This is our primary in-depth NBA DFS article, and it will be free this season. The goal of this article isn’t just to give you a few plays to plug into your lineup, but to dig a little bit deeper into why projections may (or may not) like certain players. Hopefully, after reading this article, you’ll have a better feel for the slate as a whole. Combining the context from this article with the raw data that is available in our Boom/Bust tool, Projections and Ownership Projections should allow you to build strong lineups and make optimal NBA DFS picks for any type of contest on DraftKings and FanDuel.
***Get a SNEAK PEEK with our free premium data, tools and content of the day, the Awesemo Premium NBA DFS Big Board.***
I plan to update this article with notes at the top until about 5 p.m. EST each day. After that, be sure to check out the Deeper Dive show with Loughy and I from 5 to 6 every weekday and Live Before Lock in the hour leading up until lock each day on the Awesemo YouTube channel.
As always, if you have any questions after reading the article, feel free to DM me in Slack.
NBA DFS Deep Dive: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | May 12
Point Guard
Russell Westbrook ($12,400 DraftKings/$12,600 FanDuel) is finally more expensive — but he is still one of the best plays on the slate. It is important to remember that he was drastically underpriced on previous slates, so an increase in salary doesn’t necessarily make him overpriced tonight. The Wizards will once again be without Bradley Beal as they face the Hawks and look to improve their seeding for the play-in tournament. Westbrook has averaged 1.77 DraftKings points per minute in nine games without Beal this season and he leads the NBA over the last month with 39 minutes per game. With his 63-point NBA DFS projection, he’s the No. 1-ranked player in the Awesemo model.
Luka Doncic ($10,800 DraftKings/$10,400 FanDuel) was awful last night but he gets a good bounce-back spot tonight against a short-handed Pelicans team. New Orleans is sixth in pace over the last month. New Orleans is also second in defensive rating over that time, but it’s difficult to think they continue to play well defensively with four of their normal starters sidelined. Doncic has averaged 1.51 DraftKings points per minute in 26 games played without Kristaps Porzingis (questionable) this season and 1.61 DraftKings points per minute in 37 games played with Porzingis.
Trae Young ($9,100 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) started slowly against the Wizards on Monday but he came through with a big second half. He is a strong option again tonight at a relatively inexpensive salary against a fast-paced Wizards team. Washington has been the seventh-most efficient defense over the last month but they also lead the league in pace over that time. Young has averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute and 34.4 minutes per game in 49 games played alongside John Collins and Clint Capela this season.
Dejounte Murray ($7,100 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) always offers upside as a mid-range point guard option thanks to his ability to produce rebounds and assists in addition to scoring. Murray takes on the Brooklyn Nets, who have played at the ninth-fastest pace over the last month. They rank 19th in defensive rating over that time. Murray has played 12 games without Derrick White or LaMarcus Aldridge and with DeMar DeRozan this season. In those games, Murray has produced 1.09 DraftKings points per minute with a 25.3 percent usage rate, 9.3 percent rebounding rate and 30.8 percent assist rate.
D.J. Augustin ($3,900 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel) started another game for Houston his last time out and played 25.5 minutes. We don’t know exactly who will be available for the Rockets tonight, but we do know that Kevin Porter Jr., John Wall, Avery Bradley, Sterling Brown, Dante Exum and Eric Gordon will all be missing from the backcourt. Augustin is likely to start again tonight and we can expect him to play around 26 minutes if the game is competitive. Since joining Houston, Augustin has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute; and he’s a top-5 value play in the Awesemo NBA DFS projections.
Ish Smith ($3,600 DraftKings/$4,200 FanDuel) played 23.1 minutes without Bradley Beal in his last game, which is in line with the rotation that we saw the last time that Beal was out as well. We can expect another 22 to 24 minutes from Smith tonight. He has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points per minute in five games alongside Westbrook without Beal this season.
Payton Pritchard ($3,100 DraftKings/$3,500 FanDuel) will have increased opportunities tonight as the Celtics play without Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart. Walker and Smart combined for 70.9 minutes last night so, even if Pritchard doesn’t start, there should be plenty of minutes available for him. Tremont Waters started the last game that Walker and Smart missed, but Pritchard played 28.6 minutes off the bench compared to Waters’ 24.6 minutes. Pritchard closed over Waters as well. In six total games without Walker and Smart this season, Pritchard has averaged 0.66 DraftKings points per minute and 26.8 minutes per game. We also shouldn’t be overly alarmed by the lack of production in the six games without Walker and Smart because in 372 total minutes alongside Jayson Tatum without Smart, Walker or Brown on the floor, Pritchard has produced 0.88 DraftKings points per minute.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook, Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Payton Pritchard
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Russell Westbrook, Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Payton Pritchard
Shooting Guard
Collin Sexton ($8,400 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) will once again be playing without Darius Garland and a number of other teammates available. Garland’s absence increases Sexton’s assist rate and makes him a stronger fantasy option. In seven games without Garland and Andre Drummond this season, Sexton has averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.9 percent usage rate and 32.2 percent assist rate. We can expect 36 to 38 minutes from Sexton against a short-handed Boston team.
