NBA DFS Switch And Hedge: Rise Of The Eight Seeds

The NBA playoffs are underway and there is NBA DFS on DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft. Greg Ehrenberg breaks down some of the key news in his Switch and Hedge article.

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NBA DFS Switch And Hedge | August 20

Jae Crowder And The Heat Rotation

The Heat played a much different rotation than normal in their first playoff game. Oddly, Kendrick Nunn went from starting to out of the rotation. He played zero minutes on Tuesday and it’s unclear why. Without any known injuries, I assume that Nunn is simply not in the playoff rotation. He could end up playing today although he is an easy fade in DFS. I can’t invest money in a player that might see zero minutes of action.

Jae Crowder is questionable on the injury report due to an ankle injury. If he is out, I think Duncan Robinson stands to benefit the most. One of the top shooters in the league, Robinson oddly played just 24 minutes in Game 1. He is too good for such a light workload and I expect his minutes to bounce back even if Crowder ends up playing. If Crowder is out, I am pretty confident that Robinson plays over 30 minutes. Miami is trying to work Andre Iguodala into a bigger for the playoffs, but I don’t consider him a viable option for NBA DFS. For the season, he averaged 15.58 DraftKings points in 20.1 minutes per game. Iggy doesn’t offer much at this point of his career.

Victor Oladipo Still Dealing With An Eye Injury

The Pacers found themselves in a bad situation entering the bubble. With Domantas Sabonis dealing with a foot injury and no timetable to return, Indy can’t afford more injuries. Unfortunately, another injury popped up. After getting poked in the eye on Tuesday, Oladipo exited the game and did not return. He ended up logging just eight minutes and his status is up in the air fo today’s game.

If Dipo is out, Malcolm Brogdon is going to have to play a massive for the Pacers. In Game 1, he logged 39 minutes with a 31.2% usage rating. He also recorded more touches than any other play on the team and racked up 10 assists. T.J. Warren stands to gain extra usage sans Oladipo, but Brogdon is my preferred DFS target. With all the star options on today’s slate, Warren is too expensive across the industry. Rostering him comes with the opportunity cost of not fitting multiple All-Stars into lineups.

The Blazers Go Big

Go big or go home. Portland took this phrase to heart in Game 1 of its series against the Lakers. Matching up against the size of the Lakers, the Blazers played Jusuf Nurkic and Hassan Whiteside together for extended stretches of the game. If this holds true again, Whiteside makes for an excellent value play. While some people may question the playing time upside of Whiteside, we don’t need a massive amount of minutes for him to find success. He played 26 minutes on Tuesday and he should crush if playing the same amount of minutes today. In the regular season, Whiteside averaged over 40 DraftKings points in just under 30 minutes per game. He is too cheap if the Blazers are willing to play him alongside Nurk in the frontcourt.

Top Seeds Look To Get Back On Track

I think the series get back to normal today. After both one seeds got upset on Tuesday, the spreads for both games are fairly wide today. The Bucks are favored by 12.5 points over the Magic while the Lakers are 6.5-point favorites over the Blazers. Shockingly, books actually made the Lakers a bigger favorite today than they were for Game 1. It stands to reason that the public will bet Portland in this spot.

Regardless of public sentiment and the (justified) love for Damian Lillard, I still think the Lakers should beat Portland today and in this series. In Game 1, the Lakers generated easier shot attempts than the Blazers. The difference in the game was the Lakers inability to convert on open looks. In fact, the Lakers suffered from a lot of bad luck. According to shot tracking data, the Lakers scored 43 less points than expected relative to the quality of shots they generated. If the game plays out the same way, Los Angeles could run away with this game if open shots drop. This series could come down to whether Lillard makes contests 35-footers at a higher rate than players like Danny Green and Kyle (Carl) Kuzma make wide open shots from the corner.

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Author

Greg Ehrenberg

Greg is a former stand up comedian who quit telling jokes to pursue a career in the world of DFS. He started playing fantasy sports in 6th grade when Greg and his friends would skip classes to meet in the bathroom for 20 team fantasy basketball drafts. Considering his current career path, it was the best education he could have asked for.