Carter, Porter or Markkanen on the floor, White has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute while LaVine has averaged 1.53 DraftKings points per minute in 158 minutes without any of them on the floor.
Valentine played 36.6 minutes two starts ago and then 27.8 minutes last game against Washington. I think expecting 28 to 30 minutes is much more reasonable than 36 minutes as Temple and/or Satoransky are going to steal minutes from Valentine more often than not. Still, Valentine has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute this season so he has upside at his current price. The same can be said for Satoransky and Temple, who have averaged 0.91 and 0.69 DraftKings points per minute this season but are less expensive than Valentine.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Zach LaVine ($9,000)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Zach LaVine ($9,300), Coby White ($5,600), Denzel Valentine ($4,400), Patrick Williams ($4,400)
Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers (-12): 216.5
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City will be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, George Hill, Theo Maledon, Mike Muscala, Aleksej Pokusevski, Ty Jerome, Josh Hall, Moses Brown and Trevor Ariza. Isaiah Roby is not on the injury report. The Thunder will once again have eight players tonight.
I expect the starting lineup tonight to be Hamidou Diallo, Luguentz Dort, Darius Bazley, Al Horford and either Kenrich Williams or Roby.
Diallo has averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.7 percent usage rate and 26.9 percent assist rate in 80 minutes without either of Gilgeous-Alexander or Maledon on the floor this season. He is priced up since Oklahoma City has been short-handed for a while, but we should get 35-plus minutes from Diallo tonight.
Horford can be expected to play about 30 minutes and he has averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.2 percent usage rate and 22.4 percent assist rate in 98 minutes without Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor this season.
Whichever of Roby or Williams starts can be projected for a couple extra minutes, but they both are likely to play 30-plus minutes tonight since the Thunder only have eight players and we know they don’t want to play Horford for big minutes. Roby has averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute without Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor this season while Williams has averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute.
Bazley played 37 minutes in regulation against the Lakers on Monday, including the back-up center minutes. That should be the case again tonight. He has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute in 127 minutes without Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor this season.
The matchup against the Lakers is extremely difficult, but several players will have to play big minutes because of the lack of healthy alternatives. Pricing has increased on most players, but there is still upside given how many minutes they will need to play.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Hamidou Diallo ($6,500), Isaiah Roby ($3,700), Al Horford ($6,200)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Hamidou Diallo ($6,500), Al Horford ($6,200), Isaiah Roby ($5,000)
Los Angeles Lakers
LeBron James is probable again. Anthony Davis and Alex Caruso are both questionable after missing the Lakers’ last game.
If Davis plays, he and James are both secondary options in tournaments. Davis has averaged 1.32 DraftKings points per minute in 21 games with James active this season and James has averaged 1.48 DraftKings points per minute in his 21 games with Davis active. If Davis sits, James becomes a stronger option as he has averaged 1.5 DraftKings points per minute and nearly 35 minutes per game in four games without Davis this season.
Markieff Morris started and played 26 minutes without Davis last game as Kyle Kuzma returned to the bench and played 23 minutes. Talen Horton-Tucker played 26.9 minutes last game and would be a decent value option if Davis and Caruso are both out.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James ($10,200), Anthony Davis ($9,500)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: LeBron James ($10,700), Anthony Davis ($9,800)
Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns (+4.5): 226.5
Milwaukee Bucks
Jrue Holiday is out again tonight. Bryn Forbes started in his place on Monday and played 25.6 minutes while D.J. Augustin played 20.6 minutes off the bench.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has averaged 1.60 DraftKings points per minute overall this season. He has averaged 1.58 DraftKings points per minute with a 21.7 percent assist rate in 539 minutes alongside Holiday and 1.65 DraftKings points per minute with a 34.6 percent assist rate in 216 minutes without Holiday on the floor. The Bucks staggered Giannis’ and Khris Middleton‘s minutes last game, so we should expect 35 to 40 percent of Giannis’s minutes to be without Middleton (or Holiday) on the floor tonight. He has averaged 1.69 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.9 percent usage rate, 47.6 percent assist rate and 15.5 percent rebounding rate in 121 minutes without either of them on the floor this season. He has averaged 1.60 DraftKings points per minute in 95 minutes alongside Middleton without Holiday. Holiday’s absence also makes it less likely that the Bucks blowout the Suns, meaning that it is more likely Antetokounmpo plays 34-plus minutes.
Middleton also benefits from Holiday’s absence. He has averaged 1.29 DraftKings points per minute in his 95 minutes alongside Antetokounmpo without Holiday this season and 1.82 DraftKings points per minute in 62 minutes without either of Holiday or Antetokounmpo on the floor. Since the start of last season, Middleton has averaged 1.60 DraftKings points per minute in 544 minutes without Holiday, Antetokounmpo or Bledsoe on the floor. He has a 36.5 percent usage rate and 34 percent assist rate in those minutes. About 40 percent of Middleton’s minutes tonight should be under those conditions.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,600), Khris Middleton ($7,900)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900), Khris Middleton ($7,600)
Phoenix Suns
Chris Paul, Jae Crowder and Abdel Nader are questionable. All three players were out last game. E’Twaun Moore started in place of Paul and played 39.7 minutes. Mikal Bridges played 35.5 minutes and Frank Kaminsky played 28.9 minutes. Cameron Johnson also played 28.2 minutes off the bench. All of those players would have more secure playing time if the trio is out again tonight.
Devin Booker is also a strong option if Paul is out. Paul’s presence has turned him into a scoring dependent player this season but his assist numbers would be expected to increase if Paul misses the game. Booker has averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute in 235 minutes without Paul on the floor this season compared to 0.95 DraftKings points per minute alongside Paul.
Deandre Ayton and Paul would be secondary tournament options if Paul is active. Paul would most likely play 30 to 32 minutes and has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute this season. Ayton would most likely play about 33 minutes and he has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute alongside Paul this season compared to 1.20 DraftKings points per minute without him on the floor.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Devin Booker ($8,100 if Paul is out)
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Devin Booker ($7,700 if Paul is out)
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