C.J. McCollum ($7,900 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) has a tough matchup against the Utah Jazz, who have been one of the most efficient defenses in the NBA this season. McCollum is reasonably priced, however, as he offers plenty of upside despite the matchup. He has played 31 games alongside Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic this season and has produced 1.17 DraftKings points per minute while averaging 34.8 minutes per game. The Blazers are tied with the Mavericks for the fifth seed in the West, so it is likely that we get 36-plus minutes from McCollum if this game is competitive. He’s also a good way to get a bit contrarian, coming in with only about 9 percent ownership in the Awesemo NBA DFS ownership projections.
Jordan Clarkson ($7,500 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) has a favorable matchup against the Blazers. Portland ranks 13th in pace and 18th in defensive rating over the last month. Clarkson has now played nine games without Mike Conley or Donovan Mitchell this season. In those games, he has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points per minute with a 31.7 percent usage rate and 17.3 percent assist rate. He has averaged 32.5 minutes per game in those games as well.
Eric Bledsoe ($6,100 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) is the only regular starter that will be active for the Pelicans tonight. Bledsoe has played 136 minutes without Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram or Zion Williamson on the floor this season. He has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute with a 24.7 percent usage rate and 25.3 percent assist rate. We can expect at least 30 to 32 minutes from Bledsoe tonight and there is certainly the potential for more.
Kevin Huerter ($4,900 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) replaced Tony Snell in the starting lineup against the Wizards in Atlanta’s last game. Snell is listed as available for tonight’s game, but De’Andre Hunter will be out. Hunter played about 13 minutes last game and Snell typically plays 18 to 20, so there are a similar number of minutes available tonight even if Huerter returns to the bench. It is likely that Huerter plays at least 28-30 minutes in a favorable matchup against Washington if he comes off the bench. If he starts, we can add a few minutes onto his projection. Huerter has averaged 0.78 DraftKings points per minute in 48 total games with Young, Collins and Capela active this season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: C.J. McCollum, Jordan Clarkson, Eric Bledsoe
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: C.J. McCollum, Collin Sexton, Eric Bledsoe
Small Forward
Kevin Durant ($9,800/$10,700 FanDuel) only played 31.7 minutes against the Bulls last night but he had played at least 36 minutes in each of his previous five games. I expect that he returns to playing 36-plus minutes tonight against the Spurs. Durant’s projection will depend on the statuses of James Harden (probable) and Kyrie Irving (questionable). If both players play, Durant still offers upside in tournaments but he will be overpriced for his median projection as he has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute in seven games with both players active. If Irving sits, however, Durant will project relatively well. He has only played two games with Harden and without Irving, but he has a 36.1 percent usage rate and has averaged 1.53 DraftKings points per minute in those two games. It is also likely that Harden will be at least somewhat limited since he hasn’t played a game in over a month. That means that Durant would have more minutes than usual without Irving or Harden on the floor if Irving isn’t able to play.
DeMar DeRozan ($8,000 DraftKings/$7,900 SG FanDuel) gets a pace-up spot against the Nets. He has averaged 1.17 DraftKings points per minute in 38 games played without Aldridge and with Murray active this season. In those games, DeRozan has a 27.1 percent usage rate and 32.4 percent assist rate.
Bojan Bogdanovic ($6,900 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel) has produced at a high level without Mitchell or Conley. In the nine games that both players have missed, Bogdanovic has averaged 1.13 DraftKings points per minute and 33.5 minutes per game. He has a 29.8 percent usage rate in those games as well. He is scoring dependent as he has only averaged 4.2 rebounds and 2 assists per game, but there is a high ceiling for his salary given the increased usage.
Joe Ingles ($6,500 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute and 31 minutes per game in the nine games without Conley or Mitchell. Ingles has a 33.9 percent assist rate in those games to complement a 19.2 percent usage rate. While he doesn’t offer the scoring upside of Clarkson or Bogdanovic, he contributes more peripherals, which gives him a relatively high floor.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”05/12/2021″ team=”jazz”]
Evan Fournier ($5,500 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) is priced much differently between DraftKings and FanDuel. He is clearly mispriced on DraftKings as he will need to take on more of a scoring load without Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown or Marcus Smart. Fournier has shot well recently, which suggests that he is no longer struggling with blurred vision and headaches. Fournier has played a total of 117 minutes without Brown or Walker on the floor since joining the Celtics. He only has an 18.2 percent usage rate, but it is likely that number increases as the sample grows- especially if we assume that Fournier was shooting less often due to his vision issues. Fournier has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute overall this season, including his time in Orlando, and it is likely that we see similar production tonight for the short-handed Celtics, which is why Awesemo NBA DFS projections have Fournier as one of the top values on the slate.
