Thursday’s CFB DFS slate continues Week 7 with two game. CFB DFS differs from traditional NFL DFS in a few key areas. Rosters do not require a defense and instead incorporate a superflex where a second quarterback can be rostered. With the exception of short slates, using a second quarterback generally makes the most sense. From there, traditional stacking rules and other general football DFS strategies apply (such as looking at college football ownership projections). With that said, let’s get into the CFB Week 7 DFS picks and projections for Thursday, Oct. 12.
CFB Week 7 DFS Picks and Projections | Thursday, Oct. 12
Quarterback
Garrett Greene ($6,900): West Virginia is a 2.5-point favorite over Houston in a game with a 51 total. The Mountaineers rank 127th in plays per game and pass the ball just 33% of the time. However, quarterback Garrett Greene is involved in the run game with 276 cumulative yards. He also missed one complete game and the majority of another. As a passer, Green adds 136 yards per game on 17 attempts. While Green doesn’t compile stats like other quarterbacks, he still is a solid price-adjusted play.
Donovan Smith ($8,000): Houston is a slight underdog to West Virginia but ranks 36th in pace and throws the ball 54.3% of the time. Texas Tech transfer Donovan Smith averages 269.4 yards per game on 38.8 attempts. He also has accounted for 163 cumulative rushing yards this year. West Virginia’s defense ranks 104th in coverage, setting up Smith for aerial success.
Preston Stone ($7,400): SMU is a 12-point favorite in a game with a 49.5 total. The Mustangs rank 31st in pace and throw the ball 49.3% of the time. Legacy quarterback Preston Stone averages 237.2 yards per game on 32 attempts. Stone also has 68 cumulative rushing yards on the year. Though many of Stone’s metrics trail Greene and Smith, his matchup provides an avenue to success. East Carolina currently allows 8.2 yards per pass attempt to opposing quarterbacks.
Running Back
C.J. Donaldson Jr. ($6,300): With West Virginia running the ball more than most other teams, C.J. Donaldson Jr. immediately jumps to the top of the list. Donaldson averages 17.6 touches per game for 71.8 yards. Change-of-pace back Jaylen Anderson missed last week’s game, resulting in 22 touches for Donaldson. Whether Anderson plays or not, Donaldson is the safest running back on the slate.
Parker Jenkins ($5,200): Houston is finally healthy in the backfield and has settled into a four-man committee. Freshman Parker Jenkins has emerged as the top option. Jenkins now has 23 and 15 touches over the last two games, but the 23-touch game came without Tony Mathis Jr., who returned to handle seven touches last week. While Brandon Campbell and Stacy Sneed will also be involved, Jenkins should receive double-digit touches as the lead of a committee.
Rahjai Harris ($4,700): Only the two-game nature of this slate keeps East Carolina players in the DFS conversation, as the team is a large underdog and uses two quarterbacks. Rahjai Harris leads a backfield that will also use Javious Bond and Marlon Gunn Jr.. Gunn has been hurt recently, allowing Harris to see 18 and 17 touches over the last two games. Even if Gunn returns, Harris should have the second-best workload on the slate. With that said, the matchup is tough against an SMU defense allowing just 3.7 yards per attempt on the ground.
Jaylan Knighton ($6,100): SMU uses a different lead back every week. On the year, Miami transfer Jaylan Knighton is averaging 15.3 touches per game for 83.5 rushing yards. However, Velton Gardner led the team with 15 carries last week. In the two games prior, Camar Wheaton had 16 carries to lead SMU. However, that was Knighton’s first game returning from injury. Wheaton also suffered a pre-game injury ahead of SMU’s last contest, making him questionable for Thursday. Even L.J. Johnson Jr. has led the backfield at times, and Tyler Lavine has 11 carries over the last three games. Knighton, Gardner and Wheaton (if active) are the best options to target, followed by Johnson.
Wide Receiver
Samuel Brown ($6,900): Houston has the slate’s premier pass attack, so consider using multiple Houston pass catchers. Samuel Brown leads the group in targets with 9.2 and 100.6 yards per game on a 24.6% target share. Matthew Golden and Joseph Manjack IV aren’t too far behind with 55.2 and 58.4 yards per game. Joshua Cobbs missed last game, pushing Dalton Carnes into a 50% route share and five targets.
R.J. Maryland ($4,700): On top of a nasty running back rotation, SMU also uses seven receivers. With such a split, targeting tight end R.J. Maryland provides the safest path to targets. Maryland leads the team with 23 targets and averages 155 yards per game. He also has the most consistent route rate. Behind him, Jake Bailey, Jordan Kerley, Keyshawn Smith, Romello Brinson, Moochie Dixon, Roderick Daniels and Jordan Hudson are involved, in that order.
Jaylen Johnson ($4,100): Jaylen Johnson leads East Carolina with 41.4 yards per game on 7.8 targets. Behind him, Jsi Hatfield, Chase Sowell and tight end Shane Calhoun also get in on the action. However, none of them average over 5.0 targets per game, making Johnson the clear top price-adjusted play among East Carolina pass catchers.
Rodney Gallagher II ($3,100): On top of a run-heavy offense, West Virginia runs a six-wide receiver rotation. Cortez Braham left the program, somewhat narrowing the rotation. Hudson Clement leads the team with 59.8 yards per game on 4.0 targets, but paying all the way down might make more sense. Rodney Gallagher II saw three targets last game, and his route rate jumped to 54%. This mark trailed only Clement and Devin Carter.
Editor Note: Looking for more 2023 college football predictions or CFB Week 7 DFS picks? Experts are to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of OddsShopper’s’ college football articles. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — or try it out now!
