Every week, it’s important to survey the DFS landscape and determine potential building blocks, which are the core plays that form the foundation of most lineups. The popular options rise to the top more often than not, but there also are overlooked plays at every position, usually only a couple of names down the rankings list. In this post, we’ll be making our best NFL DFS Week 11 picks on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Stokastic provides a variety of tools for all DFS sports that can help you sort through the large NFL feature slate player pool. These were utilized in coming up with the recommendations in this article and include, and they are far from limited to such offerings as the NFL DFS Top Stacks tool, player projections, the Boom/Bust tool and the Lineup Generator.
All tools are updated for the DraftKings and FanDuel main slates each week. Additionally, multiple tools are also at your disposal for the sub-slates as well as the primetime “island games” which have turned into one of the most popular DFS offerings on DraftKings and FanDuel. If you’re in the market for more DFS tools, Take a look at the Stokastic Discounts and Coupon Code page as well as the Subscription page to see what packages best suit your needs.
This week the European games are all complete, so that means an 11-game featured slate, with Atlanta, Indianapolis, New England and New Orleans all on a bye.
NFL DFS Week 11 Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel
Best NFL DFS Week 11 Picks and Building Blocks: Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy (49ers-Buccaneers): DraftKings ($5,800, 12.4% ownership), FanDuel ($7,500, <5.0% ownership)
Quarterback is a little tricky this week as most of the main “dual threat” options are playing in primetime, which means Lamar Jackson (535 yards), Josh Dobbs (368), Jalen Hurts (316) and Patrick Mahomes (258) are not on the Sunday featured slate.
That leaves Josh Allen (246) and his seven rushing touchdowns in the last eight games, who he finds himself in a tough matchup against the New York Jets; Justin Fields (237) could be rusty this week after missing a month with a thumb injury on his throwing hand; and Trevor Lawrence (223), who has 15 or fewer rushing yards in three of his last four appearances.
I landed on Brock Purdy this week. He is at a ridiculously low salary on DraftKings, which has him in play for “cash games” (e.g. H2H, 50/50s, 3-mans, etc.) and barely on the FanDuel tournament radar. Tampa Bay is outstanding against the run, with the seventh-best rushing DVOA, but they can be exploited in the short and intermediate passing game. That plays perfectly to Purdy’s strengths, and we can expect coach Kyle Shanahan to be scheming his game plan to focus on that aspect of the game.
The Buccaneers have been decent on offense and while they are projected for just 14.5 points, they have scored 18, 37 and 20 points over the last three weeks, which, when paired with a strong defense, could keep the 49ers within two scores, which means more opportunities for Purdy and his receivers.
Sam Howell (Commanders-Giants): DraftKings ($6,300, 8.5% ownership), FanDuel ($7,700, 6.9% ownership)
This season, Sam Howell currently leads the league with 2.783 passing yards, though Washington has not had a bye yet, which has given the Commanders an “extra” game over most other teams in the league. Howell still ranks fifth with 278.3 yards per outing, which is less than 15 yards away from topping the charts.
Washington is in the middle of yet another lost season and it seems that the new ownership group is doing their best to alienate the fans, though by no means as much as Daniel Snyder did over the last two decades. They are getting a perfect matchup against a reeling Giants team and putting points on the board would go a long way to winning back the crowd. There will be ample opportunities to run the ball against the decimated New York defense, but it would be a surprise if Howell does not have a multi-touchdown game on Sunday. Both Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson are fine stacking partners for tournaments, as is Logan Thomas on a thin tight end slate.
Other Options
Rookie C.J. Stroud actually leads the league with 291.8 passing yards per game and his 15-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio is amazing. He is facing Kyler Murray, who was solid in his return from a knee injury, showing very little rust. This duo is interesting, though not without concerns. Murray could easily stumble, with this being just his second game in almost a year. Stroud and the Texans are likely to lean on the running game, so if they call off the dogs early in what could easily be a lopsided game, that is curtains for his fantasy backers. Wideouts Noah Brown and Nico Collins are both questionable, and if the duo sits out, Stroud loses two of his key receiving options.
