NBA Player Props No House Advantage: Giannis vs. Jokic? (January 25)

It’s an unders kind of day on No House Advantage, with the top NBA player props on NBA Bet Pro shorting two of the league’s most famous players. Unlike yesterday, there are plenty of plays with win rates over 60% in the projections, so sign up now for NBA Bet Pro today and get a seven-day free trial to get in on the action!

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NBA No House Advantage – Best NBA Player Props

Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 12.5 Rebounds

Giannis’ huge rebounding numbers have earned him this line, as he has three games of 20-plus boards in the last eight and another one with 18 rebounds. However, 12.5 is pushing it. Stokastic is projecting three players to exceed 12.5 rebounds today: Rudy Gobert, Clint Capela and Domantas Sabonis. The thing they all have in common is they are not playing any of the other top 5 projected rebounders tonight. Antetokounmpo, meanwhile, is taking on Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, and Jokic is projecting for 11.5 rebounds in this game, a tick more than the 11.2 for which Giannis projects.

And even with Giannis’ ridiculous production, he is averaging 11.9 rebounds a game and has only hit this over 15 times in 36 tries (41.7%). The Nuggets are a methodically paced team with high efficiency (60.8% true shooting, No. 3 in NBA). That downgrade matchup is pushing Giannis’s rebound projection down despite those high-ceiling games.

Plus, in between the 20-rebound outings, Giannis has four games in his last eight full runs (excluding a 22-minute blowout) that were unders, so it is not as if this recent stretch has been a home run for the over. It’s just when he has hit it lately, he smashes it to smithereens. NBA Bet Pro does not expect that to happen tonight, giving the under a 66% win expectancy.

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James Harden Under 10.5 Assists

Unlike Giannis, Harden’s over on this lofty number has been a home run — he’s connected on it in seven of the last eight and in 17 of 30 total games. That said, once again the matchup is working against the over a bit. Harden and the 76ers get a Nets team that allows the fourth-fewest assists per game on the season and plays at only a slightly faster pace than Philadelphia (20th versus 24th). Harden has only played the Nets once since leaving them for the 76ers, but in that game (in March of last year) he had just five assists in 29 minutes — for what it’s worth.

Stokastic is projecting Harden for slightly less court time than his season average — and Embiid considerably less, taking away Harden’s easiest assist target. Philadelphia’s team total is also the sixth lowest on the board out 20 teams in action tonight, and Brooklyn’s is the lowest, pointing to a low-scoring environment. All this said, Stokastic projects Harden for only 9.5 assists, and the under has a 64% expected win rate.

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Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.