College football Week 7 continues with a two-game Wednesday slate. CFB DFS differs from traditional NFL DFS in a few key areas. Rosters do not require a defense and instead incorporate a superflex where a second quarterback can be rostered. With the exception of short slates, using a second quarterback generally makes the most sense. From there, traditional stacking rules and other general football DFS strategies apply (such as looking at college football ownership projections). With that said, let’s get into the CFB Week 7 DFS picks and projections for Wednesday, Oct. 11.
CFB Week 7 DFS Picks and Projections | Wednesday, Oct. 11
Quarterback
Diego Pavia ($8,300): New Mexico State is a 3.5-point favorite over Sam Houston State in a game with a 41.5 total. On a slate with putrid quarterback options, Diego Pavia stands out above the rest, despite playing for an offense ranked 128th in pace with a 44.6% pass rate. Pavia averages 221.5 passing yards per game on 21.3 attempts. However, he also accounts for 314 rushing yards, giving him the best floor/ceiling combo on the slate.
Keyone Jenkins ($6,700): Florida International is a 1-point favorite over UTEP in a game with a 44 total. Despite suffering a concussion late last week, Keyone Jenkins expects to suit up. FIU ranks 59th in pace and throws the ball 48.5% of the time. This has allowed Jenkins to average 250.2 yards per game on 28 attempts. Somewhat mobile, Jenkins also accounts for 88 cumulative rushing yards. Behind Pavia, he remains the clear No. 2 quarterback on this slate.
Keegan Shoemaker ($6,100): The underdog in this matchup, Sam Houston State ranks 100th in pace and throws the ball 50.8% of the time. While Keegan Shoemaker has been disappointing, he still makes sense over any of the four UTEP quarterbacks who could start. Shoemaker averages a lackluster 184 passing yards per game on top of his 61 cumulative rushing yards. This is a slate to look at running back or receiver in the superflex.
Running Back
Deion Hankins ($5,400): After battling through injury in recent weeks, Deion Hankins returned to his role as the head of a committee for UTEP last week. He out-touched Torrance Burgess Jr. 16-11 and handled most of the pass game work. FIU allows 5.6 yards per carry to opposing backs, setting both up for efficiency.
Shomari Lawrence ($6,200): FIU uses a 50/50 committee between Shomari Lawrence and Kejon Owens. Lawrence averages 10.3 touches per game and most of the passing game work. Owens comes in at 7.2 touches per game with a better role on early downs. UTEP allows 5.6 yards per rush attempt, giving both backs viability.
Star Thomas ($6,500): New Mexico State uses a three-back committee highlighted by Star Thomas. Thomas 41.5 rushing and 21.7 receiving yards per game on 10.5 touches. Behind him, Jamoni Jones and Monte Watkins average 5.7 and 4.5 touches per game as well. Sam Houston State allows 4.5 yards per rush attempt.
Tobias Weaver ($3,000): Sam Houston State has injuries to their top four running backs. This means Tobias Weaver, Jalen Washington and wildcat quarterback Trapper Pannell should handle most of the carries. Pannell leads the group with 11 carries on the year, but DraftKings designates him as a quarterback. Weaver received two carries in relief last week and looks most likely to lead the backfield in Week 7.
Wide Receiver
Kris Mitchell ($7,400): The safest receiver on the slate, Kris Mitchell averages 7.7 targets and 91.7 receiving yards per game on a 30.3% target share.
Noah Smith ($5,900): On top of the backfield injuries, Sam Houston State also lost their top two receivers. Since then, Noah Smith has emerged as the top receiving option with 26 targets over the last two weeks. Malik Phillips and Al’vonte Woodard round out the top three receivers for this team.
Kelly Akharaiyi ($5,400): Tyrin Smith is considered doubtful for this contest and he may even redshirt this year. This puts Kelly Akharaiyi into the WR1 role, averaging 7.8 targets per game over the last four. Jeremiah Ballard also averages 7.0 targets per game in that span, making both solid plays. Even Marcus Bellon has 16 targets over the last two games, making the UTEP pass catchers similar plays. With salary mattering little on this slate, finding a way to Akharaiyi makes the most sense.
Jonathan Brady ($5,700): By far the worst group of pass catchers to target on the slate, New Mexico State uses a gnarly rotation on top of their run-heavy offense. Jonathan Brady leads the team with a 17.6% target share and 62% route share. This equates to 3.7 targets per game for 45.5 yards. Kordell David would be the top pivot behind a 69.6% route rate and a cheaper price.
Editor Note: Looking for more 2023 college football predictions or CFB Week 7 DFS picks? Experts are to break down this college football season — make sure to check out the rest of OddsShopper’s’ college football articles. If you still need more picks, our market-based betting model might just be for you — or try it out now!
