NBA Player Props PrizePicks: Kyle Kuzma Crashing Boards (February 24)

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PrizePicks NBA Player Props | Feb. 24

Kyle Kuzma Over 6.5 Rebounds

While this line is 6.5 at most books, it is 7.5 in a few spots, and that seems more appropriate given Kuzma’s expected level of production tonight. It seems like Kuzma is getting a small hit to his over/under because of the matchup with the Knicks, who are third in in the NBA in rebound rate and sport strong rebounders at most positions. That said, Kuzma is averaging 7.6 rebounds a game, a full board over this line, and Stokastic’s PrizePicks NBA player props tool is projecting him even higher at 7.8 rebounds. That is giving the over a 66% expected win rate.

Even though Kuzma is still on the comeback from a four game-absence, he has played two games since returning and went over 6.5 in both. He has also hit the over in both matchups with the Knicks this season, including a 13-rebound game in January (granted, Mitchell Robinson exited early with an injury that game). All told, Kuzma has gone over 6.5 in 33 of 53 games this season (62.3%), and his over is the No. 1 play on the PrizePicks board.

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Chris Paul Over 4.0 Rebounds

Once again, PrizePicks has dropped the half point off of the industry-consensus line of 4.5, added some extra value to Paul’s over. Paul is averaging just slightly over four rebounds per game (4.2), and his push rate on 4.0 boards is pretty high (23.1%), but he has also been more likely to go over 4.0 than under — at least five rebounds in 43.6% of games and three or fewer in 33.3%.

The Suns play the Thunder tonight, a team loaded with strong-rebounding guards, but Paul projects to lead the Suns in minutes and Oklahoma City is still just 26th in team rebound rate. And though he has not played the Thunder yet this season, Paul went 2-for-3 on this over against them last season. With the secure minutes and solid rebounding track record this year, Paul projects for 4.9 boards in Stokastic’s PrizePicks NBA player props tool tonight, giving the over a 66% expected win rate.

Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.