NBA DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders

Next time I think “I hope not having much Kevin Durant isn’t my downfall tonight,” remind me to completely change course and load up. With Durant and several others posting monster nights on Wednesday, NBA DFS saw some massive scoring. In the FanDuel NBA contest, we had a lineup land in sixth place in the largest GPP with a zero from Brandon Goodwin in the lineup; it scored over 420 points anyway. In DraftKings NBA things were equally absurd. Fortunately, the Awesemo tools and projections guided plenty of us to profitable nights. We’re here to make that happen again today, by reviewing the boom/bust for the short Thursday slate. We’re in for a bit of a late afternoon three-game slate lightning round today, with other sports soaking up part of the afternoon for yours truly. As always, this article comes out ahead of lock, and many things will change with our NBA DFS picks. Be sure to follow the @AwesemoNBA Twitter handle for all the latest breaking news (via our NewsGod).

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NBA DFS Picks: Optimal Lineup + Leverage Leaders

These picks are made utilizing the boom/bust tool, specifically analyzing the optimal-lineup rate, leverage score and boom probability. Optimal-lineup rate represents the frequency at which a player appears in Awesemo’s simulated DraftKings NBA and FanDuel NBA slates. The leverage score is the difference between the optimal-lineup rate and projected ownership, while the boom probability indicates a player’s likelihood of hitting a ceiling score. It is important to remember that not all of these NBA DFS picks are highlights, and we will also be discussing bad chalk and shaky investments in this space, so be sure to read the analysis and not just the headlines.

Elfrid Payton – New York Knicks

DraftKings – $5,800 – PG / FanDuel – $5,300 – PG

Look, I don’t like recommending him much more than you like hearing about him as a recommendation. But here he is with his usual 29-minute projected run and his 0.84 fantasy points per minute.

The compelling thing about Payton is the value he brings at the point guard position given his price and the general paucity of options on the slate. To be clear, this is primarily a play for FanDuel NBA contests — the roster flexibility on DraftKings renders Payton largely irrelevant. On the blue site he looks like a strong point guard play, coming in with a 17% boom score probability and, most interestingly, landing in 38.4% of optimal lineups with a 10.10 leverage score. It should be obvious that not enough people are going to an unpopular player, so this is the type of spot we want to get over the field on, conveniently forgetting to check the name on the back of the jersey in the process.

Immanuel Quickley – New York Knicks

DraftKings – $4,100 – PG / FanDuel – $4,500 – PG

Chasing Payton for his minutes and his role on the team is Quickley, who has already surpassed lottery pick Obi Toppin in the esteem of the average New Yorker, following his dynamic play and actual proficiency at the point guard position. Those are two things the Knicks have been sorely lacking for the better part of two decades.

Quickley comes in with a productive 1.01 fantasy point per minute rate and very inexpensive pricing on both sites. The rookie’s only limitation is in his short and somewhat unpredictable minutes. He has won an 18-22-minute share with his play, but the Knicks have an overabundance of point guards to whom they can turn at any moment. Still, for the money, we can look to Quickley as a strong value play with upside for a little more. On DraftKings he carries a 9.9% boom score probability and lands in 23.2% of optimal lineups while leading the slate in leverage at 9.3. He is under-owned on DraftKings tonight. On FanDuel Quickley comes in with a 9.8% boom score probability and appears in 22% of optimal lineups against a 6.6 leverage score. Despite the $400 higher price, he is very much in play on the blue site as well.

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Khris Middleton – Milwaukee Bucks

DraftKings – $7,600 – SF/ FanDuel – $8,000 – SF

Middleton is the standout player of the middle tier on most slates that feature a Bucks game. He is not quite a next-level star — despite what the contract figures may say — but he is above the level of most players we can roster at or below $8,000 on both sites. Middleton occupies an interesting, underappreciated role on a lot of slates.

Tonight he looks like a strong option for DraftKings NBA contests, where is hauling in a healthy 21.5% boom score probability to go with his 35.8% optimal-lineup rate. He is in positive leverage land, coming up with a 4.8 score, which tells us that not enough of the competition will roster him. It makes sense to get over the field on Middleton tonight.

In FanDuel NBA contests, Middleton looks like an equally strong play but with less leverage upside. The 22.1% boom score probability and 34.2% optimal-lineup rate are terrific, but his -0.3 leverage score tells us the field is on him in the appropriate amounts. Still, with limited options both at the small forward position and on the slate as a whole, I think it makes sense to leverage up on Middleton here tonight as well.

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Kelly Oubre – Golden State Warriors

DraftKings – $5,700 – SF/PF/ FanDuel – $5,600 – SF

So, you’re looking for an alternative at the small forward spot and the best name that came up was Oubre? That isn’t a comfortable feeling, is it? Of course, uncomfortable can be a plus in NBA DFS, which it appears to be in Oubre’s case. His current year production of just 0.89 fantasy points per minute — down from last year’s 0.96 rate — has a bit of the gleam off the player despite being a featured piece in the Warriors’ offense.

Oubre is less popular than he should be on both sites. In FanDuel NBA contests, he pulls in a 22.0% boom score probability, third at the position and fundamentally no different from Middleton’s 22.1%. He will be owned significantly less than the competing small forward and carries a 5.2 leverage score while appearing in 28.5% of optimal lineups. Oubre is very much in play as a small forward option, and we’re getting him at a quality discount, assuming we completely ignore the down production so far this year.

In DraftKings NBA contests, Oubre loses a bit of his optimal-lineup rate, falling to 25.4%, and halves his boom score probability at just 11.2%. He is under-owned, however, and carries a 5.0 leverage score. We can get to Oubre as a moving part on the site. If I’m around the field on him in a mix-and-match sense, I’m good with that. If I’m slightly above or below his projected 25% ownership, I’m OK with that as well.

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Author

Terry McBride

Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.