Naji Marshall ($4,800 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) has averaged 0.89 DraftKings points per minute and 28.8 minutes per game in seven starts this season. He played 30.5 minutes against the Grizzlies on Monday and it is likely that we see similar playing time tonight, if not more. He doesn’t have a particularly high ceiling, but he offers solid per-minute production at a reasonable price tag for a short-handed Pelicans squad.
Chandler Hutchison ($3,200 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel) is worth a look on DraftKings as he played about 25 minutes last game. The playing time is volatile and there is no guarantee he plays that many minutes again — especially because Rui Hachimura only played about 27 minutes in that game and he normally will play at least 5 more minutes. Hutchison has averaged 0.79 DraftKings points per minute in 15 games with the Wizards this season. If he plays another 24 to 25 minutes it most likely means that he is playing well and outperforming his salary.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Bojan Bogdanovic, Joe Ingles, Evan Fournier, Naji Marshall
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Bojan Bogdanovic, Joe Ingles, Naji Marshall, Keldon Johnson
Power Forward
Jayson Tatum ($9,400 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel) is the top pay-up option at power forward tonight. Tatum will need to play a huge role offensively for the Celtics against Cleveland. In 619 minutes without Brown or Walker on the floor this season, Tatum has averaged 1.38 DraftKings points per minute with a 36 percent usage rate, 11.5 percent rebounding rate and 23.2 percent assist rate. By comparison, Tatum has averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute with a 30.6 percent usage rate, 11.5 percent rebounding rate and 19.9 percent assist rate overall this season. You’ll need to find a way to get some differentiation in your lineup, as Tatum is currently sitting at almost 50 percent ownership in our NBA DFS ownership projections.
John Collins ($6,700 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) played about 32 minutes against the Wizards on Monday and hopefully we get another 30 to 32 minutes from him tonight. Collins is difficult to trust because his playing time has been relatively volatile this season and he loses usage to Young and rebounds to Capela. Still, he has averaged 1.09 DraftKings points per minute and 29.7 minutes per game in 49 games alongside Young and Capela and he has blow-up potential at this price point against the Wizards.
Kenyon Martin Jr. ($6,600 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) will be affected by the Rockets’ final injury report, but he is likely to benefit if any of the questionable players (Danuel House, DaQuan Jeffries and Christian Wood) are unable to play. Martin has played at least 38 minutes in four straight games and he has produced at a high level. Overall this season, Martin has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute. In his five starts, he has averaged 1.07 DraftKings points per minute. His salary is elevated to a point where there is some risk, but he still is a strong option if the Rockets’ frontcourt is short-handed again tonight.
Rui Hachimura ($5,300 DraftKings/$5,800 SF FanDuel) is a risky option tonight but he does have a higher ceiling than normal with Beal sidelined. The Wizards need someone to step up as a secondary scorer alongside Westbrook and Hachimura has shown the ability to do so in the past. He has a 24.6 percent usage rate and has averaged 0.88 DraftKings points per minute in seven games without Beal and with Westbrook this season. Overall, he has a 22.7 percent usage rate and has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute without Beal on the floor this season. If Hachimura is playing well, he is likely to play 32 to 34 minutes tonight against Atlanta.
Danilo Gallinari ($5,000 DraftKings/$6,100 SF FanDuel) is another risky option with a high ceiling — particularly at his $5,000 price tag on DraftKings. Gallinari played just 21.2 minutes against Washington on Monday, but he had played 32, 24 (blowout) and 28 minutes in his three previous games. The playing time is volatile, as is often the case with bench scorers, but Gallinari is capable of scoring a lot of baskets in a hurry and has a great matchup against Washington. Gallinari has averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute and 24 minutes per game in 49 total games this season.
James Johnson ($5,000 DraftKings/$4,700 FanDuel) appears to be the safest option of the three players mentioned in the $5,000 to $5,300 price range tonight. Johnson played about 30 minutes last game and has averaged 28.5 minutes per game in eight starts with the Pelicans. In those starts, Johnson has averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute. He is likely to play 30-plus minutes tonight with Ball, Ingram, Williamson and Adams all sidelined. Johnson is also capable of handling the ball and contributing assists and rebounds so he is likely to produce a well-rounded statline with the extra assists and rebounds available tonight.
Keldon Johnson ($4,600 DraftKings/$4,300 SF FanDuel) has let us down plenty of times this season but his salary accounts for that. In 38 starts without Aldridge and with DeRozan and Jakob Poeltl this season, Johnson has averaged 0.83 DraftKings points per minute and 28.2 minutes per game. Since the All-Star break, he has averaged 0.80 DraftKings points per minute in 29 starts under those conditions. He has a favorable matchup against the Nets and is underpriced for his average production and playing time.
