After a wild trade deadline, we have eight games in front of us to dig through for today’s NBA DFS picks. We’ll get our first look at the Andre Drummond-less Pistons and there are some major absences for Houston, Boston, Miami and possibly Dallas that will make the slate even more worthy of your attention. We’ve got a lot of trickle-down effects and consolidated opportunities to discuss in what seems like it should be a high-scoring slate so let’s get into it with the Feb. 7 NBA DFS Switch and Hedge!
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Another Glorious James Harden NBA DFS Day for All
Houston’s bevy of tiny individuals made all the headlines last night as they stole a win against the Brobdingnagian Lakers. And now James Harden will be their Gulliver all alone with Russell Westbrook out on the back half of a back-to-back against Phoenix. Harden is a 47% usage player with a 42% assist rate with Westbrook out and he is priced to be highly playable tonight against Phoenix. Eric Gordon remains undervalued when Westbrook is out as well. He overall averages 27% usage when Westbrook is off the court, and while Harden will diminish that in their shared court time, he’ll have a lot of opportunity to get things going tonight in a game with a slate-high 233.5 combined total.
Robert Covington played 30 minutes in his Rockets debut and I have no issue with him tonight. I think a lot of what he does as a player, particularly soaking up a lot of the 3-point looks, will marginalize Danuel House and P.J. Tucker enough that they would be out of play at their prices.
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Devin Booker is at a stellar price on the other side and he’ll be chalky as a result, but I have no issue with him tonight. He’s ceded some usage lately to Deandre Ayton, who has more shot attempts in their last three games. Ayton deserves more than the sub-5% ownership he projects for even though he’s far less of a discount than Booker. Kelly Oubre also looks fine but I’d be reluctant to play all three of these guys in the same lineup.
I might also find my way to some Ricky Rubio tonight with his price still low and him back up to 35 minutes last game. He’s still the least important cog in this starting group from a fantasy perspective but this game with some pace and a lot of floor spacing is one where he could find his way to some assist upside. Even Mikal Bridges doesn’t look awful, albeit with less of a ceiling than all the other guys.
Lock and Load Porzingis … If He’s In
Kristaps Porzingis is currently questionable with a broken nose after he had his best game of this recent Luka Doncic-less stretch with 60 fantasy points in 29 minutes versus Memphis. He’d be right back in there for me tonight if he’s available versus Washington. The Wizards continue to bring their high pace and 114.1 defensive rating with no one to really worry you about stopping Porzingis with how amazing he’s looked without Doncic.
I’d be okay with Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jalen Brunson if Porzingis is in and I’d like them much more if he’s out. The same is true for Maxi Kleber. If Porzingis misses the game, I’d be OK with any Mavericks guys, even Dorian Finney-Smith, who had 44.75 fantasy points in 29 minutes versus Atlanta last weekend when Porzingis sat.
Bradley Beal remains the straw that stirs the drink even with Shabazz Napier expected to make his debut and the team mostly healthy again. Davis Bertans and Rui Hachimura are vaguely interesting to me as well and they should see even better looks with Napier and his 32% assist rate in the lineup. Ish Smith, who could see a start, is also much better for Bertans and Hachimura than ball-stopping Isaiah Thomas. These guys all have decent NBA DFS prices today in a game that could be competitive. If Porzingis is out in particular, I’d really game stack this one in the hopes of a lot of value guys playing above their head.
A Shorthanded Boston Side
Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward are out and that opens big opportunity for Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker. Walker will be on a 30-minute limit, but against Atlanta, he can do damage. He brings a 31.7% usage rate with those guys off the court and Atlanta’s 111.1 defensive rating won’t stop a thing. Tatum averages 36.7% usage overall, though he and Walker are at a more reasonable 32% and 33% usage respectively when on the floor together with those guys off. Either way, these two are super strong plays today.
The same holds true for Enes Kanter with Daniel Theis out. Kanter returned to the lineup with 26 minutes last game and it’s a better situation for him here than that game versus Orlando. He averages 1.3 fantasy points per minute with Walker and Tatum and without the other two in a limited sample size. I imagine the Tatum/Walker/Kanter triumvirate will make their way into a lot of lineups tonight and it seems deserved. I’d be less bullish on the returning Marcus Smart but he should see enough minutes to be useful. Four Celtics feels a bit heavy but for a pace-up against Atlanta, I may have some of that grouping.
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Trae Young put up 49.75 fantasy points in his last game versus Boston a few days ago but had 42% usage in that game. He looks fine again, though the point guard defense should be tighter this time with Smart back. I think Kevin Huerter looks fine again after he had 34.25 fantasy points on 9-for-21 shooting versus Boston last time and with Cam Reddish still out. Jeff Teague had 35.25 fantasy points in 36 minutes against Boston in that same game but I’d be less into him with De’Andre Hunter trending towards playing. Hunter’s absence opens up usage for Teague a bit more, including a possible start.
John Collins also is fine but maybe not the most interesting at his price point. Perhaps he has a “farewell to center minutes” game with Clint Capela out and Dewayne Dedmon expected to make his Hawks re-debut. Collins has over 40.75 fantasy points in his last five games and he is going to have significantly less opportunity when Capela is in.
