CFB DFS differs from traditional NFL DFS in a few key areas. Rosters do not require a defense and instead incorporate a superflex where a second quarterback can be rostered. With the exception of short slates, using a second quarterback generally makes the most sense. From there, traditional stacking rules and other general football DFS strategies apply (such as looking at college football ownership projections). With that said, let’s get into the CFB Week 10 DFS picks and projections for Thursday, Nov. 2.
CFB Week 10 DFS Picks and Projections | Nov. 2
Quarterback
Riley Leonard ($7,100): Duke enters Week 10 as a 12.5-point favorite over Wake Forest in a game with a 44 total. After returning from injury in a pair of tough games against Florida State and Louisville, Riley Leonard finally finds a more favorable matchup. Leonard’s efficiency metrics have suffered due to the injury and a rigorous strength of schedule. However, he still accounts for 352 cumulative rushing yard, while averaging 157.4 through the air. Expect both numbers to improve as Leonard puts the injury behind him and finds better matchups.
Behren Morton ($6,500): Texas Tech enters Week 10 as a field goal favorite over TCU in a game with a 59.5 total. Returning from injury, Behren Morton should boost the team’s overall offensive efficiency. Morton doesn’t have much mobility with only 16 cumulative rushing yards. However, he provides enough efficiency as a passer to orchestrate Texas Tech’s air raid offense. At his price, Morton offers sneaky 300-yard passing bonus upside.
Gunnar Watson ($5,500): Troy enters Week 10 as a 5.5 point favorite over South Alabama in a game with a 45.5 total. The Trojans rank 90th in pace and throw the ball 50.3% of the time. Generally a tough player to roster behind his -81 rushing yards, Gunnar Watson enters this slate priced to play. Despite his negative rushing, Watson still averages 267 passing yards per game on 31.1 attempts in what has been a career year passing wise.
Josh Hoover ($8,100):Â Despite coming in as slight underdogs, TCU still ranks third in pace with a 54.4% pass rate. Hoover struggled in his last outing against Kansas State, throwing for 187 yards on 43 attempts. However, Hoover now has 43 and 58 attempts in two straight games. While he isn’t mobile, this passing volume should push him close to the 300-yard passing bonus on most occasions.
Running Back
Tahj Brooks ($7,400): One of four elite running back on this slate, Tahj Brooks averages 22.5 touches per game for 112 rushing and nine receiving yards. Brooks hasn’t seen any fewer than 22 touches in the last four games, with two outings above 30. TCU allows 4.2 yards per carry, setting up Brooks for solid efficiency here.
Kimani Vidal ($7,500): The engine of Troy’s offense, Kimani Vidal averages 22.6 touches per game for 124.3 rushing and 17.4 receiving yards per game. South Alabama looks like a tough matchup on paper, but Vidal hasn’t received fewer than 18 touches in four straight games.
Emani Bailey ($7,700): Another stud running back in an elite game environment, Emani Bailey averages 20.0 touches per game for 106.6 rushing and 13.1 receiving yards. Texas Tech only allows 4.0 yards per carry to opposing rushers, but Bailey’s volume keeps him in play on every slate.
La’Damian Webb ($7,000): Coming in slightly behind the top three running backs listed above, La’Damian Webb averages 17 touches per game, while Kentrell Bullock has seen 11.1 touches per game in the same backfield. With that said, Webb hasn’t seen fewer than 20 touches in any of the last three games. This puts him in play for tournaments and four running back builds.
Jaquez Moore ($4,600): For those looking at a cheaper running back option, Jaquez Moore stands out in his timeshare with Jordan Waters. On the year, Waters averages 11.5 touches per game, while Moore comes in at 9.9. For that reason, it is hard so understand why nearly $2k in salary separates the players. As a 12.5 point favorite, both backs should find room to work against an overrated Wake Forest defense.
Wide Receiver
Caullin Lacy ($7,300): One of the top overall receivers on the slate, Caullin Lacy averages 119 receiving yards per game on 9.5 targets. The matchup against Troy remains difficult, but he stands out as a pass catcher to prioritize based on this volume.
Jordan Moore ($5,700): For those looking at pairing options for Leonard stacks, Jordan Moore and Jalon Calhoun both make sense. Moore draws a slight edge, averaging 7.0 targets per game for 55 yards. However, Calhoun could offer GPP leverage behind his 6.1 targets per game for 54.4 yards. Sahmir Hagans also has some tournament viability as the WR3.
Jabre Barber ($4,400):Â For whatever reason, the entire Troy passing attack comes into this game underpriced. Because of that, it make sense to find a way to Troy’s WR1 Jabre Barber. Barber averages 9.3 targets per game over Troy’s last four contest, racking up 75.3 yards per game on the year.
Coy Eakin ($3,200): Jerand Bradley and Myles Price operate as Texas Tech’s top two pass catchers. However, Coy Eakin has played a major role in recent games. Eakin now has 17 targets over Texas Tech’s last three contests with a route rate north of 80%. As a pure salary saver, Eakin makes sense on this slate.