Davis Bertans ($4,000 DraftKings/$3,700 FanDuel) is another risky option that has a higher than normal ceiling tonight for the Wizards. As mentioned before, someone will need to step up for Washington. Bertans is supposed to be that guy, but he has struggled this season. He has produced at a higher rate without Beal, however. Bertans has averaged 0.85 DraftKings points per minute with a 16.9 percent usage rate without Beal on the floor compared to 0.69 DraftKings points per minute with a 13.3 percent usage rate alongside Beal.
Georges Niang ($3,900 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel) isn’t a very exciting option but he is reasonably priced for his role sans Conley and Mitchell. In eight starts without those two players active, Niang has averaged 24.4 minutes per game and 0.81 DraftKings points per minute.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Jayson Tatum, James Johnson, Keldon Johnson
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Jayson Tatum, John Collins, James Johnson
Center
Clint Capela ($8,600 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) grabbed 22 rebounds against Washington on Monday and he is likely to have success on the boards again tonight. Capela has averaged about 30 minutes per game this season, but he occasionally plays 34 or 35 minutes like he did against Washington Monday. Over his last five games, the only game that he played fewer than 30 minutes was a 32-point blowout win over the Suns. He has averaged 1.34 DraftKings points per minute this season and is likely to produce at an above-average rate against Washington. He is especially appealing on FanDuel at only $7,600, where he’s projected for just under 40 points in our Awesemo NBA DFS projections.
Rudy Gobert ($8,400 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) is similar to Capela in that he averages about 30 minutes per game this season but that he has the potential to play more minutes if tonight’s game against the Blazers is competitive. He is also more favorably priced on FanDuel than he is on DraftKings. Gobert has produced 1.28 DraftKings points per minute this season.
Andre Drummond ($6,000 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel) played about 30 minutes in regulation last night and about 35 minutes total including overtime. We don’t know who will be active for the Lakers tonight as Anthony Davis and LeBron James are both questionable, but Drummond offers upside at this price point regardless of their statuses. Last night’s game was the first time Drummond exceeded 22 minutes since May 2nd (five games ago) and the only time he has topped 26 minutes in his last ten games so we shouldn’t expect another 30 minutes. Still, Drummond has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute in 18 games with the Lakers this season and the Rockets are one of the most favorable matchups in the NBA.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nba” date=”05/12/2021″ team=”lakers”]
Guillermo Hernangomez ($5,600 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) has started nine games in place of Steven Adams this season. Hernangomez has averaged 1.19 DraftKings points per minute and 25.3 minutes per game in those games. His playing time from game to game is volatile as it partly is a hot hand situation between Hernangomez and Jaxson Hayes, but he is inexpensive enough that he projects as a strong option as long as he gets at least 24 or 25 minutes. In 194 minutes without Ingram or Williamson on the floor this season, Hernangomez has produced 1.31 DraftKings points per minute.
Jakob Poeltl ($5,300 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) seems to go under the radar on a lot of slates but he is very affordable and has a strong matchup against the Nets. Poeltl has averaged 0.98 DraftKings points per minute and 28.9 minutes per game in 45 starts without Aldridge this season. He has averaged 29.5 minutes per game in 34 starts since the All-Star break. He played 33.6 minutes against the Bucks on Monday and lost several minutes to garbage time so there is the potential for more than 30 minutes tonight as well.
Tristan Thompson ($5,000 DraftKings/$4,800 FanDuel) played 28.5 minutes through three quarters against the Heat last night and he will be playing without Robert Williams again tonight. Thompson didn’t play in the fourth quarter against Miami as the Celtics went small and closed with Grant Williams and Tatum in the frontcourt. That is less likely to happen tonight since Walker and Smart are out. In order for the Celtics to close without Thompson, they will need to use at least three of Pritchard, Williams and others who are even further down the depth chart. While that could happen, I think that it is more likely that Thompson is in the closing lineup and plays more than 30 minutes tonight — especially because the Cavaliers’ center minutes will mostly be played by a traditional center in Jarrett Allen. Thompson has produced 0.91 DraftKings points per minute in 42 starts this season.
Top DraftKings NBA DFS Picks: Guillermo Hernangomez, Jakob Poeltl, Tristan Thompson
Top FanDuel NBA DFS Picks: Clint Capela, Rudy Gobert, Guillermo Hernangomez, Andre Drummond
Be sure to catch the Awesemo NBA DFS Strategy Show on our YouTube Channel and our DraftKings and FanDuel cheat sheets for more help making your NBA DFS picks today.
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
[NBAPAGE]
