We’re down to a reasonable four-game slate today with key injury news already out for today’s NBA DFS picks. LeBron James was ruled out well in advance while Joel Embiid will miss after a shoulder injury knocked him out in the first quarter yesterday. Damian Lillard also remains out which will give C.J. McCollum a chance to continue his heater in a tough spot at Indiana. Go right now and follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags to make sure you don’t miss any of my content! Let’s get into it with the Feb. 27 Switch and Hedge.
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Joel Embiid Out After Lighting My NBA DFS Lineups on Fire Yesterday
I felt pretty good having 75% Caris LeVert yesterday in my tournament lineups as he exploded for 62 fantasy points versus Washington. I felt less good about also having Joel Embiid in 75% of my lineups as he went out with a shoulder injury on a nothing play in the first quarter with 4.5 fantasy points. But last night’s crisis is today’s opportunity as the remaining 76ers look like compelling options at home versus the Knicks. Tobias Harris sees his usage creep up to 25% without Ben Simmons and Embiid. He also sees an appreciable rebound boost to 15% from his usual 10.7% rate. Josh Richardson gets to 24.5% usage with the two Philadelphia stars off the court and he is good as well. I’m more concerned for Al Horford’s availability on a back-to-back after he played 34 minutes yesterday, a situation that might normally result in him getting rest. But if he plays, he will likely get the biggest boost with 1.1 fantasy points per minute on 20% usage, a 13% rebound rate and a much higher 30% assist rate without the two main Sixers.
Shake Milton also should see more secure run with less appreciable boosts than the other guys. He saw 19 minutes in the second half yesterday and closed alongside Alec Burks. Burks and Furkan Korkmaz gained the most minutes in that second half yesterday, though Matisse Thybulle started after halftime. I also wouldn’t sleep on Kyle O’Quinn in case Horford’s run is truncated against an iffy Knicks team also on a back-to-back. The matchup is weak enough that Philadelphia could play Horford less than expected, and with Horford likely to be insanely highly owned, O‘Quinn is a logical pivot who would have likely played 16 minutes if Embiid were out the whole game yesterday.
The Knicks’ side is not great. Maybe it’s an OK day to target a Julius Randle or Elfrid Payton bounce back after both stunk/lost minutes yesterday while Mitchell Robinson excelled against Charlotte. Randle in particular would interest me if the ownership is relatively low. But I’m not necessarily dying to get there a ton.
LeBron is Another Big NBA DFS Absence at Golden State
Rajon Rondo and Anthony Davis are like two lock-and-load plays today with LeBron James ruled out well in advance. Rondo gets up to 19.5% usage with a slight uptick in rebounds and a huge 44.3% assist rate on the court with Davis while James is off. He’s likely to start as LeBron’s direct backup. It’s a perfect matchup for him to have upside against Golden State’s 110.7 defensive rating at near-minimum prices industrywide. Davis sees just under 35% usage without LeBron and gets modest boosts to his rebounding and assists as well. He looks great at his price.
The other Lakers should stand to see some trickle-down boosts, but nobody jumps out on paper. Danny Green’s price is fine and maybe Kyle Kuzma sees more unencumbered run in the second unit while Alex Caruso gets more meaningful court time. None of them seem like core plays with Markieff Morris also in the mix to muddy things up.
On the Warriors’ side, there’s not much I like. Draymond Green and Marquese Chriss look like the best options with both expected to play today. They have secure roles and they both seem like they should be highly involved. Chriss also had 43.5 fantasy points against this Lakers squad earlier this month. Damion Lee rounds out my primary interests with how Andrew Wiggins is a lower-usage player in his Warriors’ role. He has 27.6 usage on the year, but that’s been down to 23.8% as a Warrior. With 28% ownership going his way, I’d want less than that at his price point. Lee is at least reasonably priced and lower owned.
The NBA DFS Slate’s Highest Total is in Oklahoma City
Sacramento plays Oklahoma City in a game with a 222.5 combined total that’s the highest on today’s slate but low by modern NBA DFS standards. The game should be competitive with mostly fairly priced plays that will be less of a priority for DFSers than the ones discussed above. De’Aaron Fox looks chalky again and he’s certainly fine at his price point. He hasn’t played minutes into the high 30s lately but he’s a volatile per-minute player who could certainly spike an upside day. Bogdan Bogdanovic is fine as always but his upside remains questionable with a crowded Sacramento lineup. I’d favor him over Harrison Barnes today, but I’m not dying for either of them nor Buddy Hield. Hield’s minutes are all over the place and he’s a real risk if his shot doesn’t fall. Nemanja Bjelica has played poorly lately and Harry Giles has put a cramp on his minutes. Bjelica looks OK to take a stab on, but Giles may be the sneakier play with less ownership and his size possibly more of an asset with Steven Adams on the other side.
Dennis Schroder is the most appealing Thunder player to me again thanks to his value price. Adams, Chris Paul and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander probably all have higher ceilings right now and I’d want some exposure to them, but the price on Schroder just seems safer to trust, particularly for cash. Danilo Gallinari is solid again with the same caveat that he’s not likely to be a guy with gigantic tournament upside. His target score for GPPs is likely higher than his ceiling in most models, but he’s unlikely to kill you if his salary opens up a lineup construction you love.
Can McCollum Do It Again Versus a Tough Indiana Squad?
C.J. McCollum has been a monster since Damian Lillard went out with over 50 fantasy points in all three games thus far. He had 55.5 fantasy points and played 38 minutes last game versus Boston despite a game out of hand that cut out the last few minutes of his court time. I’m OK with McCollum again in tournaments even though it’s an ugly matchup against Indiana’s low pace and 105.4 defensive rating. Carmelo Anthony also looks OK with his uptick to 25% usage with Lillard and Kent Bazemore off the court. Hassan Whiteside is an OK tournament play but not a priority for me overall. His size will be an asset against Indiana, but they can make it hard on him.
Domantas Sabonis is at a good price and the matchup with Whiteside will keep him squarely by the rim to reap all those benefits. He is a stronger play to me than Whiteside at comparable prices. I’d be less inclined to point chase Myles Turner, but his salary represents a decent discount. T.J. Warren is a decent play while I’m a little less inclined for Malcolm Brogdon with Victor Oladipo available to play today. Oladipo remains mostly unplayable to me on DraftKings other than some dart toss tournament exposure. His FanDuel price looks like a more logical option. Overall, Indiana should be able to find more upside with Portland’s 110.9 defensive rating that’s the worst on the slate. But their prices and Oladipo’s availability make it hard to love much besides Sabonis and maybe Turner for me.