The Appropriately Priced Pistons Head to Oklahoma City
Andre Drummond has been shipped to a division rival and that should mean big minutes for Christian Wood for the rest of the year. Unfortunately for him, his new chance comes in a game with rugged Oklahoma City. Someone has to do something for them and Wood has a shot to soak up a lot of usage and rebounds that Drummond left behind, but it’ll be a bit of a battle for him to accomplish it. He’s in play for me but the field’s 20% projected ownership seems right.
The same goes for Reggie Jackson who’s had 30% usage with Drummond, Derrick Rose and Blake Griffin off the floor this year. Jackson averages 1.4 fantasy points per minute in a very limited sample size with those guys off the court and he’s going to be able to do whatever he wants without them.
Bruce Brown is less of a usage hog but he can get there at a much cheaper price with minutes as the starting two-guard who also sees backup point guard minutes. I wouldn’t mind Sekou Doumbouya either at his discount price and with all this usage to go around. Doumbouya is dying to shoot more and they’re running out of ways to keep him off the court. John Henson at the same price point is also in play and I’d watch for starting lineups here; it wouldn’t be a shock if Henson started with Wood off the bench because that’s the kind of thing Dwane Casey enjoys to throw at us for no reason.
A Lot of NBA DFS Opportunity for Miami
Jae Crowder‘s and Andre Iguodala’s statuses are unknown while Jimmy Butler is doubtful for Miami’s game at Sacramento after he sustained an injury last game. This means a lot of potential run and opportunity for the remaining Heat players. Goran Dragic has a 28% usage rate with Butler off the floor with a 30% assist rate, Kendrick Nunn has a 23% usage and assist rate and Bam Adebayo gets a little more of everything as well.
Kelly Olynyk played 22 minutes last game with Meyers Leonard sidelined and he’s insanely cheap for this spot if he can hold off Derrick Jones Jr. for those minutes. Both guys would be in play tonight, but with less secure minutes and opportunity than Dragic and Nunn. I also wouldn’t sleep on Duncan Robinson if Crowder and Iguodala remain out. There’s just so much usage to go around and Robinson can get looks with Dragic and Nunn setting him up more than Butler may normally.
De’Aaron Fox looks good on Miami’s side with his usage stabilizing lately. Nemanja Bjelica remains at a solid price with the ability to spike an upside. Bogdan Bogdanovic remains cheap and more playable in lineups without Fox and Buddy Hield. The Kings are not the most appealing team overall in a game that should have a fairly low pace, but the defense against them definitely gets a little lighter without Butler.
Are the Lillard NBA DFS Days Done?
Damian Lillard had the usage and minutes to get back to his insane heater in yesterday’s game against the Spurs but he ended up with just 43 fantasy points on 9-for-20 shooting with seven turnovers really hurting him. He put up 79 fantasy points versus Utah less than a week ago so maybe he can do it today but I’m a little less inclined to get there on a slate of this size. He projects for under 5% ownership so that’s a stab I don’t mind making in a rate in line with that. But Lillard is playing like a mortal now and he’ll have a hard time paying off his salary if he doesn’t find his superpowers again.
Hassan Whiteside feels like a serious boom-or-bust play, though he also just put up 51.75 fantasy points versus Utah less than a week ago. I’m okay with him but on the back-to-back on the road, I’m not dying to get there like I was yesterday.
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Rudy Gobert is well priced for this game versus Portland where he’ll see a lot of time against Whiteside. Donovan Mitchell looks way too cheap against Portland’s 110.5 defensive rating with him shooting over 21 times in his last two games. He can certainly spike an upside here even though Mike Conley’s return to the starting lineup makes Mitchell mostly just a scorer. Conley’s price looks fairly appealing with 42 and 34.5 fantasy points in his last two games since rejoining the starting lineup.
He threw up 20 shots in that last game versus Portland and I think he’s downright sneaky today with him looking a lot more like himself since his return from injury. Joe Ingles and Bojan Bogdanovic would be lower-priority guys for me. Ingles is deeply marginalized by Conley but Bogdanovic is fine, albeit with less upside if Conley is going to shoot as much as he has lately.
Can Philadelphia Lick Their NBA DFS Wounds Versus Memphis?
Milwaukee put it on Philadelphia yesterday in some revenge for their Christmas Day matchup. And now the 76ers get a good spot at home against fast-paced Memphis to get back on track. Joel Embiid had a season-high 26 shot attempts yesterday … and he hit six of them. I was bullish on him yesterday and I’m definitely into him today; his price is down even further and he gets a matchup against Jonas Valanciunas that’ll keep him right in his comfort zone by the rim.
Ben Simmons also looks way underpriced and deserving of his chalky status. He played 42 minutes yesterday, which is a lot, but Memphis isn’t a good defense with a 108.4 defensive rating and 105.4 pace. Tobias Harris also looks cheap again, though he, Shake Milton and Al Horford certainly appeal to me a bit less than the way-too-cheap Embiid and Simmons.
Memphis’ side doesn’t really rate for me, perhaps aside from De’Anthony Melton who was up to 28 minutes last game. That seemed like a bit of an aberration with Dallas going small on the other side, something that marginalized Valanciunas. Valanciunas could be in play with the matchup versus Embiid but I don’t love his price. I’d rather have the cheaper Ja Morant who seems like the type to really get up for this matchup.