The key thing to keep in mind is that this game does have a 48 projected point total, with Houston listed as a home favorite by a touchdown. That is far from an insurmountable edge and with a little luck, the Cardinals could hang tough in this game and we could have a track meet scenario with both teams piling up touchdowns.
Best NFL DFS Week 11 Picks and Building Blocks: Running Backs
Devin Singletary (Texans-Cardinals): DraftKings ($5,300, 29.1%), FanDuel ($6,500, 28.8%)
It looks like Dameon Pierce will be out again, and we just saw Devin Singletary get 30 rushing attempts and a pair of targets last week. Arizona has the fifth-worst rushing DVOA and the third-worst passing DVOA, so there are ample avenues for Singletary to produce fantasy points. There is not much to add, other than mention that he is a decent receiver, and if Houston is missing one or both of Collins and Brown, there could be more passes to the running backs.
Christian McCaffrey (49ers-Buccaneers): DraftKings ($9,300, 18.9%), FanDuel ($10,000, 16.4%)
The matchup is tough and the salary isn’t very forgiving, but Christian McCaffrey is like having a top-five running back and a top-20 receiver rolled into one awesome player. Even if he rushes for something along the lines of 15 carries for 50 yards, he is still live for a touchdown and is the priority play in the red zone. Plus, he could easily have half a dozen receptions for another 60-plus yards, pushing him over 100-plus total yards. Of course, at this salary, he needs at least one, if not two touchdowns to break even, but he is projected for right around 20 fantasy points on both of the main DFS sites. This is a luxury option, but he will be on fewer than one in five tournament lineups.
Breece Hall (Jets-Bills): DraftKings ($6,400, 12.9%), FanDuel ($7,100, 15.3%)
The Bills have allowed eight different running backs to post 70-plus combined yards, including Breece Hall, who gouged them for 10 carries and 127 rushing yards. He racked up two targets for one reception and 20 more yards back in the season opener. Though he has back-to-back weeks with single-digit fantasy points, the volume has been there but while the touchdowns have not.
Hall reached the end zone in Week 5, 6 and 8 prior to this drought, only falling short during the Week 7 bye (#DadJokes). During the last two games, he averaged 14.5 carries and 3.5 targets, which is a solid baseline expectation. This is a make-or-break week for the Bills, and even though the Jets are touchdown underdogs, they have been waiting for years to be able to hand out some payback against the various bullies in the AFC East.
Best NFL DFS Week 11 Picks and Building Blocks: Wide Receivers
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions-Bears): DraftKings ($8,800, 21.7%), FanDuel ($8,900, 16.8%)
It feels like Amon-Ra St. Brown is getting a little overlooked for Sunday’s tournaments. He will be in the dome this week, which bodes well for Jared Goff, and this duo is facing a bottom-three passing defense by DVOA. Though only one wideout has tallied more than 70 yards in a single game against the Bears, they haven’t exactly faced that many players of St. Brown’s caliber.
St. Brown has one hundred or more yards or a touchdown in every game this season and over his last four outings, three of which were on the road, he has averaged 13 targets, with 9.6 receptions, 490 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He cleared the 100-yard threshold in each of those games, earning himself the fantasy bonus on DraftKings.
Tank Dell (Texans-Cardinals): DraftKings ($5,300, 21.7%), FanDuel ($7,000, 16.8%)
This has been one heck of a season for rookie Tank Dell, and he could once again see double-digit targets if one or more of his counterparts is out on Sunday. During the last two games, Dell has 25 targets for a dozen receptions, 170 yards and a trio of tuddies. Expect his popularity to surge by another 6-8% for each receiver who is out on Sunday, though as we will see in the Lineup Generator, he should still be a main feature in our player portfolio.
Looking at the Stokastic Lineup Generator and running a 20-lineup set using the QB+1 and a bringback, as well as the contrarian setting, we can see that Singletary and Dell are prominent pieces on both of the main DFS sites. It is important to remember that crafting “contrarian” lineups does not mean one needs to donk off a position or two with a random sub-1% option, it just means that finding a few less popular plays that still rate out in the top five at their position or salary point is crucial.
