NBA Player Props: What Can't Stephen Curry Do? (January 27)

Today’s NBA player props slate is light on home run values, so it is a good day to use NBA Bet Pro to guarantee the best profits. Caesars has done a solid job with most of the lines, but if you subscribe now to one-week free trial of NBA Bet Pro, you can find the leverage points. Also, NBA Bet Pro will be increasing in price to $99 a month, but if you subscribe now, you can get in at the grandfathered rate!

Let’s get into the top 5 NBA players props on Caesars for Friday, Jan. 26, starting with Stephen Curry, who is showing up quite a bit among the highest-EV props as he takes on the Raptors.

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Today’s Top NBA Player Props | Jan. 26

5. Paolo Banchero Over 5.5 Rebounds

This line is a little low when compared to Banchero’s 6.4-rebound average on the season, but Vegas is riding his cold streak in this category. Banchero has only gone over on 5.5 once in the last six games — doing so by just half a rebound in that lone hit. However, Miami is still dealing with a fairly limited frontcourt, and Bam Adebayo is the only true Heat big projecting for more than 20 minutes. Banchero is slated for 33.6 minutes against that short big rotation, and NBA Bet Pro gives his over on 5.5 rebounds a 56% win rate.

4. Stephen Curry Under 6.5 Assists

3. Stephen Curry Over 4.5 Rebounds

Based on NBA Bet Pro projections, Caesars appears to be severely overrating Curry’s assist total and underrating his rebound total. He is averaging 6.2 per game in both categories this season. That said, since returning from his 11-game absence, he has hit the over on this assist line in just two of seven games and three of seven games for his rebound prop. Yet for some reason, the rebound line has dropped all the way to 4.5 while his assist line stayed up at 6.5. NBA Bet Pro has Curry for 6.2 rebounds (a clear over) and 5.3 assists (a clear under) tonight, with both bets earning win expectancies over 63%.

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2. Markelle Fultz Over 1.5 Steals (+165)

Fultz’s steals over has been a popular play for NBA Bet Pro recently. He continues to hover around the league leaders in the category and has logged at least two steals in 12 of 27 games, a pretty high number for such a volatile stat. Because of that volatility, this wager is only getting a 41% expected win rate from NBA Bet Pro. However, with significant plus-money odds, it still grades as one of the two best EV plays of the slate — albeit one meriting a slightly lower-unit bet.

1. Josh Giddey Under 0.5 Steals (+159)

Giddey’s under is the same sort of play as the Fultz steals over — high ROI, lower expected win rate (43%). Only, the play on Giddey is an under given the plus money on that side and the fact he has poor steal average of 0.7 per game. Giddey has recorded a steal in over half his games (24 of 43), but tonight he faces a Cleveland team that plays at a painfully slow pace and turns the ball over at a middling rate. Fewer possessions have the under winning out here, and this play is the No. 1 prop on the board in both EV and sEV.

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Author

Sam Smith

Sam Smith is a writer and editor with Stokastic and OddsShopper. He has been immersed in the world of professional sports data since 2015, while also writing extensively on the NFL for a multitude of blogs and websites. With Stokastic, Sam looks to blend his sports and editorial expertise with Stokastic's data to bring you the best fantasy information possible.