NBA DFS Picks Today: Luka Tops the Boom List Despite Price Tag

Thursday night’s NBA DFS plate features stars like Jayson Tatum, Paul George, Luka Doncic and Chris Paul in nationally televised matchups. Luckily for NBA fans and DFS players some of the top stars are also standing out in Stokastic’s Boom/Bust Tool.

The Boom/Bust Tool is updated throughout the day. It goes without saying that there are always going to be major changes to the projections and the overall look of the slate as the chaotic NBA news cycle ramps up. But as of 4:00 p.m. ET there are three players that make strong boom candidates for NBA DFS players to consider, and one they might want to avoid.

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Boom/Bust NBA DFS Picks & Projections | Jan. 26

NBA DFS Play: Paul George $8,500 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel

35.03% DraftKings Boom/36.84% FanDuel Boom

Paul George is the top option in the Boom/Bust Tool on DraftKings and #2 on FanDuel. He’s projecting for a healthy 32% ownership on DraftKings and 38.1% on FanDuel but his strong points-per-dollar and ceiling projections are enough to make him a great play on either site. You will need to eat some negative leverage on FanDuel, but his optimal rate of 38.3% is on par with the ownership on the site.

There isn’t much to say about George that hasn’t been said in his career, or in his time with the Clippers. Kawhi Leonard is back, which means George doesn’t need to carry as much of the load for this team. It does take a bit away from George’s average projections, but he’s still an elite wing with a solid base and high ceiling within his range of outcomes.

Using players in later games also allows more roster flexibility as news hits. There are four games that tip off between 7:30 p.m. and 8:00 p.m. ET, so anything that happens after those lock could create value that won’t be rostered enough by the rest of the field. There’s little not to like about George on this slate given the current boom scores and projections of our tools.

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NBA DFS Play: Luka Doncic $12,700 DraftKings/$12,000 FanDuel

31.87% DraftKings Boom/38.81% FanDuel Boom

Luka is another superstar pick that needs no explanation. If you can get to him and his high price tag he is usually a fine option on any slate. The asking price above $12k on both sites is steep, but that’s causing only 21.7% of the field to get to Doncic on DraftKings and 23.3% on FanDuel. There’s some negative leverage on him at DraftKings but you’ll get positive leverage on the NBA’s top star over at FanDuel.

The issue on tonight’s slate is how and where to spend down in order to get to Doncic. It’s not just his salary that is keeping the ownership reasonable, but the lack of any low priced options. There is one to discuss later in this article that stands out, Zach Collins. However, Collins is going to see significant ownership because he is the best spend down value. Collins is also likely to be rostered in a high proportion of lineups that have Doncic in them, as well.

It’s okay to have that same combination in a sport that let’s you roster so many positions on a Classic slate. Just be mindful of the rest of your roster construction. If you’re hand building lineups or using Stokastic’s Lineup Generator be aware that the total roster might be low owned, but you can get bunched up with everyone else using very similar player combos. If other value plays besides Collins open up as lock approaches, you won’t have to be as concerned.

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NBA DFS Play: Ben Simmons $6,700 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel

19.87% DraftKings Boom/22.09% FanDuel Boom

At first glance, Ben Simmons looks like a strong boom candidate in our tools, but also a play that is being over owned and negatively leveraged. Simmons is picking up 21.9% ownership at a 19.1% optimal rate on DraftKings compared to 37.8% ownership and 32.3 optimal rate on FanDuel. Those are good for leverage scores of -3.1 and -3.3.

The reason that Simmons’ ownership is rising above his optimal rate isn’t because the field is over projecting him. Rather, Simmons is PF eligible both sites, which is a scarce position given the current makeup of the slate. All the questions of late news, new value and positional options notwithstanding, eating the negative leverage on Simmons is one way to get a high ceiling boom candidate that stands alone in that PF spot.

NBA DFS Fade: Zach Collins $3,700 DraftKings/$5,300 FanDuel

26.62% DraftKings Boom/2.66% FanDuel Boom

The aforementioned Collins is a DraftKings only play, or fade. It won’t be hard to look elsewhere on FanDuel given Collins’ weak 2.66% boom percentage. The decision is more difficult on DraftKings because of the way that his $3,700 salary can open up the rest of your lineup construction. He is coming it at 34.5% ownership on DraftKings relative to a 26.2% optimal rate, creating serious negative leverage.

There’s a case to be made for rostering Collins and using the salary on positively leveraged spots elsewhere. That’s similar to the argument for Simmons , albeit in a different salary range.

The difference with Collins is positionality. There are six center eligible players that rank in the Top-10 of the Boom/Bust Tool. The more shares you have of Collins, the less you can get to the other top centers on the board, who also offer much better leverage. That said, if you forego the value on Collins you’ll also have trouble making a highly projected lineup with Luka Doncic; but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

Per usual, stay up on NBA DFS news as we get close to lock. There’s a good chance plays will open up at other positions and price points that will change the context on these Boom/Bust candidates.

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