On DraftKings, that is being accomplished by using nine different quarterbacks across the 20 lineups, with only Murray (45%) on more than four rosters. It makes sense that things are spread out this week and we can see that in the Top Stacks Tool, which indicates five different teams have between a 9% and 14% chance of being the Top Stack for tournaments.
McBride is also the main receiving option being paired with Murray and it should be noted that five of the 20 lineups are using tight ends in the flex position.
The Lineup Generator is a tool that combines all of the other proprietary Stokastic NFL DFS offerings such as player projections, pOWN%, Boom/Bust (also known as leverage and ceiling) as well as using similar foundational functionality as the Stokastic Sims.
On FanDuel, we can see that it both Singletary and McBride are well represented but that Dell also falls off. Replacing him are a pair of Rams wide receivers in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, who appear along with DK Metcalf and quarterback Geno Smith. Things are more consolidated at quarterback with Smith (25%), Purdy (20%), Murray (20%) and Stroud (15%) representing the bulk of the field. In a fun twist, Matthew Stafford (10%) is also popping up, which makes sense with three of the five most popular players in this 20-lineup set, being wide receivers from this Seattle and Los Angeles game.
Premium Members can check out all the other wide receiver options here.
Best NFL DFS Week 11 Picks and Building Blocks: Tight Ends
Trey McBride (Cardinals-Texans): DraftKings ($4,400, 25.3%), FanDuel ($5,900, 19.1%)
Trey McBride wasted no time in developing chemistry with Murray in their first game together this season. McBride saw nine targets, catching eight or a whopping 131 yards, which was the first time a tight end had reached this milestone for the Cardinals since Week 10 of the 1989 season. In other words, before most of you reading this were born.
Editor’s Note (11/18/2023 at 4:32 ET): …and before the editor editing this was born as well.
McBride is the plug-and-play “cash game” option, and he is the reason that the Lineup Generator portfolios detailed above are each using tight ends in the flex slot on a quarter of the rosters.
Other Tight Ends
Travis Kelce is playing on Monday Night Football, which means the obvious apex option is not available on Sunday. However, there are ample options with eight players projecting within three points of the TE1 on DraftKings and six within two points on FanDuel. Let personal preference, salary and game-stack feasibility be your guide when choosing among the likes of Dalton Schultz, Sam LaPorta, Evan Engram, Dalton Kincaid and George Kittle.
Best NFL DFS Week 11 Picks and Building Blocks: Defense/Special Teams
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns: DraftKings ($3,500, 8.8%), FanDuel ($4,000, 12.1%)
Cleveland will be without Deshaun Watson (shoulder) for the remainder of the season, and they are opting to go with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson on Sunday. It would not be a surprise to see P.J. Walker as well. While Walker is more poised and has more NFL experience than the rookie, those are really his only advantages. The Browns will probably run the ball north of 30 times, but even with limited passes, the Steelers have a chance for sacks and turnovers.
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: DraftKings ($3,700, <5.0%), FanDuel ($4,500, 2.3%)
This game is going to be a rock fight, and the Browns have the advantage of being at home with a fierce defense against a bumbling offense led by offensive coordinator Matt Canada. Cleveland has multiple sacks in all but one game to go with eight interceptions and four fumbles in the last five. While Kenny Pickett has only been sacked five times in the last our games, that could easily reverse course in the Factory of Sadness.
Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants: DraftKings ($3,600, 12.3%), FanDuel ($4,700, 10.5%)
This feels like a trap. Washington dealt two of the biggest defensive contributors at the trade deadline, and the Commanders have just one sack and one interception over the last two games. Heck, going back the last four it is seven sacks and five takeaways, but that isn’t great either. Yes, this team could easily fall into three sacks and a pick-six or scoop-and-score, but what if they do not?
Tommy DeVito is probably the only quarterback in the league who is on par with this decimated defense, so anything can happen… it just seems like a situation to avoid.
As you get your best NFL DFS Week 11 picks and lineups prepped on DraftKings and FanDuel, Stokastic can help. We have more free DFS content on the NFL DFS homepage, premium DFS software including NFL Sims and the Lineup Generator, and the best live shows and videos from your favorite analysts on our YouTube channel.
You can also talk NFL DFS picks and strategy with the team and the rest of our sharp community on the Stokastic Discord!
