NBA Player Props NHA: Walker Kessler Back Down to Earth? (February 3)

Welcome to No House Advantage, where we bring you the best NBA player props to help you maximize your ROI. Today’s slate is loaded with high-value picks, and NBA Bet Pro has identified a few props with high win expectancies. If you’re looking to take advantage of these opportunities, you can subscribe to NBA Bet Pro and receive a seven-day free trial to get started!

Let’s take a look at the best NBA player props for Friday, Feb. 3, including a play on Walker Kessler.

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NBA No House Advantage – Best NBA Player Props

Walker Kessler O/U 10.5 Points

Kessler has firmly established himself as Utah’s starting center thanks to his outstanding rim protection (2.1 blocks per game, 2.8 over last 10). It has led to him consistently getting 25-plus minutes and occasionally pushing 30, and at times that has given him enough chances to score a bit more. In his 10 games since fully taking over as starting center, he has scored at least 11 points in seven.

That said, NBA Bet Pro has the under here as the No. 1 prop on the board at the moment, giving it a 65% expected win rate. The matchup with Atlanta is part of this, as the Hawks are starting to get their paint defense back on track with Clint Capela. They have been towards the bottom of the league in points in the paint allowed this year, but Capela missing a huge stretch contributed heavily to that, and since returning he has slowly eased back into a full minutes load. He has been back to his normal playing time the last five games, and Atlanta has in turn allowed the seventh-fewest points in the paint over that stretch.

Kessler basically gets all of his 7.9 points per game in the paint. He has not attempted a 3 this year, and he is shooting a whopping 71.8% from the field because his shots rarely come from further than a few feet. Meanwhile, Utah’s other bigs like Lauri Markkanen and a now-healthy Kelly Olynyk are shooting over 40% from 3. As such, Stokastic projects those guys for more points — despite Olynyk projecting for fewer minutes than Kessler — and Kessler’s projected scoring line is only 8.8.

Best NBA Player Prop: Walker Kessler UNDER 10.5 Points

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Deandre Ayton O/U 10.5 Rebounds

Once again, NBA Bet Pro is liking an under for a center’s rebounds against the suddenly healthy Boston Celtics. It worked earlier this week, with the Celtics holding Nicolas Claxton to only six rebounds, and now Ayton gets the tough matchup.

The Celtics have been a middling rebounding team, but that changes with Robert Williams back in the picture. He comfortably leads the team in rebounds per 36 and rebound percentage, two categories in which he would rank top 20 in the NBA if he had enough games to qualify. Ayton, meanwhile, is putting up decent individual numbers for the decimated Suns. However, his rebounding totals have been pretty volatile, with games of 20 and 18 rebounds and plenty others with five and seven since Devin Booker went out. Overall, he has grabbed 11 or more in eight of his last 15 games.

And though Ayton is projecting for 31 minutes tonight, playing time has not really correlated with his rebounding totals. He has numerous single-digit games in which he played 30-plus, and he has a handful of overs on this line in games where he played in the low to mid-20s. Rather, this under projection from NBA Bet Pro has more to do with the matchup and his circumstances.

With the trade deadline approaching, there has to be some question of Ayton’s motivation, which has occasionally come under question in much more secure times. He and the Suns could end up playing it safe while Phoenix weighs potential offers.

Ayton played the Celtics back in December and only had seven rebounds in 24 minutes, and neither Williams nor Al Horford played in that game. With Boston now rolling with its entire frontcourt, Stokastic is projecting Ayton to fall short of this line, pegging him for 9.7 rebounds and a 62% hit rate on the under.

Best NBA Player Prop: Deandre Ayton UNDER 10.5 Rebounds

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Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.